01-22-2017, 10:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-23-2017, 05:45 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 23-Jan-17 World View -- Explosive Israeli policy decisions reportedly put on hold at Trump's request
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Explosive Israeli policy decisions reportedly put on hold at Trump's request
****
![[Image: g170122b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170122b.jpg)
Israeli Arabs in the Oslo Generation (Reuters)
Two potentially explosive policy decisions related to Israel and the
Mideast have been put on hold, reflecting the recognition by both the
American and Israeli administrations of the need for caution:
Internationally, the pressure on Israel is in a bit of a lull right
now. The knife and car attacks and other attacks by young
Palestinians on Israelis that were surging in 2015 have subsided,
while the tensions over the so-called "peace process" have subsided
because the international focus is on the wars in Syria, Iraq and
Yemen.
So the delay in implementing these two explosive policy decisions is
welcome because it continues this relative lull for a while longer.
Decisions like these should not be implemented without two things:
NBC News and AP
****
**** Israel prepares for the Palestinian 'Oslo Generation'
****
As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts a
full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against
Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. There is no
guarantee that Israel will survive this war.
Politicians often get confused about who's in charge, and believe that
they control events. As I've written many times, it's a core
principle of generational theory that, even in a dictatorship, major
decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people, and
that politicians are irrelevant except insofar as they're implementing
the wishes of the masses of people. In the case of the Palestinians,
the average age is less than 20 years old, meaning that major events
will be determined not by the 80 year old politicians, but by the
masses of teens and 20-somethings.
This is the "Oslo generation" that I've described in the past. These
kids were all born after the 1993 Oslo accords that were supposed to
bring peace to the Mideast, but are perceived as accomplishing
nothing. These kids feel angry and frustrated, they do not trust
their leaders, and they are willing to do what they can to "get things
done."
Nationalist feelings are extremely high at the present time among both
the Palestinians and Israelis. This is exactly the kind of climate
that leads to both sides setting red lines and taking harsh steps that
lead to tit-for-tat reprisals and revenge. That's why the best policy
now is the cautious policy, one that is least likely to result in
retaliation and revenge, and to use the time available to prepare for
the inevitable war that cannot be prevented. Arab News
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, West Bank,
Maaleh Adumim, Oslo Generation
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Explosive Israeli policy decisions reportedly put on hold at Trump's request
- Israel prepares for the Palestinian 'Oslo Generation'
****
**** Explosive Israeli policy decisions reportedly put on hold at Trump's request
****
Israeli Arabs in the Oslo Generation (Reuters)
Two potentially explosive policy decisions related to Israel and the
Mideast have been put on hold, reflecting the recognition by both the
American and Israeli administrations of the need for caution:
- Reports that President Donald Trump on Monday was going to
move the American embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem were
shot down by administration officials, saying that they were only at
"the very beginning" of discussing plans to move the embassy.
- Under pressure from Trump, Israel's prime minister Benjamin
Netanyahu has asked his cabinet to postpone plans to annex a portion
of the West Bank, the Maaleh Adumim settlement near
Jerusalem.
Internationally, the pressure on Israel is in a bit of a lull right
now. The knife and car attacks and other attacks by young
Palestinians on Israelis that were surging in 2015 have subsided,
while the tensions over the so-called "peace process" have subsided
because the international focus is on the wars in Syria, Iraq and
Yemen.
So the delay in implementing these two explosive policy decisions is
welcome because it continues this relative lull for a while longer.
Decisions like these should not be implemented without two things:
- Laying the groundwork with an extensive campaign to educate
the public, especially Palestinians, so that even if they disagree
with the decisions, they'll understand them.
- Coming up with something to give in return, such as closing down
some little-used settlement elsewhere in the West Bank.
NBC News and AP
****
**** Israel prepares for the Palestinian 'Oslo Generation'
****
As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts a
full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against
Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. There is no
guarantee that Israel will survive this war.
Politicians often get confused about who's in charge, and believe that
they control events. As I've written many times, it's a core
principle of generational theory that, even in a dictatorship, major
decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people, and
that politicians are irrelevant except insofar as they're implementing
the wishes of the masses of people. In the case of the Palestinians,
the average age is less than 20 years old, meaning that major events
will be determined not by the 80 year old politicians, but by the
masses of teens and 20-somethings.
This is the "Oslo generation" that I've described in the past. These
kids were all born after the 1993 Oslo accords that were supposed to
bring peace to the Mideast, but are perceived as accomplishing
nothing. These kids feel angry and frustrated, they do not trust
their leaders, and they are willing to do what they can to "get things
done."
Nationalist feelings are extremely high at the present time among both
the Palestinians and Israelis. This is exactly the kind of climate
that leads to both sides setting red lines and taking harsh steps that
lead to tit-for-tat reprisals and revenge. That's why the best policy
now is the cautious policy, one that is least likely to result in
retaliation and revenge, and to use the time available to prepare for
the inevitable war that cannot be prevented. Arab News
Related Articles
- Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
- President Trump's inauguration speech links today's America to the 1930s (21-Jan-2017)
- Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
- France issues ultimatum to Israel as West Bank tensions grow (02-Feb-2016)
- Hezbollah backs down from war with Israel (31-Jan-2015)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, West Bank,
Maaleh Adumim, Oslo Generation
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
