01-28-2017, 11:23 AM
Quote:> They're also directed at America. And
> at India. And at Japan.
(01-27-2017, 08:49 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: > We've seen ample evidence for nationalist animosities directed
> towards Japan, the Chinese have been stoking the coals on that one
> for years. America? To a point, in the sense that we are
> standing in the way of them and their "rightful place in the sun",
> as it were. India? That's seems less nationalist and more
> strategic, vis securing their supply line through Pakistan to
> Gwadar, or fears of encirclement. Where is the evidence for
> Russia-China tensions within the past few years? The US and Japan
> prior to WWII? The US had been denouncing them for years, and
> slapped an oil embargo on them to boot. The South and the North
> prior to the Civil War? Bleeding Kandas, the Caning of Charles
> Sumner, John Brown's raid on Harper's Ferry, there's no need to go
> on. Israel and Hezbollah? Again, long standing, and it's a
> conflict that isn't finished. Wars don't just break out from
> clear skies. And please don't tell me the most recent thing
> you've got are the Sino-Soviet split back in the 60s. They
> actually addressed all of the outstanding border disputes in 2004,
> starting in the '90s. Putin and Xi Jinping are reportedly quite
> friendly. I'm not trying to be difficult, where are you seeing
> this tension building now?
I agree with your analysis here. There's a point that I've made in
the past but not recently that really America is really one of the
least hated countries in the world. If you listen to the news media
and you hear almost every politician blame America for almost
everything, and particularly now when the international media have
gone hysterically ballistic over Trump, you would think that in fact
America is the most hated nation in the world. But that hatred is all
fatuous political nonsense. I remember thinking this years ago when
there was widespread anti-American rioting in Pakistan over the Afghan
war and drone strikes in FATA. It was clear that these anti-American
rioters did not wish any harm to America -- they simply wanted America
to leave. That kind of anti-Americanism is very different from hating
America.
So I agree with you that Xi Jinping is not going to get out of bed one
morning and say, "Gee, I think I'll push the Red Button today to
launch missiles and destroy 50 American cities. That'll be fun."
But that's not how it's going to go. The fact is that China has
developed all these missile systems capable of attacking American
cities, military bases and aircraft carriers. Those aren't just going
to sit there forever. They're going to get used. So the only issue
is the scenario.
So here's a perfectly plausible scenario: A border war between India
and Pakistan begins to escalate. China comes in on Pakistan's side,
and Russia comes in on India's side. At first it's only for support
-- supplying weapons and logistics, for example -- but sooner or later
Russian and Chinese forces start shooting at each other. Pakistan's
blood brothers in Saudi Arabia come to their aid, while Iran starts
helping out with India. The US stays out of it as long as it can, and
calls for peace, but is really on India's side. China wants to send
warships to the India Ocean to support Pakistan, but they're blocked
by American warships. China decides that it has to "solve the America
problem once and for all," and launches its battery of nuclear
missiles to clear out the warships blocking China's ships, and on
American cities as well. By that time, the US is shooting back, and
everyone is starting to use nuclear weapons.
That's just one scenario. You could imagine another scenario where
the Syrian war expands to a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, pulling
in Pakistan and India, etc. Or maybe it'll be Turkey vs Greece. Or
maybe it'll be Israel vs the Arabs. It could even start with an
escalating border dispute between Colombia and Venezuela.
The thing that distinguishes generational Crisis eras from other eras
is that in other eras the public mood is against war, because the
survivors of the last Crisis war are still around, while in a Crisis
era the public mood becomes highly nationalistic and favors wars.
That's why small wars in Unraveling eras don't escalate, while small
wars in Crisis eras lead to the tit-for-tat setting of escalating red
lines leads to a Regeneracy and a full-scale generational crisis war
-- in this case a world war.
