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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 21-Dec-16 World View -- Russia, Turkey scramble to mend relations by blaming US for assassination

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Man who shot Russia's ambassador in Turkey was in security forces
  • Turkey and Russia blame Fethullah Gulen and the US for the assassination
  • Both Turkey and Russia stand to gain by blaming US for assassination

****
**** Man who shot Russia's ambassador in Turkey was in security forces
****


[Image: g161220b.jpg]
Foreign ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkey meet in Moscow to discuss a Syria peace plan. The U.S. was not invited

Turkey's police have arrested six relatives of Mevlut Mert Altintas,
the 22 year old who shot Andrey Karlov, Russia's ambassador to Turkey,
in Ankara on Monday.

Little information about Altintas has been released. He was born in
western Turkey on the Aegean Sea, and has been working as a policeman
for 2-1/2 years.

He used his police badge on Monday to gain access to the art exhibit
where Karlov would be speaking, and to avoid having to go through a
security X-ray device. He took his place and stood behind Karlov as
part of Karlov's security detail. After Karlov had been speaking for
a few minutes, Altintas pulled a gun from his coat pocket and shot
Karlov dead. Anadolu (Ankara) and Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara)

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****
**** Turkey and Russia blame Fethullah Gulen and the US for the assassination
****


I've always considered it somewhat fanciful that Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed the aborted July 15 coup attempt on a
76-year-old political enemy living in the Pocono Mountains in
Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania, as if Fethullah Gulen had directed the coup
himself from his easy chair.

Erdogan has repeatedly asked the Obama administration to extradite
Gulen back to Turkey, charging him as being the leader of what Turkey
calls the Fetullah Terror Organization (FETO). Last month, Erdogan
said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I was disillusioned, because I would expect this? I
> served both as a prime minister and president in this country and
> whenever the U.S. requested extradition of those kinds of
> terrorists I handed them over. Obama also should have done it and
> handed that man to us."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

The Justice Department has said that they would be happen to extradite
Gulen to Turkey, provided that Turkey provides evidence satisfactory
to an American court of law that Gulen was really involved in the
coup. The administration says that it has not received such evidence.

There are other problems with automatically blaming Gulen.

Gulen is a Muslim cleric with a worldwide network of schools and
businesses, run by his followers. For Erdogan, this worldwide network
was for many years a good thing, a sign of a progressive Turkey,
fighting extremism, and providing education and jobs. But relations
between Erdogan and Gulen started to sour in 2012, and were severed
completely in 2013. Since then, this huge international network has
turned in Erdogan's eyes from a good thing to a bad thing, promoting
terrorism instead of fighting extremism.

This sudden change in Erdogan's view of Gulen has caused confusion,
and raised suspicion that the issues are more political than
otherwise. And so there's a great deal of skepticism when Turkey is
not able to provide any credible proof of Gulen's involvement in the
July 15 coup.

However, the continued presence of Gulen in the United States provides
a convenient target for Erdogan's blame and mockery. Whenever there's
a domestic problem, Erdogan can just blame it on Gulen and the United
States. Both Erdogan and Russia are increasingly blaming Monday's
assassination of Russia's ambassador on the US.

Ilnur Cevik is an advisor to Erdogan. He says that the US and Germany
are responsible for lots of things:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Growing relations and intensive cooperation in all
> areas between Turkey and Russia has created anger in the West,
> especially in the United States and Germany. The latest example
> has been the joint efforts of the two countries to save the
> civilian people of Aleppo. It was inevitable that the West would
> try to sabotage these relations. It is sad that they used a
> policeman affiliated to Fethullah Gulen's terrorist organization
> to assassinate the ambassador. This organization was also behind
> the downing of the Russian fighter that hurt our
> relations."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

So, the US and Germany are responsible not only for the assassination
of the Russia's ambassador, but also for the July 15 coup and, even
more incredibly, for Turkey's shootdown of the Russian warplane in
November of last year!! But it's very convenient for both countries,
rather than have to deal with the consequences to their own
relationships.

This is laughable, and it reminds me of a completely different story
in the news these days. The demented loony-left-wing socialist
president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros, has been so thoroughly
destroying his country's economy that the inflation rate is 67% per
month, and is continuing to accelerate. But he gets away with it by
blaming it all on a foreign conspiracy, led by the United States. It
seems that there is no leader's policy so loony or so destructive that
he can't get away with it by blaming the United States. World Bulletin (Turkey) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Hurriyet (Ankara)

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****
**** Both Turkey and Russia stand to gain by blaming US for assassination
****


The Turkish people have for years had to look on as Syria, Russia,
Iran and Hezbollah combine to massacre, bomb and slaughter hundreds of
thousands of civilians, including many women and children, who are
ethnic Turkmens and other ethnic groups close to Turkey, and to drive
millions more from their homes.

So why would Turkey be willing to bend over backwards to mend
relations with Russia?

There's no doubt that the past year has been hell for Turkey. There
have been six or eight major terrorist attacks in cities across the
country, perpetrated by the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
or the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). There
was the July 15 aborted coup attempt. The country's resources have
been strained by some three million refugees pouring into the country
to escape the war in Syria. There was the chaotic break with Russia
after a Russian warplane was shot down.

After the shootdown of Russia's warplane last year, Russia imposed
harsh sanctions on Turkey that were devastating to Turkey's economy.
Politically, Erdogan became increasingly isolated, having had very
public splits with Syria, Russia, Israel and Egypt. So, Erdogan began
healing some of those splits -- with Russia and Israel, though not
with Egypt. And Erdogan became resigned that Bashar al-Assad is here
to stay.

Russia has a completely different set of motivations. Russia is on
the verge of scoring a major political victory.

On Monday, leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey met for a summit in
Moscow to discuss a peace agreement for Syria. Turkey has dropped its
demand that Bashar al-Assad step down. The United States has become
so irrelevant to the Mideast that it was not invited, and besides,
both Turkey and Russia are blaming the United States for the
assassination and other problems.

For Russia, this is an opportunity to show the world that Russia is
back, it's in charge of the Mideast, while the US has been pushed out.
This is the kind of political victory that Vladimir Putin is working
for.

So this is a critical time for both Turkey and Russia. The
assassination of Russia's ambassador in Ankara has the potentially to
really explode the relationship between the two countries. How was an
off-duty security guard so easily able to get into the exhibition?
Why was the ambassador so poorly protected? After the shooting, why
the did the police shoot Altintas dead, rather than just wounding him,
which would have allowed Russian investigators to question him? Who
else was involved in the assassination plot?

By rushing to blame the United States, the two countries do not have
to deal with a lot of very difficult questions. In particular, Russia
can continue with its plan to declare itself the world leader in the
Mideast.

Generational Dynamics predicts that this friendship between Turkey and
Russia won't last, and that Russia and Turkey will be on opposite
sides of the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. Russians
and Turks have hated each other for centuries, and have fought many
bloody wars, and it won't be long before they're fighting one more.
Telegraph (London) and Tass (Moscow) and Sputnik News (Moscow)

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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Russia, Andrey Karlov,
Mevlüt Mert Altintas, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Fethullah Gulen, Fetullah Terror Organization, FETO,
Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros

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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
21-Dec-16 World View -- Russia, Turkey scramble to mend relations by blaming US - by John J. Xenakis - 12-21-2016, 07:17 AM
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