12-02-2016, 10:25 PM
*** 3-Dec-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi threatens to divert water from Pakistan to India's farmers
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** India's Narendra Modi threatens to divert water from Pakistan to India's farmers
****
![[Image: g161002b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161002b.jpg)
Indus River Valley (Reuters)
As tit-for-tat charges and insults between India and Pakistan continue
to escalate, India's prime minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday said
that India would abrogate the 56-year-old Indus Water Treaty and
divert water currently flowing from India to Pakistan back to India's
farmers.
Speaking to a rally in Punjab last week on Friday, Modi said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Under the Indus Water Treaty, India has the right
> over water of Satluj, Beas and Ravi rivers. It rightfully belongs
> to our farmers, but this water is not reaching the farmer's field,
> instead the water is flowing to Pakistan and eventually going to
> the sea. Governments came and went in Delhi, but farmers kept
> suffering as water continued to flow to Pakistan. Not any-more, I
> will ensure that farmers get what is rightfully theirs.
>
> This water is neither being utilized by Pakistan nor does it come
> in Indian farmers destiny. I have set-up a task force. I'm
> committed to ensure that every single drop of water, which is
> rightfully ours, under the Indus Water Treaty, is brought to the
> farmers in Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, and other parts of the
> country. ...
>
> There is no reason that we cannot use our rights (over our waters)
> and let our farmers suffer. I need your blessings in order to
> fulfill your requirements for watering your fields."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Sirajul Haq of the Islamist political party Jamaat-i-Islami responded:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Yesterday, prime minister of India Narendra Modi sent
> a message to Pakistan that he would block our rivers. Today,
> standing here in Karachi, near the mausoleum of Quaid-i-Azam
> Mohammad Ali Jinnah I want to inform Modi that the line does not
> exist on his palm that says that he can do any such thing. Mr
> Modi, if you stop our water, we will stop your
> breathing."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Pakistan officials so far has been relatively restrained in responding
to this threat, possibly viewing Modi's remarks as merely campaign
rhetoric. They pointed out that the Indus Water Treaty was mediated
by the World Bank in 1960, and has survived despite several wars
between the two sides. Pakistan media reports have pointed out that
Pakistan is already short of water, and that Modi's threat, if
implemented, would deal a severe blow to Pakistan's farmers. The News (Pakistan) and Hindustan Times (11-Nov) and Pak Observer and Dawn (Pakistan)
Related Articles
****
**** Dangerous tensions continue in Kashmir
****
Pakistan and India abandoned any pretense at cordial relations earlier
this year after a January 2 there was a terrorist attack on an Indian
air force base in Panthankot, Punjab, which India blamed on Pakistan.
Pakistan accused India of staging the attack to defame Pakistan.
The name-calling became extremely vitriolic after a September 18
terrorist attack on India's Uri army base in Kashmir. Four militants,
carrying guns and grenades, stormed an Indian army base in Uri in
Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers
were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst militant
terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.
This comes as the violence in Kashmir continues to increase. In
October, India relocated 10,000 people in India-controlled Kashmir
away from the Line of Control (LoC) that separates the India and
Pakistan regions of Kashmir, and last month Pakistan evacuated 8,000
people from Pakistan-controlled Kashmir away from the LoC. CNN (1-Oct) and CNN (16-Nov)
Related Articles
****
**** India says that Modi's 'demonetization' program reduced Kashmir violence
****
On November 8, India's prime minister declared 500-1000 rupee notes worthless.
This "demonetization"
policy has, in many ways, been an economic disaster, causing hardship
for many people who have been standing in lines at banks for hours at
a time just to exchange the worthless notes for new notes. Many
people have been unable to buy necessities like food, and some have
been stranded far from home, unable to purchase train tickets.
According to India's defense minister Manohar Parrikar, the
demonetization program has substantially reduced the amount of
violence in Kashmir, by reducing incidents of stone-pelting.
