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Well, I'm back
#73
(02-09-2018, 08:08 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(02-09-2018, 05:00 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(02-09-2018, 03:45 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: In the original sense of the thread, I'm back in Plymouth, coming from my sister's place in Weymouth.  I am still recovering, but hopefully capable of living with a sense of autonomy.  Not an entire sense.  I have paid a resident's Massachusetts share and enjoyed being part of a joint economy.

I can see a major values change as Pbower has noted elsewhere.  In terms of not tolerating abusers of women and many other issues we do see a time of many changing values.  Yet, many economic values have not yet convincingly been put on the table.  Climate change and division of wealth have yet to be addressed in a traditional sense.  Trump is not yet a anti hero, a counter example of values on the scale of Buchanan or Hover.

This was not the crisis I would have anticipated, but there is a major collective values change potentially.

The fecal matter must hit the proverbial fan before we recognize how bad things are.

I hardly expect our economic elites to abandon the idea that the rest of Humanity has an obligation to put their gain, indulgence, and power above even the  survival of the children of the rest of Humanity. Such elites historically do not back down until they see themselves in danger or find their world collapsing. Such people expect the people whom they exploit to see those elites as their benefactors. A lapdog like Paul Ryan can make much of a working person getting $60 more a year through a tax cut so that the Koch family can get an astronomical reward for buying our political system.

The fault with Buchanan was not his values; it was that he was not up to a political reality spiraling out of control. Hoover simply bungled an economic meltdown even if he was overall a decent person. Many already believe that Donald Trump is either grossly incompetent or outright evil, if not both. Evil and incompetent  leadership never get good results.

Government by lobbyist is not democracy. That must go.

Buchanan was with the southerners, who wanted to preserve slavery.  Hoover did not see the government as having a role to play in regulating the economy.  I count both as clinging to older sets of values, in not seeing anything wrong in letting dire problems continue to exist, in not perceiving a need for basic transformation.  In that, they were similar to today's abusers of women or climate change deniers.  Some conservatives cling to older privileges.  Some conservatives do not act to solve problems.

And of course, there is the division of wealth and power.  What is theirs they want to keep.  The progressives, too, will have a similar motive.  For some, the moral motives are just a side ploy that attracts people to join their cause. Others truly care.

Along your line of values lock.  Are you familiar with Stephen Skowronek's political time model? He holds that there have been several reconstructive presidents (Washington, Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, FDR, Reagan) who have set a new dominant political ideology. We are currently living under the Reagan dispensation. Until this dispensation passes, obvious policies like a $3 trillion stimulus passed by a 60 seat Democratic majority in 2009 do not get done. Had Democrats done this then Obama would be reconstructive. 

But they didn't so Obama ended up as pre-emptive, Skowronek's name for presidents (e.g. Clinton, Nixon, Eisenhower) from the opposition party to the governing dispensation who try to "preempt" the discourse, redirecting the interpretation of the reigning dispensation in terms more favorable to their party.  Thing Clinton's declaration that "the era of big government is over" with his expansion of CHIP and increase in the Earned Income credit, and think of Eisenhower's decision to not challenge the New Deal, but instead to create a Republican-controlled "military-industrial complex" to offset the Democratic-controlled "social welfare state".

Presidents from the same party as the reconstructive president (e.g. Bush I& II for Reagan, and Truman, Kennedy and Johnson for FDR) are called articulative presidents.  These are the largest category and are not of interest here.

Most interesting are the disjunctive presidents.  These come for the same party as the reconstructive party, at a time when their dispensation in under attack. They have the unhappy job of dealing with the consequences of the failure of their party's ideology to deal with the problems of the time. Examples include JQ Adams, Pierce & Buchanan, Hoover and Carter. Note these guys were president just before or during a social moment.

Right now Trump is third Republican interlude since the Reagan dispensation began.  This makes him like Carter for FDR,  Harding for Lincoln, Buchanan for Jackson, and JQ Adams for Jefferson. Three of these are disjunctive, but Harding is not. The Harding connection is interesting because Trump most closely resembles the current time by other cycle measures I use.

So my prediction, based on historical analogy is 75% probably Trump ends up as disjunctive (and so is not reelected) and 25% probability he ends up as articulative and so wins reelection.
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Messages In This Thread
Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-04-2018, 11:10 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by gabrielle - 01-05-2018, 10:40 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-05-2018, 11:40 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-06-2018, 10:08 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Galen - 01-07-2018, 01:22 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-07-2018, 12:30 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-09-2018, 11:11 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-09-2018, 07:59 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Galen - 01-10-2018, 05:12 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-10-2018, 12:53 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-08-2018, 08:19 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-09-2018, 01:42 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Galen - 01-09-2018, 05:46 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-09-2018, 06:14 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-09-2018, 11:16 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-09-2018, 09:01 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-10-2018, 01:24 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-09-2018, 09:30 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-09-2018, 11:25 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-09-2018, 10:19 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-09-2018, 09:31 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-10-2018, 02:33 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-09-2018, 10:29 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-11-2018, 03:22 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-11-2018, 05:52 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-12-2018, 08:06 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-14-2018, 07:15 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-14-2018, 02:55 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-15-2018, 01:12 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-15-2018, 05:37 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-16-2018, 06:40 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-18-2018, 03:26 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-21-2018, 08:27 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-22-2018, 12:23 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by tg63 - 01-12-2018, 12:36 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-14-2018, 11:34 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-14-2018, 12:44 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-15-2018, 03:26 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-15-2018, 05:44 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-15-2018, 08:10 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-15-2018, 10:16 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-15-2018, 11:14 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-15-2018, 10:47 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Classic-Xer - 01-17-2018, 06:35 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-17-2018, 10:43 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-16-2018, 12:21 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 01-18-2018, 03:32 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-18-2018, 03:38 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-18-2018, 04:02 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-22-2018, 11:05 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-23-2018, 11:51 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-23-2018, 01:12 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 01-23-2018, 05:15 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 01-23-2018, 05:13 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-25-2018, 10:08 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-24-2018, 08:18 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-25-2018, 01:33 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Ragnarök_62 - 01-25-2018, 08:00 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-25-2018, 11:50 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-25-2018, 01:22 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-25-2018, 04:05 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-25-2018, 04:47 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-25-2018, 08:38 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-26-2018, 01:40 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-28-2018, 08:07 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 02-02-2018, 04:30 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 02-02-2018, 05:08 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 02-03-2018, 06:17 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 02-03-2018, 06:25 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 02-09-2018, 03:45 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 02-09-2018, 05:00 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 02-09-2018, 08:08 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 02-11-2018, 05:18 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 02-11-2018, 09:21 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 02-11-2018, 11:49 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 03-13-2018, 06:46 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Tim Randal Walker - 03-15-2018, 06:55 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Tim Randal Walker - 03-15-2018, 07:02 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 03-15-2018, 07:40 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 03-25-2018, 05:57 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 03-28-2018, 12:14 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 02-07-2019, 01:50 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Ragnarök_62 - 02-07-2019, 03:17 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 04-06-2018, 11:06 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Marypoza - 02-07-2019, 02:55 AM

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