08-18-2016, 01:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-18-2016, 01:56 PM by Eric the Green.)
(08-18-2016, 01:16 PM)David Horn Wrote:(08-18-2016, 12:43 PM)playwrite Wrote: You all are way too pessimistic.
The infrastructure necessary for electric driverless vehicles will make Eisenhower's interstate build out look like a piker and thus the 50s/60s economy/bull market rather tame. It's a race but they are already testing Uber driverless cars out in Pittsburg. All that an economic contraction would do is hasten the Congress in reaction to provide the stimulus for the build out.
What you are also missing is that the GOP is effectively destroyed as a national political power. It was Bush, Trump is just the cheery on top of the sunday. Adams ending the dominate Jefferson party, Buchanan ending Jackson's, Hoover ended Lincoln's, Carter ended FDR's and Bush/Trump ended Ray-gun's. That paves the way for eventual recognition and full employment of our monetary system - deficit hawks will be eliminated from the federal government (perhaps taken out and shot for all the harm they have inflicted) and replaced by technocrats that will keep a controlling hand on inflation. There will be much more federal expenditure, but in a public/private partnership manner that will keep the deposed remnants of the GOP at bay.
The economy is going to boom and it will be done under an increasingly Progressive government, including the SCOTUS, that will seal the deal for decades. The hillbillies, like Classic, will eventually come around or at least their kids and grandkids will.
This may be true in the future, even the near future, but it's not true now. We have two parties consisting of illogical coalitions, and the fact that the GOP is hitting the wall first doesn't make the Dems any less at risk. So the Republican Party fractures, and then what? I believe that the successor has to embrace the money, and bid adieu to the rest, preferring that to the exact opposite. If the money stays, they will moderate all the RW nonsense and draw the UMC out of the Democratic Party. If the money leaves, the GOP will become the old Democratic Party of the late 19th century. They'll do better with the money, so that's what I expect.
That leaves the Dems with a coalition of niche special interests that tend to make demands on the party but fail to unite around any issues not their own. In the current environment, the system will only support two major parties. Money can fend for itself. What about the herd-of-cats party?
Norm Chomsky once made the point that the term "special interests" when applied in this way actually means "the population." The Democrats still represent the people and their interests. They can unite just fine, and push their economic agenda in a political environment where inequality and opportunity are big themes again. The "Trumpsters" can only push their deceptions so far. They can fool the uneducated hillbillies, but they are not enough to win elections. Their racist appeal works for some, but meanwhile less-powerful groups and ethnicities are fighting back.
These "niche" interests have a point. You can't deny that those who are disadvantaged in our society economically are also, in many cases, those who have been and still are discriminated against. Black lives matter, and job discrimination, white cronyism, police profiling, the drug war, and so on are real issues for the lower classes, of whom blacks and browns make up the majority. The women are also more likely to be disadvantaged in many cases, so their issues of equal pay and family leave etc. are also economic class issues. Ultimately the class and the rights issues are one issue.
I think playwrite is closer to the mark. Money dominates politics today, but a new Supreme Court will make reform possible. I expect the reform era to begin in earnest around 2022. There will be further turmoil from the right wing after that, but I expect the storm to pass, leaving the political landscape nourished for a constructive and active 1T. It's quite possible, though, that the party system could be quite different from what we have today. As Silents and Eisenhower Boomers leave and Millennials take over the voting landscape, our appetite to change the system could grow. I'm not sure how far it will go.
The zero year always marks a major shift. It could mean that Hillary's Democrats are thrown out, like Carter's (and Bill Clinton's) were. But the indicators say something else: the party in power will continue in power in 2020, and a shake up of some kind could occur in 2024. Millennials will be at their maximum power voting-wise in that election, if they make use of it. The Crisis Climax follows the 2024 election immediately and lasts for 4 years. Stay tuned!