Well, I'm back

[David Horn]

(01-25-2018, 08:38 PM)Mikebert Wrote: There is a fundamental asymmetry that exists in this (4T) era. The party in power cannot get full credit for low unemployment because it doesn’t boost wages, nor can they get full credit for the rising stock market because of bubble fears resulting from recent experience in the post-2000 and post-2007 markets. Yet they will get full blame for any bad stuff that happens. Even if the economy stays good, there is plenty of bad stuff that can happen. It is entirely possible for Republicans to lose the House this November despite record-low unemployment and all-time highs in the stock market.

If Republicans are losing even in the face of the most positive fundamentals possible, what happens when Lady Luck turns against them?

I agree that this is an asymmetric era.  Why is arguable, but the results seem plain.  At the same time the GOP is trotting out its standard talking points, it's also wallowing in conspiracy theories -- more every day.  We have unhinged politics and a radically tilted economy coexisting, and that can't be a stable condition under any circumstances. 

I doubt that the economy, or even the stock market, will collapse in the near term, but they may.  That moves us into the territory that Warren Buffet noted: the receding tide will exposed all the naked swimmers.  Let's assume that this long, non-stop run-up released all the gambling spirits. If that happens, the reckoning will be nasty.  With the US less interconnected to the rest of the world, would the US be taking a solo bath, or are we still a big enough elephant that we would take the rest of the world down with us?

FWIW, the Dems should win at least one house of Congress this time.  That suggests stalemate, which the private sector should love.  Even more gambling?