Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

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January 26, 2017: Since 2014 Russia has been making a lot of headlines
but not much else. The economy is a mess and despite government
predictions that the economy can “stabilize” if oil is over $50 a
barrel (where it seems to be headed) and there would be two percent
GDP growth in 2017 (versus a decline of .6 percent in 2016). The
reality is that the real average income of Russians has, as of the end
of 2016, been declining 25 months in a row and the decline
continues. With so many people seeing their income decline corruption
is getting worse, despite vigorous efforts to curb it. The number of
best educated and capable Russians who have left the country since
2014 has now reached 1.5 million. The poor are getting poorer and more
Russians are slipping into poverty. The military is telling its
veteran officers and NCOs that a new benefit for ex-military personnel
is preferential treatment when it comes to getting unemployment
benefits. There is still the implied promise of a government job for
retired officers but, well, you know hard times and all that. And then
there are the foreign cash reserves, essential for buying
imports. Those reserves will be exhausted later in 2017 or in 2018. So
no, the economic news is not good.

The 2016 international corruption ratings show the world that Russia
is not making much progress dealing with corruption and is stuck near
the bottom (131 out of 176 nations rated). Corruption in the
Transparency International Corruption Perception Index is measured on
a 1 (most corrupt) to 100 (not corrupt) scale. The most corrupt
nations (usually North Korea and Somalia) have a rating of under 15
while of the least corrupt (usually Denmark) is often 90 or
higher. African nations are the most corrupt, followed by Middle
Eastern ones. The current Russian score is 29 compared to 40 for
China, 72 for Japan, 62 for Poland and 74 for the United States. A
lower corruption score is common with nations in economic
trouble. Russia has the same score as Ukraine and most of the other
nations that used to be part of the Soviet Union. Do you see a pattern
here? A growing number of Russians (and others who used to be ruled by
Russians) certainly do.

Invading Ukraine and Syria has not helped solve any of the fundamental
problems but have made for great propaganda that sort of distracts
Russians from how much life sucks at home. What went wrong? Russia
entered the 21st century with a new elected government dominated by
former secret police (KGB) officers who promised to restore economic
and civil order. They did so but in the process are turning Russia
into a police state with less political and economic freedom. A
growing number of Russians opposed this and the government responded
by appealing to nationalism. Russia has returned to police state ways
and the traditional threatening attitude towards neighbors. Rather
than being run by corrupt communist bureaucrats, the country is now
dominated by corrupt businessmen, gangsters and self-serving
government officials. The semi-free economy is more productive than
the centrally controlled communist one but that just provides more
money to steal. A rebellion against the new dictatorship has been
derailed by astute propaganda depicting Russia as under siege by the
West. Yet opinion polls that show wide popular support for this
paranoid fantasy has left enough Russians with democratic impulses to
continue leading the struggle for better government and needed
reforms. For now most Russians want economic and personal security and
are willing to tolerate a police state to get it. That atmosphere,
plus the anxiety generated by having troops fighting in Syria and
Ukraine has scared away a lot of foreign investors and many Russian
ones as well. Russia can downplay this in the state controlled media
but without all that foreign and Russian capital the economy cannot
grow. Meanwhile China, the only real threat to Russia, quietly makes
progress in the east. There China has claims on much of the Russian
Far East and is openly replacing Russia as the primary economic,
military and political force in Central Asia.

Non-News And The Thought Police

Since the late 1990s the government has gradually returned the Cold
War practices of declaring all bad news a state secret, especially if
it involves the military or security services. But now there is the
Internet and the government has not been able to suppress the rumors
from spreading and, worse, being compiled, analyzed and revealing a
pretty accurate picture of what is really going on. Corruption is
again becoming a major problem in the military, just as it was before
Vladimir Putin and his KGB whiz kids got elected with the promise to
fix things. The fixes worked for a while but now they are
failing. Again there are reports of bases having their heat and power
cut off because someone stole the money to pay for that. Worse, more
troops are reporting food shortages on bases and the old-timers
remember that was common in the 1990s. Troops also report that many of
the new weapons, especially ships, are accepted into service even
though they have numerous deficiencies. Someone got paid off and the
users are not happy that they may have to pay, with their lives, using
defective ships and aircraft or weapons that malfunction with a
bang. Reporting any of this openly gets you arrested for treason,
thanks to new laws. The government knows all about these bad attitude
problems, in part because in 2013 Russia brought back the old
communist era ideological training for troops and increased use of
informants and opinion surveys to monitor morale and loyalty in the
military. In effect government has returned to using the communist era
"Zampolit" (political officer.) In Soviet times, every unit commander
had a deputy (Zampolit) who represented the communist party and could
veto any of the commanders’ decisions. The Zampolit was responsible
for troop loyalty and political correctness. Sort of a communist
chaplain. In 2010 the Russian Army reintroduced chaplains, something
that the communists did away with in the 1920s. The new chaplains are,
however, expected to report on the loyalty of the troops, to church
and state. Now additional officers are being added to handle
ideological training and monitoring morale. Not exactly the return of
the Zampolit, but a return of most of the Zampolits’ duties. Like
their Cold War era counterparts the Zampolits proved better at
reporting the bad news than dealing with it.

