Bob Butler Wrote:When reading your posts, I have long and often noted an emphasis you place on the importance of the elites. This might be described as a world view clash. When analyzing a given crisis, you will focus on the elites, while I will focus on the ordinary people.Quite true, but I used to think like you do. In fact the emphasis on elites comes from the influence secular cycle dynamics, which is a field I have been exploring for several years. My views comes from scholarship concerning how movements that lack elite sponsorship generally fail.
Quote:I am not going to dismiss or make light of the role of the elites. In the examples you list above, one can project elites fighting over financial and political power, while the bulk of the population might care about taxation without representation, slavery, and life without increasingly grievous economic collapses.Well the bulk of the population did not pay taxes to the British government. As far as slavery is concerned it is not might. Most white men were racists and did not care whether or not slaves were free. There were many who bought into the Slave Power conspiracy (that said the goal of Southern slave-owners was the join forces with financial elites to enslave poor white men). These people opposed the expansion of slavery outside of the South. As long as it was kept bottled up in the Southern states (now a minority in Senate as well as the House) that was fine. In fact this was the platform Lincoln ran on.
Lincoln only won 49% of the vote in the states that remained in the Union in 1860, so he hardly had a mandate. It was only after the war, when northern Republicans were able to wave the bloody shirt that the North became solidly Republican. Lincoln knew this, which is why he framed the war as solely about restoring the union.
As for the last crisis, sure the bulk of the population (elites too) cared about economic misery of the working class. And when those concerns had elite backing, things happened (the Progressive Era, the New Deal). When the common people rose up in rebellion in 1919, not so much, there were no more progressive policy changes, elites closed ranks, and the nascent rebellion was suppressed much as the Brits had done in 1848. The county who just eight years earlier had shouted for the Left, wanted nothing to do with them now and went for a “Return to Normalcy” and conservative rule.
Quote:I'd add that the motivations and values of the common people are often very different from the elites.Motivations yes, values not so much. Elites are people too and they will often share similar views with regular people on a whole range of political and cultural issues.
Quote:But crises are not settled in smoked filled rooms by a handful of elites.Huh? Since when can a 4T conflict be handled by negotiation. Crisis is resolved by victory for one side.
Quote:Conflicts can be settled at the ballot box.Once so far.
Quote:Conflicts can be settled on the battle field.Every other time.
Quote:It (Civil War) would never have gone to the battle field without John Brown and the abolitionists though.Do you really think if there had been no John Brown, the North would have let the South secede? Can you provide any evidence in support of this notion?
Quote:In our current situation, groups of elites did not decide to make Donald Trump president.Donald Trump is himself an elite. So how can you say that the Trump phenomenon is not elite-led?
Quote:The Donald's place was decided by a whole bunch of people angry at the Republican establishment.Elites are not magicians. They exercise influence by working with the resources that are available. Folks have been angry at the Republican establishment for a long time. That’s what the Tea party was originally about. Similarly, OWS was disgusted with the so-called Progressive elites.
The TP was taken over by Republican elites much like the Know-Nothings were taken over by Whig elites in the mid 1850’s. OWS had no elite involvement and it withered away. Since their movement was co-opted and their champions unable to dislodge Obama, the Tea Party declined. The anger remained until another elite came along (Trump) and channeled it for his own purposes. Do you seriously think Donald Trump is about anything else besides Donald Trump? So how this is count as the common people creating the change they want?