06-09-2016, 12:22 PM
(06-09-2016, 09:53 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: If Trump does not win Pennsylvania, I think he loses. He has to crack a hole in the blue wall, and that's the only crack that can win it for him. If he loses PA, then he loses VA, which is trending more blue. He loses NH for the same reason. He loses WI and the other industrial-midwestern blue wall states for the same reason. He loses Nevada for the same reason and because of the hispanic vote. If he still wins North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Florida, and the entire red wall, but loses PA, then he loses.
I think you're right about PA.
PPP has some very good and insightful analysis -
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/...close.html
Quote:Pennsylvania Close; Sanders Supporter Unity Would Make It Not Close
PPP's new Pennsylvania poll finds a close race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the state, although both a generic Democratic candidate and Bernie Sanders have more substantial leads that bode well for Clinton's chances if she can get the party unified around her in the weeks ahead.
Clinton has 41% to 40% for Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 3%. In a head to head match up, Clinton and Trump tie at 44%. Similarly to what we found on the Florida poll we released yesterday, Republicans are more unified around Trump (79/8) than Democrats are around Clinton (75/15). That dynamic is what's making the state competitive.
Democrats lead a generic ballot question for President 45/41, which is pretty similar to Barack Obama's margin of victory in the state in 2012. Bernie Sanders has a substantial advantage over Trump, 45/36, with Johnson at 5% and Stein at 1%. In a head to head contest Sanders leads Trump 51/39.
Pennsylvania is a great microcosm of the issue Clinton faces in winning over Sanders fans. Among people who support Sanders in a head to head match up with Trump, only 72% support Clinton in the general. 10% would go to Trump, 6% to Stein, 4% to Johnson, and 9% are undecided. If Clinton could win over even just half of those Sanders supporting hold outs her lead over Trump would go from a tenuous 41-40 to a comfortable 47-40. Whether it's possible for her to do that time will tell.
This is why the Bernie ass-kissing is now on steroids. It's why any Progressive, even in states behind the Blue Wall, should be encouraging the Bern's to move to the Hillary train... or start writing their apology to their kids and grandkids for enabling a President Trump, and a SCOTUS at least as scary but much more long lasting.