01-28-2017, 07:56 PM
(01-28-2017, 06:45 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(01-28-2017, 02:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: How World War III could begin in Latvia.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/16/how-...in-latvia/
I could see Russia doing as he says. I disagree that it's inconsistent with realism. His contention that "A truly rational Russia would not see NATO and European Union expansion as a threat, because the liberal order is open and inclusive and would actually augment Russia’s security and prosperity", while believed in the West, is not verifiable to Russia. A Russian realist would have to consider it a conjecture, not proven fact.
There's an internal contradiction in the article. He says Russia's intervention would be done so as to permit plausible deniability. Why? Well, exactly so that NATO's intervention would not result in a war with Russia.
All the US needs to do is say, "we credit the Russian claims that they are not involved in the conflict, and we are intervening to help a NATO member with respect to internal rebellion". For Putin to turn that into a war, he has to say, "oh, no, those guys aren't internal after all, they're Russian". If he was going to say that, why set up the plausible deniability in the first place?
Incidentally, that's exactly what the US should have said with respect to Ukraine, as justification for giving them whatever arms they needed.
Yeah, the moral hysteria over Putin's Russia is grossly overdone. I doubt very much Putin is looking to pick a fight with NATO. Note, that is not the same as caving to everything the West asks for. The intervention in Syria served a very useful purpose of showing that Russia can bring pressure to bear on multiple fronts, without risking a counterproductive escalation on any one of them.