According to Parrikar:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Earlier, there were rates: Rs 500 for stone pelting
> [on security forces in Kashmir] and Rs 1,000 for doing something
> else. PM has brought terror funding to zero. In the last few days
> after PM's daring move there hasn't been stone pelting on security
> forces. I congratulate PM for it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
It's believed that separatist activists were paying stone-pelters in
counterfeit notes that had been printed in Pakistan. By making all
500-1000 rupee notes worthless, the counterfeit notes also became
worthless.
If all this is true, then it would certainly count as a fairly
spectacular success story, even if the reduction in stone-pelting only
lasts a few months. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
the violence in Kashmir is "organic" or "indigenous," in the sense
that it's not directed by armies or generals, but is rising up from
the people. The violence comes from various tribal and ethnic groups,
not from an army or militia obeying the orders of a national
commander.
As I described in a recent article,
India's last two generational crisis wars were India's
1857 Rebellion, which pitted India's Hindus against the British
colonialists, and the 1947 Partition war, which pitted Hindus and
Muslims against each other, following the partitioning of the Indian
subcontinent into India and Pakistan. As we described in that
article, the 1857 war led naturally to violence between Hindus and
Muslims decades later, and then to the 1947 war.
Now we're seeing that the 1947 war is leading, decades later, to new
violence between Hindus and Muslims. Generational Dynamics predicts
that we're seeing a kind of repeat of 1947, and that this increasing
violence will lead to a new generational crisis war between Hindus and
Muslims, and from there to full-scale war between Pakistan and India.
If Modi's demonetization program is really reducing the amount of
stone-pelting, then it's a development that can almost be described as
amazing. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's
only temporary, in that can't stop the generational changes that are
leading to a major new war between Pakistan and India. Times of India and Business Standard (India)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Narendra Modi, demonetization,
Kashmir, Pakistan, Sirajul Haq, Jamaat-i-Islami,
Indus Water Treaty, World Bank, Panthankot, Uri, Manohar Parrikar
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- India's Narendra Modi threatens to divert water from Pakistan to India's farmers
- Dangerous tensions continue in Kashmir
- India says that Modi's 'demonetization' program reduced Kashmir violence
****
**** India's Narendra Modi threatens to divert water from Pakistan to India's farmers
****
Indus River Valley (Reuters)
As tit-for-tat charges and insults between India and Pakistan continue
to escalate, India's prime minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday said
that India would abrogate the 56-year-old Indus Water Treaty and
divert water currently flowing from India to Pakistan back to India's
farmers.
Speaking to a rally in Punjab last week on Friday, Modi said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Under the Indus Water Treaty, India has the right
> over water of Satluj, Beas and Ravi rivers. It rightfully belongs
> to our farmers, but this water is not reaching the farmer's field,
> instead the water is flowing to Pakistan and eventually going to
> the sea. Governments came and went in Delhi, but farmers kept
> suffering as water continued to flow to Pakistan. Not any-more, I
> will ensure that farmers get what is rightfully theirs.
>
> This water is neither being utilized by Pakistan nor does it come
> in Indian farmers destiny. I have set-up a task force. I'm
> committed to ensure that every single drop of water, which is
> rightfully ours, under the Indus Water Treaty, is brought to the
> farmers in Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, and other parts of the
> country. ...
>
> There is no reason that we cannot use our rights (over our waters)
> and let our farmers suffer. I need your blessings in order to
> fulfill your requirements for watering your fields."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Sirajul Haq of the Islamist political party Jamaat-i-Islami responded:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Yesterday, prime minister of India Narendra Modi sent
> a message to Pakistan that he would block our rivers. Today,
> standing here in Karachi, near the mausoleum of Quaid-i-Azam
> Mohammad Ali Jinnah I want to inform Modi that the line does not
> exist on his palm that says that he can do any such thing. Mr
> Modi, if you stop our water, we will stop your
> breathing."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Pakistan officials so far has been relatively restrained in responding
to this threat, possibly viewing Modi's remarks as merely campaign
rhetoric. They pointed out that the Indus Water Treaty was mediated
by the World Bank in 1960, and has survived despite several wars
between the two sides. Pakistan media reports have pointed out that
Pakistan is already short of water, and that Modi's threat, if
implemented, would deal a severe blow to Pakistan's farmers. The News (Pakistan) and Hindustan Times (11-Nov) and Pak Observer and Dawn (Pakistan)
Related Articles
****
**** Dangerous tensions continue in Kashmir
****
Pakistan and India abandoned any pretense at cordial relations earlier
this year after a January 2 there was a terrorist attack on an Indian
air force base in Panthankot, Punjab, which India blamed on Pakistan.
