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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 31-Jan-17 World View -- US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Philippines war on drugs in chaos after murder of S. Korean businessman
  • US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats

****
**** Philippines war on drugs in chaos after murder of S. Korean businessman
****


[Image: g170130b.jpg]
Rodrigo Duterte

The "war on drugs" launched by Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte
has been extremely popular, even as it's resulted in the deaths of
more than 7,000 people at the hands of the police in extrajudicial
killings. Duterte had vowed to eradicate the country's drug problem
by March of this year, but now says that it will continue until his
term ends in 2022.

Those same police had further abused their power by kidnapping Jee
Ick-joo, a South Korean businessman, apparently to collect a ransom.
The kidnapping was botched, and the victim was killed by strangulation
inside the grounds of the national police headquarters, Camp Crame.
Some suspects in the murder are still at large, and Duterte has given
them 48 hours to turn themselves in, or have a dead-or-alive bounty on
their heads of 5 million pesos ($100,000).

The murder has infuriated the South Korean public, and has embarrassed
Duterte to the extent that he's begin forced to suspend his war on
drugs in order to conduct a war on "corrupt police." He will disband
all the anti-drug units in the police. In a press conference on
Sunday, Duterte said,

> [indent]<QUOTE>"You policemen are the most corrupt. You are corrupt
> to the core. It's in your system. Cleanse your ranks. Review
> their cases. Give me a list of who the scalawags
> are."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

Instead, he plans to create a "narco police" command under the
existing Philippine Drugs Enforcement Agency that will target police
involved in the drugs trade.

Philippines National Police Chief Gen. Ronald dela Rosa said on
Monday, "We will cleanse our ranks. . .then maybe after that, we can
resume our war on drugs. Rogue cops, beware! We no longer have a war
on drugs; we now have a war on scalawags."

Human Rights Watch is dismissing the new policy as a stunt and a
"cynical PR gesture." Foreign Policy and Sydney Morning Herald

****
**** US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats
****


Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte was infuriated when President
Barack Obama criticized the violations of human rights in the "war on
drugs" when he took office in June. In response, Duterte called Obama
"the son of a whore," and threatened to scrap the Enhanced Defense
Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that had been signed in 2014, a move that
was opposed by Duterte's own ministers.

The EDCA agreement allows the expansion of rotational deployment of
U.S. ships, aircraft and troops at five bases in the Philippines as
well as the storage of equipment for humanitarian and maritime
security operations at the five locations.

At a news conference on Monday, Duterte said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Now, here is my worry: The United States is building
> depots. They are unloading arms in Palawan, in Cagayan de Oro, and
> in Pampanga. I am serving notice to the Armed Forces of the
> United States: Do not do it. I will not allow it."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

However, Philippines military spokesman Brigadier-General Restituto
Padilla said, "There was no confirmed incident of this nature." He
said that only rubber boats, generator sets and materials for building
shelters would be stored in Philippine facilities.

Duterte's disgust with the United States has been matched by his
fawning over China and Russia. He's asked China to supply two to
three fast boats, two drones, sniper rifles and a robot for bomb
disposal, in a $14 million arms donation. Russia has offered hardware
such as ships, submarines, planes and helicopter.

As I've written many times, it's a core principle of generational
theory that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are
determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not
by politicians.

The relevance to Duterte is that the United States is overwhelmingly
viewed favorably by the people of the Philippines, while the people of
China and Russia are viewed far less favorably. In particularly,
there is an enormous mutual hostility between the Chinese and Filipino
people. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries will be on one side, and the US, Russia, India and Iran will
be on the other side. The popularity of the United States among the
Filipino people means that Duterte's dalliance with China will be
short-lived, and that the Philippines will side with the United States
against China in the approaching war. Manila Times and Reuters and The Diplomat

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte,
South Korea, Jee Ick-joo, Camp Crame,
Philippine Drugs Enforcement Agency, Ronald dela Rosa,
Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, EDCA,
Brigadier-General Restituto Padilla

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John J. Xenakis
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
31-Jan-17 World View -- US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte - by John J. Xenakis - 01-30-2017, 11:04 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
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