Presidential election, 2016

[pbrower2a]

Comment: Donald Trump is so inept at keeping together what remains of the George W. Bush coalition that this is a consequence:

(From electoral-vote.com)


Trump Is Making Red States More Competitive
While the Republican primaries were a wild ride, with a newbie beating over a dozen experienced politicians, the general election is following the usual script more closely, at least in terms of the map (see below). Not only is Hillary Clinton winning California handily and Donald Trump winning Texas with ease, but most of the other states are also polling in line with the 2012 election results. Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight has made a scatterplot showing the current average for each state vs. the 2012 final result:


In every state that Obama won in 2016, Clinton is now leading, often by a substantial margin. But the reverse is not true: Trump is not leading in all the Romney states and in some of the states where he is leading, it is not by much. A number of polls have shown Clinton ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, although others have shown Trump ahead. Basically, they have become swing states that go back and forth as new polls come in. Depending on your capacity for believing very strange things, maybe even Utah and South Carolina are competitive, although we have our doubts.
The map wasn't always as stable as it is now. Consider the 1972, 1976, and 1980 electoral maps:


As you can see, there were massive shifts from 1972 to 1976 and again from 1976 to 1980. Basically, the country was far less polarized then than it is now. Currently, being on the blue team or the red team is not only about who you vote for, but reflects just about every aspect of life, from where you live to your attitude about religion. If someone showed that Democrats like basketball while Republicans like golf, it wouldn't surprise us. Actually, someone has showed this—more below. (V)
Republican Culture vs. Democratic Culture
As noted above, the divide between Republicans and Democrats goes beyond politics, and has a strong cultural element. "Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd once characterized it, symbolically, as being "Starbucks nation" versus "Chick-Fil-A country." FiveThirtyEight liked Todd's way of thinking, but they found Whole Foods versus Cracker Barrel to be a more instructive comparison.
A few years ago, UW-Madison political scientist Ken Goldstein decided that he wanted to get even more specific. Fortunately for him, he happens to live in a particularly polarized state, so it was easy to survey the cultural differences between Republicans and Democrats. Among his findings:

• Media: Republicans tend to prefer radio and the Internet; Democrats tend to favor newspapers and television
  
  
• TV Channels: Republicans like Fox News, the Golf Channel, the History Channel, the Speed Channel, ESPN and Country Music Television; Democrats like MSNBC, CNN, Comedy Central, Lifetime and Bravo. Everyone likes the Weather Channel, Nat Geo, and the Food Network, though.
  
  
• TV Shows: Republicans love "Survivor" and police procedurals; Democrats prefer "60 Minutes."
  
  
• Sports: Republicans watch golf and car racing; Democrats watch basketball and hockey; both watch football and baseball.
  

George W. Bush's campaign famously used this sort of data to guide their advertising decisions—for example, buying copious amounts of time on "CSI" and "NYPD Blue." There can be no doubt that, even if they keep it on the down low, the political parties have and use even more sophisticated data today. So, if you like Starbucks, Comedy Central, "60 Minutes," and a nice basketball game, get ready to be bombarded with Hillary Clinton ads in September and October. Meanwhile, fans of the History Channel, NCIS and NASCAR should be seeing some Trump commercials, assuming he airs any. (Z).

..................................

http://www.electoral-vote.com/#item-6