05-26-2016, 11:14 AM
Mostly from another site, with some adaptation. The poster posed the proposition that Donald Trump could win in a landslide.
I see Donald Trump as a Republican mirror image (except for being a rake) of Jimmy Carter, an 'outsider' who has very specific ideas of how to change America and unable to achieve them -- and having no Plan B. There might be something to running the federal government like a business -- except that justice, diplomacy, welfare, and the Armed Services cannot be run on profit-and loss bases.
The only effective President who had little-to-no experience in elected office who was at all effective since the Civil War was Dwight Eisenhower. Ike at the least had the difficult task of lobbying for funds in a Depression economy with a war-loathing populace, so he got some idea of how Congress works. Trump has no legislative experience, and no experience as a government executive even in a cabinet position. (Herbert Hoover had experience as the very popular Secretary of Commerce).
They might have done well in 'Congressional and other' elections in 2016 -- but he will have to get miracles and dodge any possible economic downturn in 2017 and 2018 to avoid a scenario analogous to 2006 for Congressional Republicans. Get an economic downturn and have no idea of how to stop it except doing more of the same to intensify hardships for potential voters, and the Democrats will have elections like those of 1930.
Donald Trump is a crony capitalist. If he should sign off on the destruction of the welfare state while cutting taxes for the super-rich, then he could be Herbert Hoover, Version 2.0
Even poor, white Christian fundamentalist Protestants in the South have their limits. An image of America which looks like some old Bible-related movies of the 1950s in which amoral elites indulge themselves with no limits while the masses suffer extreme poverty will create plenty of opportunities for Democrats.
Republicans would have nobody to primary him in 2020 if the economy goes sour. If the situation is more like 1980 in which Donald Trump has an administrative mess and no clue of how to solve things, then he will be weakened in a primary. Either way he loses. See "1932" and "1980".
FDR, Version 2.0... someone who has resisted the national trend of austerity for the poor and enhanced indulgence for elites, should America have the start of a Great Depression, Version 2.2. If it is simply an administrative mess, then look to Barack Obama, Version 2.0 as a memory of the last somewhat-effective President.
...imagine an electoral map in which the Democratic winner wins all but roughly 50 electoral votes, because that is what 1932 and 1980 maps were. Basically take all states that Carter won in 1976 and Obama won in 2008 and add Arizona.
So here is the consequence of a Trump win of the Presidency in 2016 -- the Presidential election of 2020
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;5]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=1;;5&AK=2;;5&AZ=1;;5&AR=1;;5&CA=1;;5&CO=1;;5&CT=1;;5&DE=1;;5&DC=1;;5&FL=1;;5&GA=1;;5&HI=1;;5&ID=2;;5&IL=1;;5&IN=1;;5&IA=1;;5&KS=2;;5&KY=1;;5&LA=1;;5&MD=1;;5&MA=1;;5;&MI=1;;5&MN=1;;5&MS=1;;5&MO=1;;5&MT=2;;5&NV=1;;5&NH=1;;5&NJ=1;;5&NM=1;;5&NY=1;;5&NC=1;;5&ND=2;;5&OH=1;;5&OK=2;;5&OR=1;;5&PA=1;;5&RI=1;;5&SC=1;;5&SD=2;;5&TN=1;;5&TX=1;;5&UT=2;;5&VT=1;;5&VA=1;;5&WA=1;;5&WV=1;;5&WI=1;;5&WY=2;;5&ME=1;;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;;5&NE1=1;1;5&NE2=1;1;5&NE3=2;1;5)
Amy Klobuchar, D-MN
Donald Trump, R-NY, Incumbent
(OK, you might trade Montana and the Dakotas for Alabama, or Alaska and Montana for West Virginia. But just look at what is happening to the House and Senate in 2020. Democrats are making big gains in both Houses of Congress, especially in the South. Left-leaning populism analogous to that of the Carter era is back. It may still be conservative on social issues but hostile to the plutocratic agenda that came to dominate in the Mountain and Deep South. This is practically a revival of the New Deal, which fits the aftermath of a President as much a failure as Herbert Hoover).
