11-03-2016, 09:21 PM
*** 4-Nov-16 World View -- Britain's Brexit plans in disarray after court requires parliamentary approval
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Britain's Brexit plans in disarray after court requires parliamentary approval
****
![[Image: g161103b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161103b.jpg)
Anti-Brexit protestors on June 25 in London (Getty)
A shock court decision on Thursday threatens to significantly delay
implementation of Brexit, the referendum mandate that Britain leave
the European Union. Negotiations between the UK and the EU are
scheduled to take two years, but that two-year period will not begin
until Britain's prime minister Theresa May invokes "Article 50," which
triggers the beginning of negotiations. May had previously announced
that she planned to invoke Article 50 in March of next year.
However, Britain's High Court on Thursday ruled that Theresa May
cannot invoke Article 50 on her own, without a vote in Britain's House
of Commons and House of Lords.
The court ruling immediately raised hopes in some quarters that Brexit
may therefore not take place at all, though analysts I heard seemed to
doubt that the parliament would be willing to reverse a decision
supported by popular vote in a referendum.
Nonetheless, the path to Brexit implementation is now in disarray
because Parliament will be debating the terms of the Brexit plan.
There are many major issues to be resolved in the negotiations with
the EU -- whether Britain will be part of the European Common Market,
whether Britain will have to continue accepting migrants, whether
Brits will need visas to visit EU countries, and vice versa, how the
land border between Northern Ireland (which is part of Britain) and
the Republic of Ireland (which is an independent nation in the EU)
will be managed, and so forth.
All of these issues require some sort of plan in advance of triggering
Article 50, and May had hoped to keep that plan a secret until then.
But a lot of people suspect that no such plan exists -- that May
doesn't have a clue what positions to take on issues like the ones
listed above. So with the Parliament debating these issues, May will
be forced to take positions on the issues prior to March. EU leaders
will watch these proceedings with a combination of amusement and
horror.
Britain is deeply divided by Brexit, and that extends to the
Parliament. Analysts are predicting that anti-Brexit MPs
will use the debating opportunities to delay the invocation
of Article 50 by up to a year.
May is appealing the decision to Britain's Supreme Court, which will
hear the case in December and issue a ruling in the middle of January
2017. So expect the Brexit controversy to become extremely heated
during the holiday season. Telegraph (London) and BBC
Related Articles
****
**** Italy's Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world's oldest bank, appears close to collapse
****
A proposed 5 billion euro bailout of Italy's Banco Monte dei Paschi di
Siena (MPS) by a consortium of other banks has been withdrawn, leading
to the possibility that MPS will collapse by the end of the year.
Italy's largest bank is Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), founded
in 1472, and the world's oldest operating bank. Its share of bad
loans comes to $55.2 billion of bad loans on its books. These bad
loans are so bad that it's estimated that selling these bad loans to a
third party would only get 20% of face value, which means that MPS
would require a bailout.
Investors are concerned that political pressure will force Italy's
government to use taxpayer money to bail out MPS. When Greece used
taxpayer money to bail out its banks, the result was that the
financial crisis spread from the banks to the entire country,
resulting in Greece's financial crisis, which is still unresolved.
Italy's financial problems would be larger than Greece's. Italy also
has a political issue: Prime minister Matteo Renzi has scheduled a
referendum on a constitutional change for December 4, and he has
promised to quit if he loses the vote.
According to a survey of 1,000 investors, Italy is now thought to be
the country most likely to leave the eurozone this year, pushing
Greece into second place. Reuters and Macedonia Online
and The Street
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, Theresa May, Article 50,
Italy, Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena, MPS, Matteo Renzi, Greece
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Britain's Brexit plans in disarray after court requires parliamentary approval
- Italy's Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world's oldest bank, appears close to collapse
****
**** Britain's Brexit plans in disarray after court requires parliamentary approval
****
Anti-Brexit protestors on June 25 in London (Getty)
A shock court decision on Thursday threatens to significantly delay
implementation of Brexit, the referendum mandate that Britain leave
the European Union. Negotiations between the UK and the EU are
scheduled to take two years, but that two-year period will not begin
until Britain's prime minister Theresa May invokes "Article 50," which
triggers the beginning of negotiations. May had previously announced
that she planned to invoke Article 50 in March of next year.
However, Britain's High Court on Thursday ruled that Theresa May
cannot invoke Article 50 on her own, without a vote in Britain's House
of Commons and House of Lords.
The court ruling immediately raised hopes in some quarters that Brexit
may therefore not take place at all, though analysts I heard seemed to
doubt that the parliament would be willing to reverse a decision
supported by popular vote in a referendum.
Nonetheless, the path to Brexit implementation is now in disarray
because Parliament will be debating the terms of the Brexit plan.
There are many major issues to be resolved in the negotiations with
the EU -- whether Britain will be part of the European Common Market,
whether Britain will have to continue accepting migrants, whether
Brits will need visas to visit EU countries, and vice versa, how the
land border between Northern Ireland (which is part of Britain) and
the Republic of Ireland (which is an independent nation in the EU)
will be managed, and so forth.
All of these issues require some sort of plan in advance of triggering
Article 50, and May had hoped to keep that plan a secret until then.
But a lot of people suspect that no such plan exists -- that May
doesn't have a clue what positions to take on issues like the ones
listed above. So with the Parliament debating these issues, May will
be forced to take positions on the issues prior to March. EU leaders
will watch these proceedings with a combination of amusement and
horror.
Britain is deeply divided by Brexit, and that extends to the
Parliament. Analysts are predicting that anti-Brexit MPs
will use the debating opportunities to delay the invocation
of Article 50 by up to a year.
May is appealing the decision to Britain's Supreme Court, which will
hear the case in December and issue a ruling in the middle of January
2017. So expect the Brexit controversy to become extremely heated
during the holiday season. Telegraph (London) and BBC
Related Articles
- Scotland considers separation from England as 'Hard Brexit' looms (15-Oct-2016)
- Bank of England uses 'sledgehammer' stimulus to fight Brexit slowdown (05-Aug-2016)
- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
****
**** Italy's Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world's oldest bank, appears close to collapse
****
A proposed 5 billion euro bailout of Italy's Banco Monte dei Paschi di
Siena (MPS) by a consortium of other banks has been withdrawn, leading
to the possibility that MPS will collapse by the end of the year.
Italy's largest bank is Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), founded
in 1472, and the world's oldest operating bank. Its share of bad
loans comes to $55.2 billion of bad loans on its books. These bad
loans are so bad that it's estimated that selling these bad loans to a
third party would only get 20% of face value, which means that MPS
would require a bailout.
Investors are concerned that political pressure will force Italy's
government to use taxpayer money to bail out MPS. When Greece used
taxpayer money to bail out its banks, the result was that the
financial crisis spread from the banks to the entire country,
resulting in Greece's financial crisis, which is still unresolved.
Italy's financial problems would be larger than Greece's. Italy also
has a political issue: Prime minister Matteo Renzi has scheduled a
referendum on a constitutional change for December 4, and he has
promised to quit if he loses the vote.
According to a survey of 1,000 investors, Italy is now thought to be
the country most likely to leave the eurozone this year, pushing
Greece into second place. Reuters and Macedonia Online
and The Street
Related Articles
- Italy bank crisis more dangerous to EU than Brexit (05-Jul-2016)
- Fearing more Brexit-like votes, EU abandons fiscal rules for Spain, Portugal, Italy (30-Jul-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, Theresa May, Article 50,
Italy, Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena, MPS, Matteo Renzi, Greece
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
