09-29-2016, 04:07 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-29-2016, 04:09 PM by Eric the Green.)
Trump could have a chance if some of the smaller swing states that have trended in his favor, stay that way.
If he wins these Obama swing states:
OH 18
FL 29
NC 15 (Romney in 2012, but trending more Democratic)
CO 9
NV 6
IA 6
And these weak Romney states:
GA 16
AZ 11
MO 10
And these other red states:
SC 9
WV 5
KY 8
TN 11
IN 11
AL 9
MS 6
LA 8
Ark. 6
TX 38
OK 7
KS 6
NE 5
ND & SD 6
MT 3
WY 3
ID 4
AK 3
UT 6
Then he wins 274 electoral votes, without winning any of the Obama industrial midwest states except purple Ohio, where he now has a slim lead.
Right now FL is slightly favoring Hillary, and NC is dead tied. CO is giving mixed signals, while NV and most of all IA are trending Trump. If national polls swing toward Hillary, as they may be starting to do, then these states may also swing to Hillary. There is a lag in state polls.
If he wins these Obama swing states:
OH 18
FL 29
NC 15 (Romney in 2012, but trending more Democratic)
CO 9
NV 6
IA 6
And these weak Romney states:
GA 16
AZ 11
MO 10
And these other red states:
SC 9
WV 5
KY 8
TN 11
IN 11
AL 9
MS 6
LA 8
Ark. 6
TX 38
OK 7
KS 6
NE 5
ND & SD 6
MT 3
WY 3
ID 4
AK 3
UT 6
Then he wins 274 electoral votes, without winning any of the Obama industrial midwest states except purple Ohio, where he now has a slim lead.
Right now FL is slightly favoring Hillary, and NC is dead tied. CO is giving mixed signals, while NV and most of all IA are trending Trump. If national polls swing toward Hillary, as they may be starting to do, then these states may also swing to Hillary. There is a lag in state polls.