Presidential election, 2016

[Eric the Green]

(11-02-2016, 02:49 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: This from The Cook Political Report on October 28th:

You’ll Likely Be Reading One Of These 5 Articles The Day After The Election

I would set up a forum poll, but I'm not technically disposed to do so.  Which article do you think we'll be reading on November 9th?

Anyway, after the release of the Access Hollywood tape of Trump but prior to the renewed FBI investigation into Clinton's emails, I would have assigned the following odds to the five scenarios laid out in the article:

1.  The Clinton Landslide         0%  (Like Cenk Uygur of The Young Turks, I always thought it would be a reasonably close race.)

2.  Modest Clinton Majority     25%

3.  2012 Map Redux               75%

4.  Narrow Clinton Nail-Biter     0%

5.  Trump Shocks the World     0%

However, after Comey's "bombshell" letter to Congress last week, along with evidence that Clinton and Trump are in a "dead heat" in national and key battleground state polls, the odds look like this to me now:

1.  The Clinton Landslide          0%  (The word "landslide" to me recalls such elections as 1932, 1964, 1972 and 1984; 2016, no way.)

2.  Modest Clinton Majority       0%

3.  2012 Map Redux               25%

4.  Narrow Clinton Nail-Biter    50%   

5.  Trump Shocks the World    25%  (Post-Brexit, and with Clinton (and DNC) scandals galore, I can no longer rule out this scenario.)

My best guess with a week to go is that the following RealClearPolitics electoral map is what we'll wake up to on November 9th, which is essentially Scenario 4.  Scenario 4 is actually most problematic--in a way--in that it plays into the hands of Trump's inflammatory rhetoric, his constant pre-emptive claim that the election is "rigged."  He may not concede, as is his wont, if he loses by a razor-thin margin.  And worse, the voters who have supported him every step of the way, may be tempted to act out in ways that sow social chaos for a time.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...s_ups.html


I also agree with NBC's Chuck Todd that Trump only prevails if he somehow manages to win any one of three "blue firewall" states:

Chuck Todd Electoral Map: Trump Has To Win PA, MI, or WI; "The Comey Effect"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2...ffect.html

I think it's too late for a poll here on this now anyway.

As I see it, #2 and #3 should be switched, so that it reads:

1.  The Clinton Landslide          0%  (The word "landslide" to me recalls such elections as 1932, 1964, 1972 and 1984)

2.  2012 Map Redux               0%

3.  Modest Clinton Majority      25%

4.  Narrow Clinton Nail-Biter    50%   

5.  Trump Shocks the World    25%

The 2012 map was a sizeable Obama majority, at least in the presidential election and in the electoral college. A "modest" majority would be something less than that.

It looks like #4 right now. But trends are volatile. I still think Hillary could rebound back up to #2. It needs to happen, probably, in order for Hillary to be able to govern (have a Democratic Senate, and a House with at least a much-reduced Republicrap majority.