11-23-2018, 04:21 AM
My posting on Leip's Atlas of Elections:
Now for the potential dynamics of the electorate (of 2012 for the Presidency, and not also the colors inverted from what is normal in American political journalism, reflecting the norm in that site):
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;7&AZ=0;11;5&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;7&CO=0;9;5&CT=1;7;7&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;5&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;20;7&IN=0;11;5&IA=0;6;5&KS=0;6;7&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;8;7&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;7&MI=0;16;5&MN=0;10;5&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;10;7&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=0;4;5&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;7&NC=0;15;5&ND=2;3;7&OH=0;18;5&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;7&PA=0;20;5&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=2;11;7&TX=0;38;4&UT=0;6;7&VT=1;3;7&VA=0;13;5&WA=1;12;7&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;5&WY=2;3;7&ME=0;2;5&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=2;1;7)
Navy indicates that nothing suggests anything other than a Trump victory in 2020. The state
(1) has not voted for any Democratic nominee for President in the 21st century
(2) voted for Trump by more than 10% in 2016 and with a majority of the total vote, and
(3) did not elect a Democratic Senator in 2018
(4) did not elect a Democratic Governor in 2018.
(5) gave a majority of its House votes to the Republicans in 2018.
Maroon indicates the absence of any signal of a Trump victory in 2020. The state
(1) has not voted for any Republican nominee for President in the 21st century
(2) voted against Trump by 10% or more in 2016
(3) did not elect a Republican Senator in 2018.
(4) gave a majority of its House votes for Democrats in 2018
OK, there are some anomalous results. New Mexico should be considered a firm D state because it elected a Democratic governor, it elected a full House delegation to Congress, and it went for Clinton by just less than 10%. Colorado and Virginia seem to be drifting D very fast. That these states voted for Dubya twice or once may be of little relevance now. Trump has been shown extremely unpopular in these states. Minnesota seemed like the most stalwart of Democratic states, having even voted against Reagan in his 49-state blowout... but it was close in 2016. It did elect two Democratic Senators, one veteran in a landslide and an appointed Senator decisively. Appointed politicians have a poor record of being elected on their own -- but those that do are either very strong or win in states that strongly favor their Party. Nevada ousted a Republican Senator and elected a Democratic Governor, so it goes into the medium-red category.
Maine was close in 2016, but it utterly crushed Republicans in House races after barely going for Clinton. Pennsylvania gave House Democrats an edge of 10% in 2018, so the vote for Trump in 2016 looks like an anomaly in a way that it doesn't look like such an anomaly in Michigan or Wisconsin. New Hampshire barely voted for Clinton in 2016, but the edge that it gave to House Democrats makes it look similarly tough.
On the other side, the dark green in Utah indicates that if the Utah Democratic Party ends up endorsing a third-party nominee for President rather than the Democrat who wins nomination in the national convention, then Trump will be in trouble. Indiana did vote for Obama in 2008, so it is on a very lax level of probation even if it voted by an edge of more than 10% for House Republicans in 2018. Kansas voted in a Democrat as Governor and gave House Republicans a 10% statewide, so it is on a watch list. West Virginia barely elected a Democrat to the Senate, so that is more than can be said of Democratic chances in Missouri.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;7&AZ=4;11;1&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;7&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;7&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=4;29;4&GA=2;16;2&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;20;7&IN=2;11;5&IA=0;6;5&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;8;7&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;7&MI=1;16;2&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;10;7&MT=2;3;2&NV=1;6;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;14;7&NM=1;5;7&NY=1;29;7&NC=0;15;5&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;18;2&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;7&PA=1;20;5&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=2;11;7&TX=2;38;2&UT=3;6;7&VT=1;3;7&VA=1;13;5&WA=1;12;7&WV=2;5;5&WI=1;10;2&WY=2;3;7&&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=2;1;2&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;2&NE3=2;1;7)
Now things get dicier. The only states that I put in pink are two states whose sole indication that they will vote for Trump again (Michigan and Wisconsin) is that they voted for him in 2016, and just barely. They did not vote for the Democrats for the House by overwhelming numbers as was the case in Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania. If they go solid D in my next analysis in this thread, it will be because I have seen a recent credible poll that suggests that Trump will lose severely in 2020 (disapproval of 55% or more or a matchup in which Trump loses to a generic or every specific Democrat by 10% or more). But note well -- the Democrat must basically win every state in any shade of red (including pink) to barely win the Presidency. Both states elected Democrats as Governor and Secretary of State, so President Trump wins them the hard way or does not win them at all.
