01-21-2017, 11:07 PM
*** 22-Jan-17 World View -- India begins deploying its 'Cold Start' military strategy against Pakistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** India begins deploying its 'Cold Start' military strategy against Pakistan
****
![[Image: g170121b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170121b.jpg)
Indian Army T-90S tanks on parade
Reports indicate that India is preparing to deploy 460 high-tech
battle tanks along its border with Pakistan, in order to implement its
"Cold Start" military strategy.
The Cold Start strategy has been discussed for years, although India
has wavered between denying it and acknowledging it at different
times.
The Cold Start strategy would be used when India wants to perform
lightning "Blitzkrieg" military operation with conventional
(non-nuclear) on Pakistani soil for whatever reason -- such as to
retaliate for a jihadist terror attack.
In its current configuration, could not mount such an attack in less
than a few weeks, giving Pakistan time to a nuclear counterattack,
which would force India to back down in most cases.
In the Cold Start scenario, India's army would be prepared to launch
an invasive attack almost immediately. The objective would be to meet
the military objective within a week, before Pakistan would have time
to launch nuclear retaliatory strikes.
Despite years of discussion and denial, the Cold Start strategy hasn't
been implemented because it's too expensive. It requires such things
as high-tech armor including tanks, attack helicopters, and multiple
rocket launchers with a 100 km range, and they have to be on alert at
all times. It also requires sophisticated intelligence, surveillance
and reconnaissance capabilities that India does not currently have.
India already maintains a sizable tank force along the Pakistan
border, but with decades-old technology.
The reported purchase of hundreds of high-tech Russian tanks suggests
that India is finally moving ahead with its Cold Start strategy.
Relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated significantly during
2016 because of repeated violence during anti-India protests in
India-controlled Kashmir. India blamed the violence on Pakistan,
while Pakistan denied responsibility. Russia Today and The Diplomat
****
**** Unintended consequence: Cold Start strategy may trigger nuclear war
****
The objective of the Cold Start strategy is to be able to complete
attain a military objective quickly with a "Blitzkrieg" attack using
conventional weapons, without risking a nuclear war.
However, some India analysts are saying that the strategy may have the
unintended consequence of making a nuclear war more likely.
According to defense analyst Nitin Mehta:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Cold Start doctrine essentially will prepare for
> the next wars, which will emerge on short notice, will be of short
> duration, and will be fought at high tempo and intensity. The
> doctrine would mean combined operations by air, land and sea
> forces, which will require greater coordination headed by a senior
> military official."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Gurmeet Kanwal, also a retired Indian Army brigadier and defense
analyst, said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Indian political and military leaders and strategic
> analysts believe that there is clear strategic space for a
> conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold because nuclear
> weapons are not weapons of war fighting. They are convinced that
> for Pakistan, it would be suicidal to launch a nuclear strike
> against India or Indian forces, as it would invite massive
> retaliation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Both of these analysts advise caution because of the assumptions being
made in the context of a very high risk and very costly strategy. The
strategy is based on the questionable assumption that a rapid military
action by massive armored attacks will deter Pakistan from launching
nuclear counter strikes in retaliation.
In fact, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaj Asif completely rejects
those assumptions:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We will destroy India if it dares to impose war on
> us. Pakistan's army is fully prepared to answer any misadventure
> of India. We have not made atomic devices to display in a
> showcase. If a such a situation arises we will use it (nuclear
> weapons) and eliminate India."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
China Topix and Defense News
Related Articles
****
**** Russia and India declare their love for each other
****
India's prime minister last week said in a speech:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Russia is an abiding friend. President Putin and I
> have held long conversations on the challenges that confront the
> world today. Our trusted and strategic partnership, especially in
> the field of defense has deepened."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
At a meeting in October of last year, Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Russia's
Rostec State Corporation and a close aide to Russia's president
Vladimir Putin, said that Russia will always stand by India:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We are ready not just to deliver the most serious
> weapons, and the most important weapons, but continue to give our
> state of art technology.
>
> Russia is a friend, an ally [of India] and not a business
> partner. Russia stood by India during its darkest hours. Next year
> will mark 70 years of our relationship. It has been a long time.
> In the not so recent past, when India was under sanctions, we were
> pretty much the only partner for India.
>
> Russia has been a partner not only in every day military supplies
> but also in the most sensitive and most important supplies,
> including a nuclear submarine which was rented to India for you to
> use."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
China and Pakistan also have a deep love relationship. As I've
reported in the past, China and Pakistan describe their relationship
as "all-weather friends," "deeper than the deepest ocean," "sweeter
than honey" and "dearer than eyesight."
As I've been writing for many years, Generational Dynamics predicts
that the world is headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war, where
China's allies will include Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries,
and America's allies will include India, Russia and Iran. Russia and India Report and India Today (23-Oct-2016)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Russia, Cold Start,
Nitin Mehta, Gurmeet Kanwal, Khawaj Asif, Sergei Chemezov
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- India begins deploying its 'Cold Start' military strategy against Pakistan
- Unintended consequence: Cold Start strategy may trigger nuclear war
- Russia and India declare their love for each other
****
**** India begins deploying its 'Cold Start' military strategy against Pakistan
****
Indian Army T-90S tanks on parade
Reports indicate that India is preparing to deploy 460 high-tech
battle tanks along its border with Pakistan, in order to implement its
"Cold Start" military strategy.