Pakistan accused India of staging the attack to defame Pakistan.
The name-calling became extremely vitriolic after a September 18
terrorist attack on India's Uri army base in Kashmir. Four militants,
carrying guns and grenades, stormed an Indian army base in Uri in
Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers
were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst militant
terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.
This comes as the violence in Kashmir continues to increase. In
October, India relocated 10,000 people in India-controlled Kashmir
away from the Line of Control (LoC) that separates the India and
Pakistan regions of Kashmir, and last month Pakistan evacuated 8,000
people from Pakistan-controlled Kashmir away from the LoC. CNN (1-Oct) and CNN (16-Nov)
Related Articles
- New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation (19-Sep-2016)
- India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
****
**** India says that Modi's 'demonetization' program reduced Kashmir violence
****
On November 8, India's prime minister declared 500-1000 rupee notes worthless.
This "demonetization"
policy has, in many ways, been an economic disaster, causing hardship
for many people who have been standing in lines at banks for hours at
a time just to exchange the worthless notes for new notes. Many
people have been unable to buy necessities like food, and some have
been stranded far from home, unable to purchase train tickets.
According to India's defense minister Manohar Parrikar, the
demonetization program has substantially reduced the amount of
violence in Kashmir, by reducing incidents of stone-pelting.
According to Parrikar:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Earlier, there were rates: Rs 500 for stone pelting
> [on security forces in Kashmir] and Rs 1,000 for doing something
> else. PM has brought terror funding to zero. In the last few days
> after PM's daring move there hasn't been stone pelting on security
> forces. I congratulate PM for it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
It's believed that separatist activists were paying stone-pelters in
counterfeit notes that had been printed in Pakistan. By making all
500-1000 rupee notes worthless, the counterfeit notes also became
worthless.
If all this is true, then it would certainly count as a fairly
spectacular success story, even if the reduction in stone-pelting only
lasts a few months. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
the violence in Kashmir is "organic" or "indigenous," in the sense
that it's not directed by armies or generals, but is rising up from
the people. The violence comes from various tribal and ethnic groups,
not from an army or militia obeying the orders of a national
commander.
As I described in a recent article,
India's last two generational crisis wars were India's
1857 Rebellion, which pitted India's Hindus against the British
colonialists, and the 1947 Partition war, which pitted Hindus and
Muslims against each other, following the partitioning of the Indian
subcontinent into India and Pakistan. As we described in that
article, the 1857 war led naturally to violence between Hindus and
Muslims decades later, and then to the 1947 war.
Now we're seeing that the 1947 war is leading, decades later, to new
violence between Hindus and Muslims. Generational Dynamics predicts
that we're seeing a kind of repeat of 1947, and that this increasing
violence will lead to a new generational crisis war between Hindus and
Muslims, and from there to full-scale war between Pakistan and India.
If Modi's demonetization program is really reducing the amount of
stone-pelting, then it's a development that can almost be described as
amazing. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's
only temporary, in that can't stop the generational changes that are
leading to a major new war between Pakistan and India. Times of India and Business Standard (India)
Related Articles
- India's prime minister Narendra Modi declares 500-1000 rupee notes worthless (12-Nov-2016)
- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Narendra Modi, demonetization,
Kashmir, Pakistan, Sirajul Haq, Jamaat-i-Islami,
Indus Water Treaty, World Bank, Panthankot, Uri, Manohar Parrikar
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