Iowa gave an edge in the House of nearly 4%, but it re-elected a Republican Governor, so it is in white. I'm putting Florida in a 'caution' category in the event that the President muffs the handling of a hurricane between now and November 2020. This state is really close to 50-50. Montana and Ohio both re-elected Democratic governors even if Republicans won most statewide races, so they are in pale blue. Texas falls into this category because it came close to electing a Democrat for a Senate seat. In all of these states the Republican edge for House seats was less than 5.2% Texas was closest, so that counts about as much as Ohio going twice for Obama. North Carolina had no statewide races, but it elected a Democratic Governor in 2017 (which still counts) and gave a very narrow win for Republicans in the total vote for House seats. North Carolina Republicans tightly gerrymandered the state back in 2011, but that will not have enough of an effect on statewide totals for any Presidential or Senatorial race (and the Senate race in North Carolina may decide which Party has the Senate majority in 2021, but I am going on a tangent here). I could put the Tarheel State into the super-iffy category but have provisionally decided to not do so. Arizona voted for a Democratic Senator (if also a Republican Governor), and gave (except perhaps for Florida) the narrowest edge in total votes in House races.
Finally -- I am giving slight edges to Republicans in Nebraska-02 because the Republican Representative won the district outright with a small majority, and the Republican Party in ME-02, even if the Democrat won. Trump won that district by 10% in 2016 -- and the Republican nominee for the House seat won a plurality in the first round of the election but lost the second round due to ranked-choice voting. Ranked-choice voting does not apply to the Presidential election, as I understand.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;7&AZ=4;11;1&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;7&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;7&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=4;29;4&GA=2;16;2&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;20;7&IN=2;11;5&IA=4;6;1&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;8;7&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;7&MI=1;16;2&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;10;7&MT=2;3;2&NV=1;6;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;14;7&NM=1;5;7&NY=1;29;7&NC=2;15;2&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;18;2&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;7&PA=1;20;5&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=2;11;7&TX=2;38;2&UT=3;6;7&VT=1;3;7&VA=1;13;5&WA=1;12;7&WV=2;5;5&WI=1;10;2&WY=2;3;7&&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=2;1;2&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;2&NE3=2;1;7)
Safe D 188
Likely D 64
Lean D 26
278 in all shades of red, enough for a Democratic win
46 too close to call -- in white or yellow
Lean R 93
Likely R 22
Solid R 95
Utah is safe R (6) without a conservative alternative to Trump -- otherwise a possible win for a Third Party nominee (6)
Trump must win everything in any shade of blue, green, or yellow -- and white while picking off something in a red shade to win.
Now for the potential dynamics of the electorate (of 2012 for the Presidency, and not also the colors inverted from what is normal in American political journalism, reflecting the norm in that site):
Navy indicates that nothing suggests anything other than a Trump victory in 2020. The state
(1) has not voted for any Democratic nominee for President in the 21st century
(2) voted for Trump by more than 10% in 2016 and with a majority of the total vote, and
(3) did not elect a Democratic Senator in 2018
(4) did not elect a Democratic Governor in 2018.
(5) gave a majority of its House votes to the Republicans in 2018.
Maroon indicates the absence of any signal of a Trump victory in 2020. The state
(1) has not voted for any Republican nominee for President in the 21st century
(2) voted against Trump by 10% or more in 2016
(3) did not elect a Republican Senator in 2018.