The Cold Start strategy has been discussed for years, although India
has wavered between denying it and acknowledging it at different
times.
The Cold Start strategy would be used when India wants to perform
lightning "Blitzkrieg" military operation with conventional
(non-nuclear) on Pakistani soil for whatever reason -- such as to
retaliate for a jihadist terror attack.
In its current configuration, could not mount such an attack in less
than a few weeks, giving Pakistan time to a nuclear counterattack,
which would force India to back down in most cases.
In the Cold Start scenario, India's army would be prepared to launch
an invasive attack almost immediately. The objective would be to meet
the military objective within a week, before Pakistan would have time
to launch nuclear retaliatory strikes.
Despite years of discussion and denial, the Cold Start strategy hasn't
been implemented because it's too expensive. It requires such things
as high-tech armor including tanks, attack helicopters, and multiple
rocket launchers with a 100 km range, and they have to be on alert at
all times. It also requires sophisticated intelligence, surveillance
and reconnaissance capabilities that India does not currently have.
India already maintains a sizable tank force along the Pakistan
border, but with decades-old technology.
The reported purchase of hundreds of high-tech Russian tanks suggests
that India is finally moving ahead with its Cold Start strategy.
Relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated significantly during
2016 because of repeated violence during anti-India protests in
India-controlled Kashmir. India blamed the violence on Pakistan,
while Pakistan denied responsibility. Russia Today and The Diplomat
****
**** Unintended consequence: Cold Start strategy may trigger nuclear war
****
The objective of the Cold Start strategy is to be able to complete
attain a military objective quickly with a "Blitzkrieg" attack using
conventional weapons, without risking a nuclear war.
However, some India analysts are saying that the strategy may have the
unintended consequence of making a nuclear war more likely.
According to defense analyst Nitin Mehta:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Cold Start doctrine essentially will prepare for
> the next wars, which will emerge on short notice, will be of short
> duration, and will be fought at high tempo and intensity. The
> doctrine would mean combined operations by air, land and sea
> forces, which will require greater coordination headed by a senior
> military official."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Gurmeet Kanwal, also a retired Indian Army brigadier and defense
analyst, said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Indian political and military leaders and strategic
> analysts believe that there is clear strategic space for a
> conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold because nuclear
> weapons are not weapons of war fighting. They are convinced that
> for Pakistan, it would be suicidal to launch a nuclear strike
> against India or Indian forces, as it would invite massive
> retaliation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Both of these analysts advise caution because of the assumptions being
made in the context of a very high risk and very costly strategy. The
strategy is based on the questionable assumption that a rapid military
action by massive armored attacks will deter Pakistan from launching
nuclear counter strikes in retaliation.
In fact, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaj Asif completely rejects
those assumptions:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We will destroy India if it dares to impose war on
> us. Pakistan's army is fully prepared to answer any misadventure
> of India. We have not made atomic devices to display in a
> showcase. If a such a situation arises we will use it (nuclear
> weapons) and eliminate India."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
China Topix and Defense News
Related Articles
- In major strategic escalation, Pakistan will use tactical nuclear weapons against India (22-Oct-2015)
- Generational history of cow protection in India and Hinduism (07-Aug-2016)
****
**** Russia and India declare their love for each other
****
India's prime minister last week said in a speech:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Russia is an abiding friend. President Putin and I
> have held long conversations on the challenges that confront the
> world today. Our trusted and strategic partnership, especially in
> the field of defense has deepened."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
At a meeting in October of last year, Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Russia's
Rostec State Corporation and a close aide to Russia's president
Vladimir Putin, said that Russia will always stand by India:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We are ready not just to deliver the most serious
> weapons, and the most important weapons, but continue to give our
> state of art technology.
>
> Russia is a friend, an ally [of India] and not a business
> partner. Russia stood by India during its darkest hours. Next year
> will mark 70 years of our relationship. It has been a long time.
> In the not so recent past, when India was under sanctions, we were
> pretty much the only partner for India.
>
> Russia has been a partner not only in every day military supplies
> but also in the most sensitive and most important supplies,
> including a nuclear submarine which was rented to India for you to
> use."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
China and Pakistan also have a deep love relationship. As I've
reported in the past, China and Pakistan describe their relationship
as "all-weather friends," "deeper than the deepest ocean," "sweeter
than honey" and "dearer than eyesight."
As I've been writing for many years, Generational Dynamics predicts
that the world is headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war, where
China's allies will include Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries,
and America's allies will include India, Russia and Iran. Russia and India Report and India Today (23-Oct-2016)
Related Articles
- China extends its military buildup with Pakistan (27-Apr-2015)
- Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, China sign economic and military agreements (01-Sep-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Russia, Cold Start,
Nitin Mehta, Gurmeet Kanwal, Khawaj Asif, Sergei Chemezov
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
