12-05-2016, 10:46 PM
*** 6-Dec-16 World View -- China and Russia in military competition in Tajikistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China and Russia in military competition in Tajikistan
****
![[Image: g161205b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161205b.jpg)
Joint China and Tajikistan military exercises in October (Asia-Plus)
In a major change in policy, China is becoming more militarily active
in the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan. Tajikistan, which was
one of the republics of the Soviet Union, is usually thought to be in
Russia's exclusive sphere of influence.
As we've reported in the past,
China has been economically very aggressive in Tajikistan. It's
thought that there are now 150,000 Chinese working in Tajikistan, and
China has been buying up industries and huge amounts of farmland. In
2011, Tajikistan agreed to hand over around 1% of its territory to
China in exchange for having some of its debts forgiven.
Unexpectedly, China's military activity in Tajikistan has also expanded
substantially. In September 2016, Beijing offered to build 11 new
border checkpoints and a new military facility along the
Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, which raised [1]some concerns in
Russia. On October 20–24, a combined 10,000 military personnel from
the National Army of Tajikistan and China's People’s Liberation Army
(PLA) were conducted five days of counterterrorism exercises in a
region bordering Afghanistan.
China's military activity in Tajikistan serves multiple objectives --
protecting its economic interests, defending Central Asia and itself
from jihadist terrorism, and containing Russia's influence. Russian
officials have not commented on this change so far, but it's certain
to raise tensions in Central Asia. Jamestown and The Diplomat and EurasiaNet (24-Oct)
Related Articles
****
**** Russia promises Tajikistan a 'large quantity' of military aircraft
****
On Monday, defense ministers of Russia and Tajikistan, meeting in
Moscow, signed a military aid agreement specifying that Russia would
provide a "large quantity" of military aircraft to Tajikistan over the
next year. Russia's defense minister Sergey Shoigu said after the
meeting:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Next year the key phase of our military-technical
> cooperation will begin, the delivery of weaponry and military
> equipment. In particular, this is a large quantity of aviation
> equipment, airplanes and helicopters. I think this will be
> implemented according to plan and on schedule. And, of course, it
> will contribute to stability in the region."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
According to a Tajik source, the deal will include combat aircraft,
armored vehicles and communications.
This agreement shows that China will not easily be able to displace
Russia in Tajikistan. Russia had a special unit of border guards at
the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border between 1992 and 2005 and repeatedly
repelled attacks by Taliban forces. Russia has had a military base in
Tajikistan for 70 years, and the lease of the military base was
extended for another 30 years in a 2012 agreement. The agreement to
deliver military aircraft may be an attempt to counter China's growing
influence.
According to Russian analyst Andrey Serenko, Russia's military
adventures in the Mideast and Ukraine may have left few resources to
keep China from expanding its influence:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"There is a danger in this new alliance, along with
> Pakistan and Afghanistan China is including Tajikistan, which
> Russia has until recently considered part of its zone of
> influence. Russia's involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East
> has resulted in us losing our position in Central Asia. It appears
> that in this 'Central Asian NATO' under the Chinese umbrella,
> Russia may be the odd one out."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Tajikistan also shares a long border with Afghanistan. Increasing
jihadist activity from the Taliban, the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and
Uighur separatists has raised fears of terrorist activity in
Tajikistan, and both China and Russia are concerned.
Furthermore, the jihadist threat from Afghanistan provides a
convenient justification for Russia and China to convince Tajikistan
to allow their troops on Tajikistan's soil. EurasiaNet and Asia-Plus (Tajikistan)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tajikistan, China, Russia, Afghanistan,
Sergey Shoigu, Andrey Serenko,
Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China and Russia in military competition in Tajikistan
- Russia promises Tajikistan a 'large quantity' of military aircraft
****
**** China and Russia in military competition in Tajikistan
****
Joint China and Tajikistan military exercises in October (Asia-Plus)
In a major change in policy, China is becoming more militarily active
in the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan. Tajikistan, which was
one of the republics of the Soviet Union, is usually thought to be in
Russia's exclusive sphere of influence.
As we've reported in the past,
China has been economically very aggressive in Tajikistan. It's
thought that there are now 150,000 Chinese working in Tajikistan, and
China has been buying up industries and huge amounts of farmland. In
2011, Tajikistan agreed to hand over around 1% of its territory to
China in exchange for having some of its debts forgiven.
Unexpectedly, China's military activity in Tajikistan has also expanded
substantially. In September 2016, Beijing offered to build 11 new
border checkpoints and a new military facility along the
Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, which raised [1]some concerns in
Russia. On October 20–24, a combined 10,000 military personnel from
the National Army of Tajikistan and China's People’s Liberation Army
(PLA) were conducted five days of counterterrorism exercises in a
region bordering Afghanistan.
China's military activity in Tajikistan serves multiple objectives --
protecting its economic interests, defending Central Asia and itself
from jihadist terrorism, and containing Russia's influence. Russian
officials have not commented on this change so far, but it's certain
to raise tensions in Central Asia. Jamestown and The Diplomat and EurasiaNet (24-Oct)
Related Articles
- China overtaking both Russia and US in influence in Central Asia (05-Aug-2016)
- Fears grow in Central Asia of an ISIS-Taliban alliance in Afghanistan (08-May-2015)
****
**** Russia promises Tajikistan a 'large quantity' of military aircraft
****
On Monday, defense ministers of Russia and Tajikistan, meeting in
Moscow, signed a military aid agreement specifying that Russia would
provide a "large quantity" of military aircraft to Tajikistan over the
next year. Russia's defense minister Sergey Shoigu said after the
meeting:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Next year the key phase of our military-technical
> cooperation will begin, the delivery of weaponry and military
> equipment. In particular, this is a large quantity of aviation
> equipment, airplanes and helicopters. I think this will be
> implemented according to plan and on schedule. And, of course, it
> will contribute to stability in the region."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
According to a Tajik source, the deal will include combat aircraft,
armored vehicles and communications.
This agreement shows that China will not easily be able to displace
Russia in Tajikistan. Russia had a special unit of border guards at
the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border between 1992 and 2005 and repeatedly
repelled attacks by Taliban forces. Russia has had a military base in
Tajikistan for 70 years, and the lease of the military base was
extended for another 30 years in a 2012 agreement. The agreement to
deliver military aircraft may be an attempt to counter China's growing
influence.
According to Russian analyst Andrey Serenko, Russia's military
adventures in the Mideast and Ukraine may have left few resources to
keep China from expanding its influence:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"There is a danger in this new alliance, along with
> Pakistan and Afghanistan China is including Tajikistan, which
> Russia has until recently considered part of its zone of
> influence. Russia's involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East
> has resulted in us losing our position in Central Asia. It appears
> that in this 'Central Asian NATO' under the Chinese umbrella,
> Russia may be the odd one out."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Tajikistan also shares a long border with Afghanistan. Increasing
jihadist activity from the Taliban, the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and
Uighur separatists has raised fears of terrorist activity in
Tajikistan, and both China and Russia are concerned.
Furthermore, the jihadist threat from Afghanistan provides a
convenient justification for Russia and China to convince Tajikistan
to allow their troops on Tajikistan's soil. EurasiaNet and Asia-Plus (Tajikistan)
Related Articles
- Afghan Taliban capture of Kunduz has major repercussions for Central Asia (29-Sep-2015)
- Russian troops may take control of Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan (17-Oct-2015)
- Tajikistan's bitter split with Iran tempts it to side with Saudi Arabia (19-Jan-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tajikistan, China, Russia, Afghanistan,
Sergey Shoigu, Andrey Serenko,
Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
