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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 30-Oct-16 World View -- Confusion and chaos in Iraq mark the operation to free Mosul from ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Shia militias in Iraq may or may not be attacking Tal Afar near Mosul
  • ISIS using tens of thousands of men, women and children as human shields in Mosul
  • Conflicts among ethnic groups lead to chaos in Mosul operation

****
**** Shia militias in Iraq may or may not be attacking Tal Afar near Mosul
****


[Image: g161029b.jpg]
Kurdish Peshmerga forces fire a mortar towards ISIS positions near Mosul last week (Reuters)

The Iran-backed Shia militias fighting in support of Iraq's army to
liberate Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh), claim that they're on a mission by themselves to recapture the
nearby town of Tal Afar.

Ahmad al-Asadi, the spokesman for the Hashd al-Shaabi militia, or
Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>The front that has been tasked to the Hashd al-Shaabi
> is one of the most significant and most dangerous fronts in this
> operation.
>
> [The PMF] are tasked with one of the widest areas, ranging from
> Qayyara in the west, Tal Afar in the north to the Mosul outskirts
> in the east and some areas on the Syrian-Iraqi border to the
> west."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

Tal Afar is about 55 km (35 miles) northwest of Mosul, and al-Shaabi
indicated that the goals was to cut off any option of retreat by ISIS
into Syria, or to prevent any reinforcements from arriving from Syria.

As we've discussed previously,

there has been a debate over whether to leave open the roads west of
Mosul, so that ISIS fighters will take advantage of it and flee
without a fight to ISIS headquarters in Raqqa in Syria.

The claims by Shia militia (PMF) spokesman Ahmad al-Asadi seems to
support closing the corridor to the West.

On the other hand, the active involvement of Iran-backed Shia
militias would seem to violate Iraqi government promises to Turkey
that Shia forces would be limited in their activities, to prevent
sectarian clashes.

But all of al-Asadi's claims are being disputed by Turkey's military,
according to a report in Daily Sabah:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"As reports from various sources indicate that Shiite
> militia groups have launched an operation Saturday to capture
> predominantly Turkmen town of Tal Afar in northern Iraq from
> Daesh, Turkish military sources said that these groups are not
> near the town and reports are part of a psychological warfare
> attempt."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

The report suggests that the operation to recapture Mosul is not going
as well as planned, and the claims that the PMF are about to capture
Tal Afar are an attempt to fool both the international commit and
ISIS.

This report is consistent with suggestions in other reports that the
Iraqi army's advance on Mosul is stalled, and that the Mosul offensive
has virtually ground to a halt. AFP and Reuters and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Debka

Related Articles

****
**** ISIS using tens of thousands of men, women and children as human shields in Mosul
****


According to the United Nations Human Rights office, ISIS has abducted
tens of thousands of men, women and children from areas around Mosul
and are using them as "human shields." Describing it as "ISIS's
depraved, cowardly strategy," they are being kept near military
installations, to prevent the Iraqi army from advancing.

The UN says that the ISIS stronghold of Hamam al-Alil used to have a
population of 23,000, but now has a population of 60,000, in order to
slow an Iraqi army attack.

In addition, the UN is expressing "deep concern" at reports that some
individuals in the areas south of Mosul have embarked on revenge
killings and had vowed on television that there will be “eye for eye
revenge” against those who sided with ISIS. United Nations and Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** Conflicts among ethnic groups lead to chaos in Mosul operation
****


Retired Army Gen. David H. Petraeus was once commander of the U.S.-led
forces in Iraq, and he led the troop surge in 2007 that expelled
Al-Qaeda in Iraq. So he completely understands the issues that the
Iraqi army coalition is facing in its attempts to expel ISIS from
Mosul.

According to Petraeus, the Mosul campaign is unfolding "in quite a
methodical way," and is a "textbook example" of such an operation.
But he points out that the chaotic nature of the operation is caused
by ethnic differences in both the Iraqi security forces and the
millions of civilians being liberated:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Iraqi security forces [are] this mix of Iraqi
> army, Iraqi police, Kurdish peshmerga, the Iraqi counter-terrorism
> service, the Iraqi air force, popular mobilization units — some
> Shia Arab from the south, some Sunni Arab from the tribes of
> Nineveh province. And the challenge is going to be, first of all,
> to keep all of them pulling in the same direction. ...
>
> As we used to say when I was privileged to be the commander there,
> Nineveh province has the most diverse human terrain in all of Iraq
> – Sunni Arab majority to be sure, but also Shia Arabs, numerous
> Kurdish communities, and they are broken out into several
> different political parties.
>
> There are Yazidis. There are Shabak. There are Christians. And
> there are Turkmen Shias, as well as Turkmen Sunnis, and this
> explains why President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan of Turkey has been
> so vocal about the fact that the Turkish forces needed to be on
> the outskirts of Mosul should take some part in this
> effort."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

The situation in the Mosul operation is even worse, according to
Israeli analyst Anshel Pfeffer:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"On the ground, however, totally separate battles are
> being fought out. The Iraqi Army, the Peshmerga, Shi’ite-Iraqi
> militias and United States Special Forces teams are all rival
> forces, albeit with a common enemy, for now. They are all fighting
> ISIS while pursuing very different agenda.
>
> The Iraqi Army are not even allowed into the territory of the
> Kurdish Regional Government without special authorization, and the
> Peshmerga constantly complain of how almost all the new weapons
> supplied by the Americans have gone to Baghdad’s forces, with the
> Kurdish fighters receiving only scraps. ...
>
> “The Americans don’t learn,” says one Peshmerga officer. “The
> Iraqi army will just run away, leaving their new American weapons
> to ISIS. Just as they did two years ago.”"<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

Petraeus and Pfeffer agree that all the different armies and militias
have a common objective to eject ISIS, and they'll succeed. But with
growing Kurdish nationalism and growing Turkish nationalism, it won't
be long before the different armies are fighting each other. LA Times and Haaretz

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Tal Afar, Kurds, Pershmerga,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ahmad al-Asadi, Hashd al-Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF,
Turkey, David H. Petraeus, Anshel Pfeffer

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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
30-Oct-16 World View -- Confusion and chaos in Iraq mark the operation to free Mosul - by John J. Xenakis - 10-29-2016, 07:57 PM
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