12-31-2016, 11:36 PM
(12-31-2016, 09:56 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Lol! So it's all my imagination, huh? I dreamed up the "China
> dream" myself? Maybe I hallucinated those illegal military bases
> on artificial islands in the SCS as well.
> I've been discussing the Taiwan issue with people for 15 years,
> and there are a lot of people in Congress and the military that
> are very protective of Taiwan. So I'm telling you that if China
> invades Taiwan, then we'll be at war within 6 hours. Beijing
> knows this. If they didn't know it, then they would already have
> sent troops into Taiwan, as they did in Tiananmen Square, as they
> have into Tibet and Xinjiang, and are threatening to do in Hong
> Kong, and as they do anywhere on the mainland at the slightest
> hint of dissent. Therefore, any threat of war against Taiwan is
> inevitably a threat of war against the United States. Chinese,
> Taiwanese and American officials are all aware of this, even if
> you claim not to be.
(12-31-2016, 12:05 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Ah, so you base your idea about China wanting to become "the
> principal superpower in the world" on what a bunch of westerners
> in DC say?
> I can well believe, due to that rising xenophobia and racism you
> talk about, that westerners in DC might have some delusional
> paranoia along the lines you outline. That doesn't mean that
> China is likely to start a war with the US, though; it means any
> war between the two is more likely to be started by the US.
> Of course, that may not make a lot of difference. If such a war
> went nuclear, the US would lose a bunch of cities and China would
> lose everything - which is perhaps another reason the US is more
> likely to start such a war. It's far from clear that Russia would
> come in on the US side, though; more likely they would sit it out
> until it was already decided. I suppose they might then decide to
> take over China, so that they can actually become the world's
> predominant superpower.
You say, "If such a war went nuclear, the US would lose a bunch of
cities and China would lose everything."
Actually, that's not the Chinese view. The Chinese position was
stated by a PLA top-level officer that I quoted in 2005:
General Zhu Chenghu Wrote:> If the Americans are determined to interfere [in Taiwan, then] we
> will be determined to respond. We ... will prepare ourselves for
> the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian [in central
> China]. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that
> hundreds ... of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.
** China and Japan head for military confrontation over disputed islands.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e050716
However, war with China can start with many scenarios besides a
standoff over Taiwan. It might begin in the Mideast, Europe, the
South China Sea, in Kashmir, and so forth, and then spread to
full-scale world war.
