12-29-2016, 11:11 PM
*** 30-Dec-16 World View -- Russia and Turkey announce a new ceasefire in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russia and Turkey announce a new ceasefire in Syria
****
![[Image: g161229b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161229b.jpg)
Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan
There have been two major ceasefire announcements so far this
years, plus a few smaller ones. None lasted more than a few days.
But Russia and Syria have previously declared that a victory in Aleppo
would mean victory in the entire war, and an end to the fighting. The
rebel groups would be so decimated, despondent and dispirited that
they'd lose the will to fight. So Russia's president Vladimir Putin
had to make good on that promise.
So even though the rebel groups fighting against Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad are nowhere near defeated, Russia and Turkey
on Thursday declared that there would be a nationwide ceasefire.
Let's point out a few things.
Why would the Syrian rebel groups sign on to the agreement? A
representative gave the answer in an interview on RFI on
Thursday (my transcription):
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Obviously after Aleppo I think everyone realizes that
> there is no limit to the level of violence and barbarism that can
> be exercised against any target, including hospitals and
> civilians, to reach some object. And therefore if one get that to
> stop, the military solution should absolutely be
> stopped."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
In other words, some of the "moderate" rebel groups signed on,
but only to stop the bombing.
And that's the problem with the whole deal. There's no compelling
force behind the ceasefire. It's all transitory. As soon as any one
of a number of factors on the ground changes, the whole ceasefire will
unravel, as previous ones have done.
I consider Bashar al-Assad to be the most volatile of the
participants. His air force is going to continue bombing al-Nusra and
ISIS forces, many of whole will be indistinguishable from the
"moderate" rebels that he's promised not to target. He considers all
of these rebels to be like cockroaches to be exterminated, and he
seems likely to be unable to control his impulses and target any of
them. As soon as another barrel bomb hits a hospital or a marketplace
or a hospital, it will be clear that there's no ceasefire.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also very volatile.
He used to get along with al-Assad until 2011, when al-Assad's
bombers started targeting innocent women and children, including
Palestinians in a refugee camp near Latakia. Erdogan must have
had to swallow hard to sign this deal, as he's watch Syrian
and Russian bombers target Turkmens and other ethnic groups related
to Turks, as well as Palestinians, whom Erdogan supports.
Iran could be pretty volatile as well. They're known to be strongly
against any Turkish presence in Syria, and Erdogan has no intention of
withdrawing from northern Syria. Also, there are pockets of Shias
living in regions controlled by rebels, and Iran will feel compelled
to protect them.
The only thing that's really changed on the ground in the last few
weeks is that the Russians have taken control of Aleppo. The rest of
Syria is still an uncontrolled scattered collection of militias,
armies and jihadists of various ethnicities and religious sects.
Peace talks are scheduled to be held within a month in Astana, the
capital city of Kazakhstan, assuming that the ceasefire is still
holding. The choice of Kazakhstan makes it clear that this is deal
involving Turkey, Russia and Iran, and not including the United
States, the United Nations, or the European Union. BBC and
Russia Today and Gulf News (Dubai) and Vice News
Related Articles
****
**** Damascus Syria is without water after reservoirs were poisoned
****
Four million people in Damascus, Syria's capital city, have been
without water for five days after water reservoirs were poisoned with
diesel. It's not clear who was responsible for the poisoning, but
it's believed that the perpetrators are some of the same militias that
signed on to the peace agreement on Thursday. However, they claim
that they're not responsible, since they would be harmed more than
anyone else.
Despite the ceasefire, Syrian warplanes have been bombing a valley
northwest of Damascus to recapture the region that provides most of
the water to Damascus. Reuters and Middle East Eye and Russia Today
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Russia, Turkey, Iran,
Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Alawite-istan, Rojava, Kazakhstan, Damascus
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia and Turkey announce a new ceasefire in Syria
- Damascus Syria is without water after reservoirs were poisoned
****
**** Russia and Turkey announce a new ceasefire in Syria
****
Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan
There have been two major ceasefire announcements so far this
years, plus a few smaller ones. None lasted more than a few days.
But Russia and Syria have previously declared that a victory in Aleppo
would mean victory in the entire war, and an end to the fighting. The
rebel groups would be so decimated, despondent and dispirited that
they'd lose the will to fight. So Russia's president Vladimir Putin
had to make good on that promise.
So even though the rebel groups fighting against Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad are nowhere near defeated, Russia and Turkey
on Thursday declared that there would be a nationwide ceasefire.
Let's point out a few things.
- "This time it's different." That's because, this time the
U.S. was completely excluded, and the negotiations took place in
Moscow rather than Geneva. I guess the Putin decided that it wasn't
that much fun anymore to make a fool of John Kerry again and again.
