10-17-2016, 09:16 PM
*** 18-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation
****
![[Image: g161017b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161017b.jpg)
Kurdish Peshmerga forces in operation to liberate Mosul on Monday (Anadolu)
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan insisted on Monday that Turkey
will take part in the operation to recapture Mosul from the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh):
> [indent]<QUOTE>"They say Turkey should not take part in the
> operation. How can Turkey not take part in the operation when it
> shares a 350-kilometer border with Iraq and receives all the
> terror threats from there? We have brothers in Mosul, Arabs,
> Turkmens and Kurds. If you go further north, we have
> relatives."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Turkish troops have been operating since 2014 in the Bashiqa military
base in northern Iraq near Mosul, along the border with Turkey.
Turkey has an estimated 2,000 troops in Iraq, around 500 of them in
Bashiqa training about 1,000-2,000 Sunni Iraqi militia fighters in
preparation for the Mosul operation.
On Thursday of last week, Iraq's foreign ministry in Baghdad summoned
the Turkish ambassador. Iraq said that the Turkish forces in Bashiqa
were "occupying forces" and "should be immediately withdrawn." Turkey
refused to withdraw, and was able to produce a video of a December
2014 video in which Iraq's prime minister Haider al-Abadi asked for
"military, intelligence, arms and training support" from Turkey.
Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Anadolu (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
****
**** Turkey views the Mosul operation as a security threat to Turkey
****
In Thursday's statement, Erdogan reaffirmed that Turkey will do what
is necessary in Mosul, and will not take directions from Iraq's prime
minister.
Turkish officials are saying that the Mosul operation is a threat
to the security of Turkey for several reasons:
The concerns are real. The Mosul operation will be led by Iraq's army
(the one that dropped their guns and fled for their lives as ISIS
fighters approached Mosul in 2014). The Iraqi force of 30,000
soldiers will have other participants besides the Iraqi army -- the
US-led coalition, Turkey, Sunni tribes, Kurds, Iran, and Shia
militias. These participants have a common objective -- to recapture
Mosul from ISIS. However, once the recapture is complete, these
participants will all have different objectives. In particular, just
as Turkey wants to retain its influence in Mosul, the other
participants will also want to maximize their own influence.
So far, none of these conflicting objectives has influenced the first
day of the military operation. But it's still possible that this
situation will cause major problems down the road. CNN and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and BBC
Related Articles
****
**** ISIS may be given a chance to escape to Syria
****
Among all the analyst opinions, there seems to be little doubt that
the recapture of Mosul will succeed. There are a wide variety of
opinions on how long it will take, how many civilians will be killed,
how much of the city will be destroyed, how big the humanitarian
disaster will be, and whether new terror groups will fill the vacuum
when ISIS is gone. But analysts seem unanimous in believing that the
Iraqi force of 30,000, backed by US-coalition airstrikes, will succeed
in defeating the 3,000 to 4,500 ISIS militants in Mosul.
The loss of Mosul will be a huge symbolic loss for ISIS. It's the
largest city that ISIS has captured -- even larger than Raqqa in
Syria. Even more important, it's the city where ISIS leader Abu Omar
al-Baghdadi declared his "caliphate."
However, some analysts say that Iraq is hoping that ISIS will flee
without fighting. Iraqi forces have been surrounding Mosul and
blocking exits from the north, east and south, but they're leaving a
corridor open to the west, hoping that ISIS fighters will take
advantage of it and flee to ISIS headquarters in Raqqa in Syria.
According to one analyst, ISIS commanders are aware that they're going
to lose the battle, and that many of their forces will be killed, so
they may decide to withdraw their best fighters, and leave the
newbies behind to fight and be killed.
Other analysts aren't so sure. One of them points out that ISIS
fighters fleeing to the west will be easy targets for US airstrikes,
and so ISIS commanders may feel they have no choice but to stand and
fight. Washington Post and Business Insider (Australia) and Economist
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashiqa military base, Haider al-Abadi, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
Hashid Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF,
Peshmerga, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Operation Euphrates Shield
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation
- Turkey views the Mosul operation as a security threat to Turkey
- ISIS may be given a chance to escape to Syria
****
**** Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation
****
Kurdish Peshmerga forces in operation to liberate Mosul on Monday (Anadolu)
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan insisted on Monday that Turkey
will take part in the operation to recapture Mosul from the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh):
> [indent]<QUOTE>"They say Turkey should not take part in the
> operation. How can Turkey not take part in the operation when it
> shares a 350-kilometer border with Iraq and receives all the
> terror threats from there? We have brothers in Mosul, Arabs,
> Turkmens and Kurds. If you go further north, we have
> relatives."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Turkish troops have been operating since 2014 in the Bashiqa military
base in northern Iraq near Mosul, along the border with Turkey.
