Well, I'm back

[Mikebert]

(03-15-2018, 07:02 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The hegemonic cycle is interesting, Mikebert.

The last change in hegemon-the USA replacing Britain-was anomalous in that there was no war between the two powers.  This was investigated in the book Safe Passage by Kori Schake.  (327.114097, as shelved in the public library).   She concluded that the peaceful change was due to unique circumstances.

I am using the Modelski and Thompson Leadership cycle.  The hegemons in this cycle are Portugal, Netherlands, Britain and America. They tend to both be on the winning side of the hegemonic war that separate hegemonic cycles. They is an alternate scheme, sometimes called the Wallerstein scheme, that had the hegemonic powers as Spain, France, Britain, US. In this system the Britain->US transition is anomalous. Schake is probably operating with the Wallerstein scheme.

I will be first to admit that the Wallerstein scheme makes more sense if you just look at the international politics by itself. I chose the leadership cycle because it corresponds to the S&H saeculum and can be considered as a pair of long cycles (I came to the T4T site in 2000 coming from a Kondratieff perspective). It is when you start to consider multiple cycles that the Leadership cycle makes more sense.