(4) gave a majority of its House votes for Democrats in 2018
OK, there are some anomalous results. New Mexico should be considered a firm D state because it elected a Democratic governor, it elected a full House delegation to Congress, and it went for Clinton by just less than 10%. Colorado and Virginia seem to be drifting D very fast. That these states voted for Dubya twice or once may be of little relevance now. Trump has been shown extremely unpopular in these states. Minnesota seemed like the most stalwart of Democratic states, having even voted against Reagan in his 49-state blowout... but it was close in 2016. It did elect two Democratic Senators, one veteran in a landslide and an appointed Senator decisively. Appointed politicians have a poor record of being elected on their own -- but those that do are either very strong or win in states that strongly favor their Party. Nevada ousted a Republican Senator and elected a Democratic Governor, so it goes into the medium-red category.
Maine was close in 2016, but it utterly crushed Republicans in House races after barely going for Clinton. Pennsylvania gave House Democrats an edge of 10% in 2018, so the vote for Trump in 2016 looks like an anomaly in a way that it doesn't look like such an anomaly in Michigan or Wisconsin. New Hampshire barely voted for Clinton in 2016, but the edge that it gave to House Democrats makes it look similarly tough.
On the other side, the dark green in Utah indicates that if the Utah Democratic Party ends up endorsing a third-party nominee for President rather than the Democrat who wins nomination in the national convention, then Trump will be in trouble. Indiana did vote for Obama in 2008, so it is on a very lax level of probation even if it voted by an edge of more than 10% for House Republicans in 2018. Kansas voted in a Democrat as Governor and gave House Republicans a 10% statewide, so it is on a watch list. West Virginia barely elected a Democrat to the Senate, so that is more than can be said of Democratic chances in Missouri.
Now things get dicier. The only states that I put in pink are two states whose sole indication that they will vote for Trump again (Michigan and Wisconsin) is that they voted for him in 2016, and just barely. They did not vote for the Democrats for the House by overwhelming numbers as was the case in Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania. If they go solid D in my next analysis in this thread, it will be because I have seen a recent credible poll that suggests that Trump will lose severely in 2020 (disapproval of 55% or more or a matchup in which Trump loses to a generic or every specific Democrat by 10% or more). But note well -- the Democrat must basically win every state in any shade of red (including pink) to barely win the Presidency. Both states elected Democrats as Governor and Secretary of State, so President Trump wins them the hard way or does not win them at all.
Iowa gave an edge in the House of nearly 4%, but it re-elected a Republican Governor, so it is in white. I'm putting Florida in a 'caution' category in the event that the President muffs the handling of a hurricane between now and November 2020. This state is really close to 50-50. Montana and Ohio both re-elected Democratic governors even if Republicans won most statewide races, so they are in pale blue. Texas falls into this category because it came close to electing a Democrat for a Senate seat. In all of these states the Republican edge for House seats was less than 5.2% Texas was closest, so that counts about as much as Ohio going twice for Obama. North Carolina had no statewide races, but it elected a Democratic Governor in 2017 (which still counts) and gave a very narrow win for Republicans in the total vote for House seats. North Carolina Republicans tightly gerrymandered the state back in 2011, but that will not have enough of an effect on statewide totals for any Presidential or Senatorial race (and the Senate race in North Carolina may decide which Party has the Senate majority in 2021, but I am going on a tangent here). I could put the Tarheel State into the super-iffy category but have provisionally decided to not do so. Arizona voted for a Democratic Senator (if also a Republican Governor), and gave (except perhaps for Florida) the narrowest edge in total votes in House races.
Finally -- I am giving slight edges to Republicans in Nebraska-02 because the Republican Representative won the district outright with a small majority, and the Republican Party in ME-02, even if the Democrat won. Trump won that district by 10% in 2016 -- and the Republican nominee for the House seat won a plurality in the first round of the election but lost the second round due to ranked-choice voting. Ranked-choice voting does not apply to the Presidential election, as I understand.
Safe D 188
Likely D 64
Lean D 26
278 in all shades of red, enough for a Democratic win
46 too close to call -- in white or yellow
Lean R 93
Likely R 22
Solid R 95
Utah is safe R (6) without a conservative alternative to Trump -- otherwise a possible win for a Third Party nominee (6)
Trump must win everything in any shade of blue, green, or yellow -- and white while picking off something in a red shade to win.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.