This agreement was reached between Russia, Turkey and Iran.
- Seven "moderate" rebel militias signed on to the deal, but a
number of others did not.
- There will be no ceasefire for jihadist groups, against whom
military action will continue. These include al-Qaeda linked Jabhat
al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front, now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS), and the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
- In September, Bashar al-Assad said with respect to a ceasefire
ceasefire deal:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We as a nation ... are delivering a message that the
> Syrian state is determined to recover all regions from the
> terrorists and restore security, infrastructure, and everything
> else that was destroyed in both human and material
> aspects."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
In fact, rebel groups control vast regions of Syria, and al-Assad is
left in control of a small part of country mockingly called
"Alawite-istan," named for al-Assad's ethnic group, Alawite.
- Al-Assad has signed on to the deal and promised not to target
moderate rebel groups or civilians, all of whom al-Assad considers to
be "terrorists." This means that Russia is controlling al-Assad, at
least for the time being.
- Turkey has troops in northern Syria, preventing the Kurds from
achieving their goal of taking control of much of northern Syria,
creating an independent Kurdish state called "Rojava." Turkey
considers the Syrian Kurds to be a major security threat to Turkey.
The Syrian Kurds have not signed on to the deal.
Why would the Syrian rebel groups sign on to the agreement? A
representative gave the answer in an interview on RFI on
Thursday (my transcription):
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Obviously after Aleppo I think everyone realizes that
> there is no limit to the level of violence and barbarism that can
> be exercised against any target, including hospitals and
> civilians, to reach some object. And therefore if one get that to
> stop, the military solution should absolutely be
> stopped."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
In other words, some of the "moderate" rebel groups signed on,
but only to stop the bombing.
And that's the problem with the whole deal. There's no compelling
force behind the ceasefire. It's all transitory. As soon as any one
of a number of factors on the ground changes, the whole ceasefire will
unravel, as previous ones have done.
I consider Bashar al-Assad to be the most volatile of the
participants. His air force is going to continue bombing al-Nusra and
ISIS forces, many of whole will be indistinguishable from the
"moderate" rebels that he's promised not to target. He considers all
of these rebels to be like cockroaches to be exterminated, and he
seems likely to be unable to control his impulses and target any of
them. As soon as another barrel bomb hits a hospital or a marketplace
or a hospital, it will be clear that there's no ceasefire.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also very volatile.
He used to get along with al-Assad until 2011, when al-Assad's
bombers started targeting innocent women and children, including
Palestinians in a refugee camp near Latakia. Erdogan must have
had to swallow hard to sign this deal, as he's watch Syrian
and Russian bombers target Turkmens and other ethnic groups related
to Turks, as well as Palestinians, whom Erdogan supports.
Iran could be pretty volatile as well. They're known to be strongly
against any Turkish presence in Syria, and Erdogan has no intention of
withdrawing from northern Syria. Also, there are pockets of Shias
living in regions controlled by rebels, and Iran will feel compelled
to protect them.
The only thing that's really changed on the ground in the last few
weeks is that the Russians have taken control of Aleppo. The rest of
Syria is still an uncontrolled scattered collection of militias,
armies and jihadists of various ethnicities and religious sects.
Peace talks are scheduled to be held within a month in Astana, the
capital city of Kazakhstan, assuming that the ceasefire is still
holding. The choice of Kazakhstan makes it clear that this is deal
involving Turkey, Russia and Iran, and not including the United
States, the United Nations, or the European Union. BBC and
Russia Today and Gulf News (Dubai) and Vice News
Related Articles
- Syria and Russia see 'the light at the end of the tunnel' after Aleppo victory (18-Dec-2016)
- Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement (11-Sep-2016)
- As Syria ceasefire begins, Bashar al-Assad quickly rejects it (13-Sep-2016)
- South Sudan increasingly parallels Syria in genocidal violence (24-Dec-2016)
****
**** Damascus Syria is without water after reservoirs were poisoned
****
Four million people in Damascus, Syria's capital city, have been
without water for five days after water reservoirs were poisoned with
diesel. It's not clear who was responsible for the poisoning, but
it's believed that the perpetrators are some of the same militias that
signed on to the peace agreement on Thursday. However, they claim
that they're not responsible, since they would be harmed more than
anyone else.
Despite the ceasefire, Syrian warplanes have been bombing a valley
northwest of Damascus to recapture the region that provides most of
the water to Damascus. Reuters and Middle East Eye and Russia Today
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Russia, Turkey, Iran,
Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Alawite-istan, Rojava, Kazakhstan, Damascus
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
