Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

(01-17-2017, 12:04 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: > Jordan Goodspeed.

> I used to argue with you about referring to Boko Haram as a Hausa
> organization when they're really a Kanuri one (am right on that
> one), whether Thailand was in an Awakening or Crisis (have come
> around to your view), etc.

> I was asking if Generation Dynamics has a rough date range for
> when they think the crisis war will start.

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh. Jordan!!!

Of course I recognize your name, where I didn't recognize "SomeGuy".
Yeah, I did reach out to you on LinkedIn, though I wasn't sure it was
you -- it might have been some OTHER Jordan Goodspeed.

Thanks for the correction on the Kanuris. If memory serves, I thanked
you for the correction at the time. As for Thailand, I've always been
nervous about that timeline, even though I'm pretty sure it's correct.
(South Sudan is another current example that makes me nervous.) In
Thailand, what would really nail it is showing that the current "red
shirts" and "yellow shirts" are respectively provably connected to the
two sides in the Cambodian war, either through direct support or
indirect support.

> I was asking if Generation Dynamics has a rough date range for
> when they think the crisis war will start.

Well, you really can't tell. The Crisis Era began in 2003, so we're
pretty deep already into the Fourth Turning. The question is: When
will the Regeneracy occur, and how will it occur?

There are many possible scenarios for how the war will start. It
could be in the East or South China Sea, Pakistan vs India, in the
Mideast, or even something involving Ukraine. It's really a crap
shoot as to what will trigger a war.

And I like to compare a generational crisis war to an inappropriate
love affair. It's completely illogical and emotional. A person may
have sex with someone even knowing that it will end badly, even
destroy people's lives, but it happens anyway. Similarly, the South
attacked Fort Sumter with no chance of winning the war. Japan
attacked Pearl Harbor with no chance of winning the war. The Chinese
think we're weak and won't even fight back, and they might start
something at any time.

Here are three examples showing how hard (or impossible) it is to
specify anything like an exact time or scenario:

• In 2006, Israel's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon was a total
  disaster for Israel. When two Israeli soldiers were abducted by
  Hezbollah, Israel went into a state of total panic, and launched the
  war in Lebanon within four hours, with no plan and no objectives. In
  the next few weeks, the supposed objectives changed on an almost daily
  basis.
  
  ** How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hizbollah
  ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e061223
  
  If Lebanon had been in a generational Crisis era, then might have
  resulted in a crisis war. As it was, the war fizzled in a few weeks.
  But the point is that Israel's panic could not have been predicted in
  advance.
  
  
• After 9/11, we were at war with bin Laden in Afghanistan within 24
  hours. If bin Laden had been hiding out with the Uighurs in China, we
  might have been in a crisis war.
  
  
• To this day, no one knows what triggered the October 1929 panic,
  or why it occurred at that precise time. If we can't figure that out
  after 88 years, then we have no reason to believe that we can predict
  the next one, or that we can figure out what happened after it
  happens.

Warren's point is right as well. As you go deeper and deeper into a
fourth turning, then there's a continual increase in nationalism,
racism and xenophobia, so the climate gets better and better for a
regeneracy.