Let's make fun of Trump, bash him, etc. while we can!

[David Horn]

(08-17-2016, 02:16 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(08-17-2016, 06:48 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-17-2016, 02:35 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: ... Democrats are concerned about helping the disadvantaged, the underdog, the poor, the discriminated against; those going through hard times; those who need a hand up, not just a handout. Which could be you or me. Republicans represent those like Donald Trump or the Koch Brothers who kick people out on the street, who exploit people with low wages and bad working conditions, and who destroy the environment and speculate with the economy. They support gutting social programs for the poor, on the theory that if you then give tax breaks to the rich, business will improve and the benefits will trickle-down, and the poor will either learn self-reliance, or suffer due to their own failure, or their membership in some inferior group. That's what Reagan thought, and that's what he did. But those policies have "died of a theory," just like racism before the Confederacy. They don't work, because if you give the breaks to the already wealthy and powerful, they say thank you very very much, and then pocket the money. There is no trickle; it's a tinkle.

This is the old Democratic focus that is just not there anymore.  Today's Democrats favor niche movements, primarily minority based.  They also favor Wall Street.  Their coalition is the result of decades of drift; the GOP is similarly changed.  Bernie tried to move them back in the direction they occupied at their policy peak, and that may still happen in time ... just not this time.

It never was a Democratic focus.  The Populists and the Socialists had this focus, which today shows up in Trump's and Sander's appeal.  It was never a majority.  The Democratic party as Labor Party-lite was an artifact arising out of the 1932 election. A "1932 moment" has been trying to form for 16 years now.  Two massive bubble bursts have occurred that would in the past have collapsed the economy and forced a "1932 moment".  In both, the establishment has managed to craft a response that allowed the status quo to continue. 

Some of the romantics here feel the end will come when the disgruntled working Americans, either on the Right or the Left, rise up and demand a new deal.  Plenty of scholarship has shown that this simply does not happen. The times when it appears to happen (e.g. 1789, 1917) it turns out that the movement was led by some dispossessed elites who mobilized the masses to put themselves on top in place of the old elites (i.e. meet the new boss--same as the old boss).

If the economic problems of our time are to be resolved in this 4T, it will come from a subset of the political elite who determine that it is in their own best interest to abandon their old economic elite allies to either gain or preserve political power. Right now the route to career success amongst political elites is to maintain existing arrangements with economic elites and to continue to see the world as they do.  A collapse of the economy will change that calculus, creating another "1932 moment" when some group of political entrepreneurs, probably from within one of the existing parties will decide to abandon the economic elite to further their political fortunes.

This does not necessarily require a new election, it can be a faction of policy advisors who win the ear of a panicking chief executive.

If there is any validity to saecular theory, then we should see conditions for change ripen in a 4T.  Trump has pumped-up the LMC white males, and some of the women as well, but, I have to agree, I don't see Trump as a movement leader or his troops as an army.  Stagnation, on the other hand, may move the PTB toward something, but what exactly is up for grabs. 

I don't see Hillary being the change agent.  I don't see it coming from her aids either, since she tends to hang with the same unimaginative crowd.  Article I rabble rousers, like Newt, don't get far so that seems to be a dead end.  Ditto for the private sector actors who have already succeeded in stealing everything in sight, making things worse for everyone but them.  Post-modern academe is out for obvious reasons.  Barring a worse crash than 2007-9 or a major war, I don't see it happening.

It's one of the reasons I think this may fester until the next 2T.