Turkey has an estimated 2,000 troops in Iraq, around 500 of them in
Bashiqa training about 1,000-2,000 Sunni Iraqi militia fighters in
preparation for the Mosul operation.
On Thursday of last week, Iraq's foreign ministry in Baghdad summoned
the Turkish ambassador. Iraq said that the Turkish forces in Bashiqa
were "occupying forces" and "should be immediately withdrawn." Turkey
refused to withdraw, and was able to produce a video of a December
2014 video in which Iraq's prime minister Haider al-Abadi asked for
"military, intelligence, arms and training support" from Turkey.
Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Anadolu (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
****
**** Turkey views the Mosul operation as a security threat to Turkey
****
In Thursday's statement, Erdogan reaffirmed that Turkey will do what
is necessary in Mosul, and will not take directions from Iraq's prime
minister.
Turkish officials are saying that the Mosul operation is a threat
to the security of Turkey for several reasons:
- There are 1.2 million civilians in Mosul, and if there's
a humanitarian disaster and they start fleeing, many of them
will flee to Turkey.
- Some of the forces fighting in the Mosul operation are Iran-backed
Shia militias known as Hashid Shaabi or Popular Mobilization Forces
(PMF). The PMF participated in the recapture of Ramadi and Tikrit
from ISIS, and in each case conducted bloody atrocities among the
Sunni Muslim civilians in those towns. Turkey's officials state that
they're not going to permit the PMF to do the same thing in Mosul, and
risk a wider Sunni-Shia sectarian war. Iraq has responded by
promising that the PMF forces will take part in the operation, but
will not be permitted to enter Mosul itself.
- Some of the forces fighting in the Mosul operation are Kurdish
Peshmerga militia forces. These are the so-called moderate Kurdish
forces, as opposed to the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
which is internationally recognized as a terrorist group, and has
conducted numerous terrorist attacks within Turkey. Turkey demands
that Kurdish forces not be permitted to participate in the Mosul
operation, just as Turkey's Operation Euphrates Shield prevented
Kurdish forces from expanding their territory in Syria. Iraq has
responded by promising that the Kurdish Peshmerga forces will take
part in the operation, but will not be permitted to enter Mosul
itself.
- As suggested by Erdogan's statement quoted above, Turkey had a
very close and influential relationship with Mosul prior to the ISIS
takeover. Erdogan wants to make sure that Turkey regains that
influence after Mosul is recaptured.
The concerns are real. The Mosul operation will be led by Iraq's army
(the one that dropped their guns and fled for their lives as ISIS
fighters approached Mosul in 2014). The Iraqi force of 30,000
soldiers will have other participants besides the Iraqi army -- the
US-led coalition, Turkey, Sunni tribes, Kurds, Iran, and Shia
militias. These participants have a common objective -- to recapture
Mosul from ISIS. However, once the recapture is complete, these
participants will all have different objectives. In particular, just
as Turkey wants to retain its influence in Mosul, the other
participants will also want to maximize their own influence.
So far, none of these conflicting objectives has influenced the first
day of the military operation. But it's still possible that this
situation will cause major problems down the road. CNN and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and BBC
Related Articles
- Iraq begins battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS (17-Oct-2016)
- Iraq, ISIS and the West prepare for the Great Battle for Mosul to begin soon (01-Oct-2016)
- Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
****
**** ISIS may be given a chance to escape to Syria
****
Among all the analyst opinions, there seems to be little doubt that
the recapture of Mosul will succeed. There are a wide variety of
opinions on how long it will take, how many civilians will be killed,
how much of the city will be destroyed, how big the humanitarian
disaster will be, and whether new terror groups will fill the vacuum
when ISIS is gone. But analysts seem unanimous in believing that the
Iraqi force of 30,000, backed by US-coalition airstrikes, will succeed
in defeating the 3,000 to 4,500 ISIS militants in Mosul.
The loss of Mosul will be a huge symbolic loss for ISIS. It's the
largest city that ISIS has captured -- even larger than Raqqa in
Syria. Even more important, it's the city where ISIS leader Abu Omar
al-Baghdadi declared his "caliphate."
However, some analysts say that Iraq is hoping that ISIS will flee
without fighting. Iraqi forces have been surrounding Mosul and
blocking exits from the north, east and south, but they're leaving a
corridor open to the west, hoping that ISIS fighters will take
advantage of it and flee to ISIS headquarters in Raqqa in Syria.
According to one analyst, ISIS commanders are aware that they're going
to lose the battle, and that many of their forces will be killed, so
they may decide to withdraw their best fighters, and leave the
newbies behind to fight and be killed.
Other analysts aren't so sure. One of them points out that ISIS
fighters fleeing to the west will be easy targets for US airstrikes,
and so ISIS commanders may feel they have no choice but to stand and
fight. Washington Post and Business Insider (Australia) and Economist
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashiqa military base, Haider al-Abadi, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
Hashid Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF,
Peshmerga, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Operation Euphrates Shield
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
