10-19-2016, 10:37 PM
*** 20-Oct-16 World View -- Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS
****
![[Image: g161019b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161019b.jpg)
Homes destroyed by ISIS east of Mosul (Reuters)
With the Iraq army's great battle to recapture Mosul from the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) under way since
Monday, politicians and military leaders are issuing the confident
statements that things are going well. The press has been reporting
that the military operation is already "ahead of schedule," which
presumably means that the schedule for the first day or two was
specifically designed so that the army couldn't fail.
The Iraqi politicians and military leaders are claiming not only to be
ahead of schedule, but also to have everyone's agreement on how the
battle will go. Specifically, Turkey's troops will not take part at
all, and when the final battles are being fought, then the Kurdish
militias and the Iran-backed Shia militias will wait outside Mosul,
and only the Iraqi army will enter Mosul. It sounds an awful lot like
a fairy tale.
The Iraqi force of 30,000 soldiers will consist of many groups of
participants -- the US-led coalition, Turkey, Sunni tribes, Kurds,
Iran, and Shia militias. These participants all save defeating ISIS
as an objective, but when the battle is over, they all want to have as
much influence in Mosul and control over events as possible. To
imagine that all these other participants will simply cede control to
the Iraq army seems like a fantasy.
We've already had the following:
Maybe all will go as Iraqi leaders have planned -- the participants
will do as they're told, the battle will be quick, and only the Iraqi
army will enter Mosul. But there are powerful forces at play, and
powerful constituents, and they won't be stopped by a simple
agreement, especially when something goes wrong. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters and Dow Jones
Related Articles
****
**** Turkey views Iraq and Syria through the lens of World War I and the Ottoman Empire
****
When the Ottoman Empire was defeated in World War I, troops from
Greece, Armenia, France and Italy occupied Istanbul and partitioned
much of the land previously controlled by the Ottomans. Turkey's War
of Independence began in 1919, and continued until 1923, with Turkey's
forces led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the revered founder of modern
Turkey.
In 1920, the Ottoman Parliament approved a document known as Misak-i
Milli, or the Turkish National Oath, which laid out Turkey's
conditions for achieving peace, including a demand that "The future of
the territories inhabited by an Arab majority at the time of the
signing of the Armistice of Mudros will be determined by a
referendum." However, when peace was finally achieved by the Lausanne
Peace Treaty in 1923, many of the demands of the Turkish National Oath
were not met.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has referred to the Turkish
National Oath in his speeches. According to Turkish media, he sees
the treaties that ended World War I as defining new national
boundaries for the entire Mideast, and he sees the current wars in
Syria and Iraq as a process of redrawing those boundaries for the
first time in almost a century -- or as a plot by the West, the Kurds,
Iran and other foreigners to divide up the Syria and Iraq among
themselves.
Among the regions that Turkey was forced to give up in 1923 were parts
of northern Syria and Iraq, including Mosul in Iraq and Manbij in
Syria. Erdogan believes that if the Mideast boundaries are going to
be redrawn, then Turkey must take part aggressively, or else be
humiliated again as happened with the Lausanne Peace Treaty almost a
century ago. Thus, in Erdogan's view, Turkey must take part in the
Mosul operation, and Erdogan must eject Kurdish militias from northern
Syria, where Turkey has been fighting Operation Euphrates Shield.
The Kurds are aware of this, of course, as they're trying to create
their own state of Rojava in a region stretching from the
Mediterranean to Iran in northern Syria and Iraq, along the border
with Turkey. Erdogan has repeatedly said that anything like that
would be intolerable.
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is now governing only a small
fraction of the original Syria, mockingly called "Alawite-istan," in
the west. Al-Assad is planning destroy the city of Aleppo, killing as
many of the 250,000 Sunni civilians living there are he can, using
barrel bombs, cluster bombs, chlorine, phosphorous bombs and bunker
bombs, as well as Russia's warplanes. Aleppo is currently under
siege, with no food or supplies able to enter the city.
Turkey has vowed to attack the city of Manbij in northern Syria, to
eject the Kurds and the last of the ISIS fighters.
As it turns out, Manbij is not far from Aleppo. Some analysts are
suggesting that Turkey might try to break the siege on Aleppo.
Regular readers know that Generational Dynamics has been predicting a
major Mideast war. We've mentioned several possible scenarios how
such a war might begin. Possibilities include a war between Israelis
and Arabs, a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or a war between India
and Pakistan spreading to the Mideast. Each of these wars would
create a scenario that leads to a full-scale Mideast war.
Now we must add another possible scenario. Turkey has become
increasingly nationalist, especially since the July 15 attempted coup,
and Turkey may end up fighting Iran, Iraq, the Kurds and al-Assad,
attempting to recover the territory lost by the peace treaties that
followed World War I. As in the other cases, this would create a
scenario that leads to a full-scale Mideast war. Rudaw (Iraq-Kurds)
and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Kurdistan 24 and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashiqa military base, Peshmerga, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Operation Euphrates Shield, Hashid Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF,
Masoud Barzani, Mustafa Kemal Atatürkm Misak-i Milli, Turkish National Oath,
World War I, Lausanne Peace Treaty, Manbij, Aleppo, Rojava
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS
- Turkey views Iraq and Syria through the lens of World War I and the Ottoman Empire
****
**** Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS
****
Homes destroyed by ISIS east of Mosul (Reuters)
With the Iraq army's great battle to recapture Mosul from the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) under way since
Monday, politicians and military leaders are issuing the confident
statements that things are going well. The press has been reporting
that the military operation is already "ahead of schedule," which
presumably means that the schedule for the first day or two was
specifically designed so that the army couldn't fail.
