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Generational Dynamics World View
(01-28-2017, 12:03 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:
Quote:So here's a perfectly plausible scenario: A border war between India
and Pakistan begins to escalate. China comes in on Pakistan's side,
and Russia comes in on India's side. At first it's only for support
-- supplying weapons and logistics, for example -- but sooner or later
Russian and Chinese forces start shooting at each other. Pakistan's
blood brothers in Saudi Arabia come to their aid, while Iran starts
helping out with India. The US stays out of it as long as it can, and
calls for peace, but is really on India's side. China wants to send
warships to the India Ocean to support Pakistan, but they're blocked
by American warships. China decides that it has to "solve the America
problem once and for all," and launches its battery of nuclear
missiles to clear out the warships blocking China's ships, and on
American cities as well. By that time, the US is shooting back, and
everyone is starting to use nuclear weapons.

This is where we diverge.  Russia's relations with India have long had more to do with export markets (particularly for arms) than any real alliance structure, and indeed Russia has recently boosted arrangements with Pakistan in order to balance against India's rapprochement with the US, as well as to deal with the threat posed by the Taliban to its own position in Central Asia.  It never intervened in any of the previous Indo-Pakistani conflicts, AFAIK, and I don't see why it would now.  China is relatively cool to India, both because of their border disputes, but more because it views its emerging relationship with the US as an attempt at encirclement by the latter.  I also don't see why it would use its relatively limited nuclear arsenal to strike at US forces in the Western Pacific when it has been building up its conventional forces to do the same thing, cheaper, with less risk of escalation, and with the ability to keep their own strategic weapons in reserve.  Things COULD escalate to a nuclar conflict, but probably not as an opening gambit.  YMMV, of course.

I also find that particular scenario a little questionable, but I think a similar result could be reached another way.  In particular, both Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons of their own.  I can imagine a conflict between Pakistan and India involving incursions into Chinese territory by India, which along with nuclear saber rattling from India might cause China to promise nuclear backup to Pakistan.  Emboldened, Pakistan might actually use a nuke, and then India would retaliate, and China might feel obligated to make good on its promise.  And if China nuked a city with a large American expatriate community - or if Pakistan or India did that directly - that might draw the US in.
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - by Warren Dew - 01-28-2017, 01:10 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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