As for the generational angle not welcome on Leip's Atlas of American Elections: I picked Amy Klobuchar because she was born just before the Boom-X divide in 1960. She will be the last Boomer President, her second term ending when she is 69 in 2029... at the most. America will be ready for a 60-something X'er as President, for which America will be well prepared in the dawning 1T. That new President will be much like Truman, Eisenhower... or Obama, who has everything but the age right. Obama was born in 1961, and he is definitely not a Boomer.
I see Donald Trump as a Republican mirror image (except for being a rake) of Jimmy Carter, an 'outsider' who has very specific ideas of how to change America and unable to achieve them -- and having no Plan B. There might be something to running the federal government like a business -- except that justice, diplomacy, welfare, and the Armed Services cannot be run on profit-and loss bases.
The only effective President who had little-to-no experience in elected office who was at all effective since the Civil War was Dwight Eisenhower. Ike at the least had the difficult task of lobbying for funds in a Depression economy with a war-loathing populace, so he got some idea of how Congress works. Trump has no legislative experience, and no experience as a government executive even in a cabinet position. (Herbert Hoover had experience as the very popular Secretary of Commerce).
Quote:Presumably Republicans do quite well in Congressional and other elections, strengthening their control in the Senate and in state governments across the country. What happens next (after Atlas liberals collectively faint)?
They might have done well in 'Congressional and other' elections in 2016 -- but he will have to get miracles and dodge any possible economic downturn in 2017 and 2018 to avoid a scenario analogous to 2006 for Congressional Republicans. Get an economic downturn and have no idea of how to stop it except doing more of the same to intensify hardships for potential voters, and the Democrats will have elections like those of 1930.
Quote:* Does Trump acquiesce to the Republican establishment and sign off on some kind of "Ryan Plan" that eviscerates social spending while slashing taxes for the wealthy, or does he stick to his idiosyncratic guns and clash with Congressional GOP leadership?
Donald Trump is a crony capitalist. If he should sign off on the destruction of the welfare state while cutting taxes for the super-rich, then he could be Herbert Hoover, Version 2.0
Quote:* Will Democrats make big gains in the 2018 midterm elections (despite a map which forces them to be quite defensive)?
Even poor, white Christian fundamentalist Protestants in the South have their limits. An image of America which looks like some old Bible-related movies of the 1950s in which amoral elites indulge themselves with no limits while the masses suffer extreme poverty will create plenty of opportunities for Democrats.
Quote:* Does Trump get primaried in 2020? If so, by whom?
Republicans would have nobody to primary him in 2020 if the economy goes sour. If the situation is more like 1980 in which Donald Trump has an administrative mess and no clue of how to solve things, then he will be weakened in a primary. Either way he loses. See "1932" and "1980".
Quote:* Which Democrats run for President in 2020?
FDR, Version 2.0... someone who has resisted the national trend of austerity for the poor and enhanced indulgence for elites, should America have the start of a Great Depression, Version 2.2. If it is simply an administrative mess, then look to Barack Obama, Version 2.0 as a memory of the last somewhat-effective President.
...imagine an electoral map in which the Democratic winner wins all but roughly 50 electoral votes, because that is what 1932 and 1980 maps were. Basically take all states that Carter won in 1976 and Obama won in 2008 and add Arizona.
So here is the consequence of a Trump win of the Presidency in 2016 -- the Presidential election of 2020
Amy Klobuchar, D-MN
Donald Trump, R-NY, Incumbent
(OK, you might trade Montana and the Dakotas for Alabama, or Alaska and Montana for West Virginia. But just look at what is happening to the House and Senate in 2020. Democrats are making big gains in both Houses of Congress, especially in the South. Left-leaning populism analogous to that of the Carter era is back. It may still be conservative on social issues but hostile to the plutocratic agenda that came to dominate in the Mountain and Deep South. This is practically a revival of the New Deal, which fits the aftermath of a President as much a failure as Herbert Hoover).
As for the generational angle not welcome on Leip's Atlas of American Elections: I picked Amy Klobuchar because she was born just before the Boom-X divide in 1960. She will be the last Boomer President, her second term ending when she is 69 in 2029... at the most. America will be ready for a 60-something X'er as President, for which America will be well prepared in the dawning 1T. That new President will be much like Truman, Eisenhower... or Obama, who has everything but the age right. Obama was born in 1961, and he is definitely not a Boomer.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.