The Iraqi politicians and military leaders are claiming not only to be
ahead of schedule, but also to have everyone's agreement on how the
battle will go. Specifically, Turkey's troops will not take part at
all, and when the final battles are being fought, then the Kurdish
militias and the Iran-backed Shia militias will wait outside Mosul,
and only the Iraqi army will enter Mosul. It sounds an awful lot like
a fairy tale.
The Iraqi force of 30,000 soldiers will consist of many groups of
participants -- the US-led coalition, Turkey, Sunni tribes, Kurds,
Iran, and Shia militias. These participants all save defeating ISIS
as an objective, but when the battle is over, they all want to have as
much influence in Mosul and control over events as possible. To
imagine that all these other participants will simply cede control to
the Iraq army seems like a fantasy.
We've already had the following:
- Turkish troops are already in training roles in Bashiqa
military camp in northern Iraq, and Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan has already said, "How can Turkey not take part in the
operation?"
- Leaders of the Iran-backed Shia militias known as the Popular
Mobilization Force (PMF) are saying that they will take the city of
Tal Afar, about 34 miles west of Mosul, but didn't say they would stop
there. According to one unnamed senior Iraqi official, The Iranians
and the PMF plan to take Tal Afar because of the Shia significance and
use that as a way to angle in to Mosul."
- The Kurdish Peshmerga forces have taken the lead in a number of
the battles against ISIS in the past, and are now complaining that the
Iraqi army aren't moving quickly enough. Kurdish General Masoud
Barzani said, "Is it the Iraqi army or is it the Iranian army? There
are a lot of cars with their slogans and flags."
Maybe all will go as Iraqi leaders have planned -- the participants
will do as they're told, the battle will be quick, and only the Iraqi
army will enter Mosul. But there are powerful forces at play, and
powerful constituents, and they won't be stopped by a simple
agreement, especially when something goes wrong. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters and Dow Jones
Related Articles
- Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation (18-Oct-2016)
- Iraq begins battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS (17-Oct-2016)
- Iraq, ISIS and the West prepare for the Great Battle for Mosul to begin soon (01-Oct-2016)
****
**** Turkey views Iraq and Syria through the lens of World War I and the Ottoman Empire
****
When the Ottoman Empire was defeated in World War I, troops from
Greece, Armenia, France and Italy occupied Istanbul and partitioned
much of the land previously controlled by the Ottomans. Turkey's War
of Independence began in 1919, and continued until 1923, with Turkey's
forces led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the revered founder of modern
Turkey.
In 1920, the Ottoman Parliament approved a document known as Misak-i
Milli, or the Turkish National Oath, which laid out Turkey's
conditions for achieving peace, including a demand that "The future of
the territories inhabited by an Arab majority at the time of the
signing of the Armistice of Mudros will be determined by a
referendum." However, when peace was finally achieved by the Lausanne
Peace Treaty in 1923, many of the demands of the Turkish National Oath
were not met.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has referred to the Turkish
National Oath in his speeches. According to Turkish media, he sees
the treaties that ended World War I as defining new national
boundaries for the entire Mideast, and he sees the current wars in
Syria and Iraq as a process of redrawing those boundaries for the
first time in almost a century -- or as a plot by the West, the Kurds,
Iran and other foreigners to divide up the Syria and Iraq among
themselves.
Among the regions that Turkey was forced to give up in 1923 were parts
of northern Syria and Iraq, including Mosul in Iraq and Manbij in
Syria. Erdogan believes that if the Mideast boundaries are going to
be redrawn, then Turkey must take part aggressively, or else be
humiliated again as happened with the Lausanne Peace Treaty almost a
century ago. Thus, in Erdogan's view, Turkey must take part in the
Mosul operation, and Erdogan must eject Kurdish militias from northern
Syria, where Turkey has been fighting Operation Euphrates Shield.
The Kurds are aware of this, of course, as they're trying to create
their own state of Rojava in a region stretching from the
Mediterranean to Iran in northern Syria and Iraq, along the border
with Turkey. Erdogan has repeatedly said that anything like that
would be intolerable.
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is now governing only a small
fraction of the original Syria, mockingly called "Alawite-istan," in
the west. Al-Assad is planning destroy the city of Aleppo, killing as
many of the 250,000 Sunni civilians living there are he can, using
barrel bombs, cluster bombs, chlorine, phosphorous bombs and bunker
bombs, as well as Russia's warplanes. Aleppo is currently under
siege, with no food or supplies able to enter the city.
Turkey has vowed to attack the city of Manbij in northern Syria, to
eject the Kurds and the last of the ISIS fighters.
As it turns out, Manbij is not far from Aleppo. Some analysts are
suggesting that Turkey might try to break the siege on Aleppo.
Regular readers know that Generational Dynamics has been predicting a
major Mideast war. We've mentioned several possible scenarios how
such a war might begin. Possibilities include a war between Israelis
and Arabs, a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or a war between India
and Pakistan spreading to the Mideast. Each of these wars would
create a scenario that leads to a full-scale Mideast war.
Now we must add another possible scenario. Turkey has become
increasingly nationalist, especially since the July 15 attempted coup,
and Turkey may end up fighting Iran, Iraq, the Kurds and al-Assad,
attempting to recover the territory lost by the peace treaties that
followed World War I. As in the other cases, this would create a
scenario that leads to a full-scale Mideast war. Rudaw (Iraq-Kurds)
and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Kurdistan 24 and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Related Articles
- Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
- Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse (04-Sep-2016)
- Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West (22-Jul-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashiqa military base, Peshmerga, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Operation Euphrates Shield, Hashid Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF,
Masoud Barzani, Mustafa Kemal Atatürkm Misak-i Milli, Turkish National Oath,
World War I, Lausanne Peace Treaty, Manbij, Aleppo, Rojava
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
