Presidential election, 2016

[pbrower2a]

This may be the critical polling of 2016, the polling delineating the utter collapse of the Trump campaign over one weekend. In one state, Donald Trump went from being one point ahead (inconclusive about who leads) to 19% behind. There's an unusual amount of material here, but it looks telling. The numerical difference between Thursday and Sunday (Saturday and Sunday polling were lumped together) shows how things looked in Wisconsin before the disclosure of some horrible behavior of Donald Trump, what happened in polling on the day of the disclosure began, and how Donald Trump fared after this disclosure hit the media.

Crotch-grabs may not fit the legal definition of rape, but they are at the least sexual battery. Assault is the attempt or threat of a deliberate or reckless, harmful or offensive contact without even if by an object not attached to the would-be assaulter . Battery is the reckless or deliberate, harmful or offensive contact. No ethnic, religious, or class culture supports what Donald Trump admitted to doing a few years ago.

...................

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School. This is one of the most interesting polls, as it shows how a news story can wipe out a campaign or show the collapse of that campaign, even day to day. This can show how a campaign so fails due to the turpitude of the nominee, as if in a scandal of bribery or embezzlement.

Nobody expected to show this, but someone saw this happening and chose to give a four-day chronicle in the form of polls. What this very good pollster did was brilliant; it leaves someone like me the material for analysis. Maybe the data was so strange that it required its own analysis.

I am guessing that the route for going from one side to another, between Candidate A to Candidate B, goes as follows:

Candidate A >> undecided >> Candidate B

Live Stream: https://law-media.marquette.edu/Mediasit...9adcb0381d.

Data:

Clinton 44 (41 last time)
Trump 37 (38)
Johnson 9 (11)
Stein 3 (2)

Party ID (w/leaners): D-47, R-44

878 LV, 10/6-10/9: Half last Thu, half Fri-Sun, all before Sun debate

DAY BY DAY BREAKDOWN (much larger MOE):

THU: Trump 41, Clinton 40 (T+1)
FRI: Clinton 44, Trump 38 (C+6)
SAT+SUN: Clinton 49, Trump 30 (C+19)

SENATE: Feingold 46, Johnson 44
.......................

Among evangelical likely voters in WI:

Thursday: Trump 64%, Clinton 24%
Friday: Trump 55%, Clinton 32%
Sat+Sun: Trump 47%, Clinton 31%

Among white LVs without college degrees in WI:

Thu: Trump 48%, Clinton 33%
Fri: Trump 41%, Clinton 38%
Sat+Sun: Clinton 42%, Trump 35%


....My analysis.

Fact #1: Wisconsin was close all summer until the disclosure of the crotch-grabbing.
Fact #2: The exposure of the story had swift effect, probably because it involved something with S-E-X-U-A-L overtones.
Fact #3: Although it might not have had much of an effect on people predisposed to vote Democratic it hit others.
Fact #4: Donald Trump still leads among Christian evangelicals, but his likely vote among them has gone from 64% to 47%.
Fact #5: I have seen scandals erupt, and I have never seen them undone. Primary campaigns collapse. Nominees find their chances of winning drop off completely.
Fact #6: Voters have shown themselves particularly willing to abandon a nominee over sex, bribery, or embezzlement. They may return to the cause that they recently supported -- but only in a different politician who did nothing to betray trust. Someone offering hat Donald trump offered throughout most of 2016 will be challenging for the Presidency as early as 2020. Liberals beware: this person will likely have more control of his libido.

I see no recovery for Donald Trump, who cannot undo the damage from the exposure of his sordid sex life. Having to choose between the Saturday-Sunday polling and the polling for either Thursday or Friday or some composite thereof, I go with Saturday/Sunday. The political equivalent of a train-wreck cannot be undone in a month. The 19% lead looks like the reality for now. I'm going with that. Newer data is better, and Marquette Law School is a very good pollster. The 'inconsistency' cannot represent different samples or a change in polling techniques; it reflects that Wisconsin voters turned sharply against Donald Trump very fast in Wisconsin for something that he cannot dodge, undo, or trivialize.

A vehicle collision can turn a $100K car into a piece of scrap metal in seconds. Putting it back together requires the wrecked object to be reprocessed through a forge capable of melting the metal from a Mercedes-Benz into metal that might become a Dodge Neon.

Just look at the collapse in support among 'evangelical' voters. Donald Trump has betrayed them, and I see little chance of him winning the once-high levels of support among that he had on Thursday.

But the level of support for Hillary Clinton still falls just short of 50%.



Wisconsin with Clinton up 19 is consistent with Clinton up 10 in Ohio in another poll.

Wisconsin went 62-37 in 1964; it has rarely been a Democratic run away. Obama did win it by 16% in 2008, which is about in this range.



Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®:





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9% -- saturation 7
50-54.9% -- saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9% -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 338
Donald Trump ® 138
(in white) ties -- 36

gray - no polling after the first Presidential debate unless I have no cause to expect that an adequate change could have happened in the likely vote of the state.