10-16-2016, 12:04 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2016, 01:03 AM by Eric the Green.)
The keys are in! Lichtman's system predicts Trump! But he's hedging!
One thing I didn't know about Lichtman's system: it only takes 6 keys to go against the party in power to swing it to the other party; not a majority.
I'm not sure I agree that there was no major foreign policy breakthrough, when the Iran deal, the Cuban opening and the Paris climate accord were all big deals.
For the first time though, he is hedging his bets and saying Trump is such a bad candidate that he may not benefit from the archetypal situation that 6 keys against the party holding the White House means a challenger party victory.
He says that if Gary Johnson's numbers decline, the party in power may get back a key, and also might get another key back if the IS is rolled back from Mosul or driven out of Iraq by November 8th.
If he doesn't change his mind, and Hillary wins (as seems likely now considering the polls and Trump's present and past behavior), my system will beat his, since I have predicted Hillary winning since May, with no hedging needed. And of course, I hit 2012 on the nose, and went so far as to write that my New Moon before election method predicted Bush would win in 2004 and Obama in 2008, although my horoscope point system was not fully developed and applied yet.
https://pollyvote.com/en/components/inde...ite-house/
One thing I didn't know about Lichtman's system: it only takes 6 keys to go against the party in power to swing it to the other party; not a majority.
I'm not sure I agree that there was no major foreign policy breakthrough, when the Iran deal, the Cuban opening and the Paris climate accord were all big deals.
For the first time though, he is hedging his bets and saying Trump is such a bad candidate that he may not benefit from the archetypal situation that 6 keys against the party holding the White House means a challenger party victory.
He says that if Gary Johnson's numbers decline, the party in power may get back a key, and also might get another key back if the IS is rolled back from Mosul or driven out of Iraq by November 8th.
If he doesn't change his mind, and Hillary wins (as seems likely now considering the polls and Trump's present and past behavior), my system will beat his, since I have predicted Hillary winning since May, with no hedging needed. And of course, I hit 2012 on the nose, and went so far as to write that my New Moon before election method predicted Bush would win in 2004 and Obama in 2008, although my horoscope point system was not fully developed and applied yet.
https://pollyvote.com/en/components/inde...ite-house/