Presidential election, 2016

[pbrower2a]

It may be troublesome, but I may have a fresh cause for a restart.  Monday's debate performance by Hillary Clinton was understated, civil, and topical without going for the kill. Donald Trump's debate performance was simply execrable.

I'm going binary only. If Gary Johnson were to have a chance at a late-season charge, he has yet to show it.  

This is time for a nearly-complete restart. Nearly complete, because old polls for some states may be all that we will ever have. Some states (and the District of Columbia) just don't get polled often. Begin by clearing all results for states except those for which little credible polling exists  and whose electoral character is a lock. If there is any controversy about polling I now show nothing until I see a new poll.

Multitudes who had tuned out Donald Trump for a while have gotten the chance to see him. They had to if they were to see Hillary Clinton in the debate.

States (and DC)  whose prior results look uncontroversial include

AL AK AR CA CT DE DC HI ID IL IN KS KY LA MD MA MT NE (except for the second congressional district) NJ ND NY OK OR RI TN VT WA WV WY

All other states go blank (gray) now.

Even Texas and Utah hold some controversies. Anything close before the debate will not be shown here. Afterward? Of course.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®:





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 182
Donald Trump ®  94

Since the debate (in which Donald Trump performed catastrophically), 195 electoral votes (those in Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Florida) have been accounted for in polls (I saw one for California, and it was a slight gain for Hillary Clinton in a sure-thing state) -- all show their states going to Hillary Clinton, if not above the margin of error in Florida.

Donald Trump has no way of winning the Presidential election barring a huge change in the realities in this Presidential election.


Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®:





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2


Hillary Clinton (D) 289
Donald Trump ®  94