Well, I'm back

[Eric the Green]

(01-15-2018, 05:44 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-15-2018, 03:26 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think economics has also been front and center for a long time. The nub of disagreement between the parties is Reaganomics/trickle-down economics, and this is also fused with the social and racial issues, because many white people resent paying taxes to help poor non-white people. The religious right naturally aligns with these white people and their culture fears. The democrats defend the old social programs and sometimes propose new ones (of which health care reform was a big one), while the Republicans defend tax cuts and deregulation. That remains the dispute around which party politics revolves, and has resolved for decades and decades. I certainly think the 2008 election was about the growing recession, and Obama spoke up about trickle-down economics and how it didn't work.

Your version resonates in Deep Blue States, and the opposite view resonates in Crimson Red States.  The end result is stalemate, with one side invalidating the other and then being invalidated in the next term.  It's almost a made-for-TV-movie by now, and not a particularly good one at that.

I'm hoping that Mike is right, and a 2020 swing back to the Dems will have legs.  First, we have to get there.

If that's what Mike says, then it gells with my predictions.

Probably a conservative turn is likely again as the 1T begins. But if this crisis finally establishes some progress again (after almost 40 years of virtually none), then the 1T could be "conservative" more like Ike than Reagan/Bush/Drump and preserve the progress. Perhaps the people, from younger and more diverse generations than ours, even in red states, will have had enough of trickle-down economics and all its associations.

Another astrological-cyclic look at the looming Jupiter-Saturn conjunction of Dec.2020, which times the biggest and most regular shift in the direction of Establishment policy, has convinced me that the party in power (the Republicans) could be overthrown, despite some other favorable indications for it (such as Drump's relatively high horoscope score, and the new moon before election's usual interpretations). The only times in which the party in power survived this conjunction, was when it was dominant for an extended period. It would have been tough to dislodge FDR after the Depression and Democratic Party dominance at that time (1940). Republicans after the civil war were very dominant too (1880, 1900), although elections were often close. The Democratic-Republican Party was the only viable party in 1820. In all other cases, the party in power lost the election that happened around the time of this conjunction; 7 out of 11 times. Since the party in power has not been such during an extended period, it could increase the chance of its ouster in 2020.