12-24-2016, 11:08 PM
(12-23-2016, 05:39 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(12-23-2016, 11:13 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > The Problem with the interpretation above is firstly that Russia
> has been primarily threatening the US for the past several
> years. Secondly while the quality of the Chinese nuclear arsenal
> is improving as it is being modernized, total inventory of Chinese
> missiles has largely remained the same. 300 Missiles can't take on
> two 5000 missile arsenals at the same time and hope to win.
>
When did Russia threaten the US? China repeatedly threatens war with
the US, over Taiwan and over the South China Sea, but not Russia.
China has rattled sabers over Taiwan and the South China Sea, but had never threatened war with the US. In fact, their artificial island activities in the South China Sea only started after the US had abandoned its prior regular traversals of the area with carrier battle groups due to the sequester, leaving a power vacuum.
Meanwhile, Russia has actually invaded two nations friendly to the US, Georgia and Ukraine. Notice how China has not invaded Taiwan. Russia has also done saber rattling, and in some cases that saber rattling has been explicitly nuclear.
Quote:Non-crisis wars are fought on rational considerations, such as
by counting numbers of missiles.
Crisis wars are like sex. They're driven by raw emotion, DNA and
hormones, and are often completely inappropriate and irrational.
From a purely rational point of view, the South never had a chance of
beating the North, and Japan never had a chance of defeating America.
And yet those wars went forward. Go figure.
The South thought they were likely to be able to secede peacefully; essentially their miscalculation was in failing to realize that the North would fight the war like a crisis war. Japan miscalculated similarly with respect to the US.
My understanding of your own theory is that this kind of miscalculation is exactly what causes crisis wars: people lose direct memory of the previous crisis war and aren't careful enough not to get into another one. Am I wrong? Are you saying people actually become insane about starting wars? That makes your theory a lot less credible, in my opinion.