Thoughts On Where We Are, and Where We're Going

[Bob Butler 54]

(09-05-2018, 09:48 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Trump seems to be bogging down in partisan politics, his actions so far have energized hardcore supporters (and opponents) but not much else, the improving economy might be in his favor. As for the progressive side, at best they could get temporary gains in the house and senate that would probably be reversed in the next election or two; The progressives would be incapable of acquiring any gains that are bigger than that even in the best case scenario for them unless they abandon SJWism. Neither the Liberals or the Conservatives are trusted by the citizenry at the moment. At this point the only pillar of governance and the only political force in the Country that has not been discredited by the last 20 years of US politics, the only remaining fully credible force in America is the Military.

Trump is embracing the swamp and using the Tea Party.  Of course he is bogging down in partisan politics.  He will be the incumbent as well as a probably healthy economy on his side, but he won a minority victory and proceeded to make a bunch of people on the fence mad at him.  I suspect the see saw is tipped.

But he might not last four years the way he is going.  But if he last just a little over two years, Pence could be the incumbent in 2020 and again in 2024.  

Or maybe not.  The Republicans are rejecting their Establishment.  They could well nominate someone in the Palin / Trump scheme, but more sane and competent, rejecting their incumbent.

As a progressive, I am apt to see the SJW opponents as the racists and sexists, as the leftovers of Nixon's Southern Strategy.  There were large steps forward on social issues during the Obama years, encouraging the racists and sexists to step out in the open again.  The SJWs are generally fighting for equality, one of the classic Enlightenment and American values in the past.  The Democrats have taken up the banner, are unlikely to let it down.  Me, I have my arrow of progress, and suspect strongly that the equality side will come out eventually on top.  This does not mean that the next few years will be quiet ones.  The bad guys will have their innings.

This is one place where the red complaint that the blue never listen can be reversed.  Many blue sincerely and with emphasis believe in equality.  They have seen a history of equality overcoming past prejudice.  I do not see the blues backing down to the racists and sexists, though they might not see it as the dominant issue in the upcoming elections.

But ignoring racism and sexism will not be easy.  I believe that in part racism and sexism are behind much of the red economic approach.  Independence over a strong community?  A small government with low taxes?  Favoring a strong division of wealth over attempts to spread money more evenly?  All can make a wonderful surface sense and attract legitimate voters.  They also get in the way of taking away red money and spending it on disadvantaged people with skin pigmentation.  LBJ redistributed wealth too much in his Great Society.  Conservatives killed American greatness, the notion that America could do anything it put is mind to, created the National Malaise, in part to fight that trend, a trend based in part on racist and sexist motivation.

I would like to see a non establishment candidate, or more than one, take over one or both parties.  That trend is real.  One element of the upcoming conflict is the division of wealth, and both rural and urban populations could benefit by non traditional anti establishment candidates.  This wave is growing, but so far the establishment is hanging on to power.

But the wave against the establishment is growing.  I am not seeing it breaking yet.  I am not seeing new values triumphing soon.  I could be wrong.