China

Big news in Russia recently were revelations that China had moved some
of their ICBMs to the Russian border. The state controlled Russia
media insisted there was nothing to worry about because these missiles
were obviously meant to evade American ballistic missile defense
systems and, besides, the minimum range for those DF-41 missiles is
3,000 kilometers, which means they could not be used against targets
in the Russian Far East. More astute Russians observed that China
could not win a nuclear exchange with the U.S. but could against
Russia. And China would not want to nuke the Far East, they want to
take control and fill the place with Chinese. Those DF-41s are well
placed to blast Russian nukes and ICBMs far to the west. For many
Russians China is seen as the only real threat to Russia and any
Chinese move out there is nervously discussed in the Russian media (to
calm people down) and privately (to discuss what is really happening
on the Pacific coast).

China has ancient claims on much of the Russian Far East and is openly
replacing Russia as the primary economic, military and political force
in Central Asia. This is made worse by the post-Cold War decline of
the Russian economy. In 1991 the U.S. and EU (European Union) had over
half the world GDP. The Soviet Union had about ten percent and China
two percent. The Soviet Union and its economy was falling apart (hence
the dissolution of the Soviet Union) and had been for decades. By the
end of the 1990s Russia (now with half the population of the Soviet
Union) had three percent of world GDP, China seven percent, the EU 24
percent and the U.S. 21 percent. China began growing at ten percent a
year in the 1980s and kept going. China was still ruled by communists
but had made the bold decision to allow and sustain a free market
economy. The compounded growth really adds up if you can sustain it
over several decades, which China did. By 2015 China was 17 percent of
world GDP, Russia three percent, the EU 17 percent and the U.S. 16
percent. Projections for 2020, even taking into account showed down
Chinese growth, have China with 19 percent of world GDP, Russia three
percent, the EU 15 percent and the U.S. 15 percent. One important
factor in the Chinese GDP growth was the fact that China has more
people than the EU, the U.S. and Russia combined.

Since 2012 China increased spending on infrastructure in border areas
of the Russian Far East (areas near the Pacific Ocean) to make it
easier for Chinese businessmen to operate. This supports the rapid
growth of Chinese trade in the thinly populated Far East and stirs (or
confirms) Russian fears that Chinese businesses will take over the
economy out there. The Chinese have done this before, over the
centuries, with other neighbors. Chinese today are well aware of that
and know that once you control the economy it’s a lot easier to annex
the area to China. Meanwhile Russia continues to have problems getting
Russians to move to the Far East and stay there. Communist and czarist
governments also had this problem and the inability to solve it makes
it easier for the Chinese to take over.

Another aspects of this is China is backing Russia over the Ukraine
matter. Makes sense, as China is also an empire trying to reclaim lost
territories. That some of those territories are currently Russia’s Far
East although these claims are not officially discussed in Russia or
China. That is a problem for another day and currently Russia and
China support each other’s imperial ambitions (as in Ukraine and the
South China Sea) and help each other out to deal with any associated
problems, especially the UN or economic sanctions.

Syria

With Aleppo back in hands of the Assads the war is going in two
directions. The Assad government, backed by Iran, Russia and Turkey
are concentrating on clearing remaining rebels out of the
northwest. That means Hama, Latakia and Idlib provinces, the areas
where the Assads always had the most support. Turkey is intent on
getting any anti-Turk (pro-PKK) Syrian Kurds out of there as
well. Idlib province, west of Aleppo and bordering Turkey, is the main
target and is now receiving most of the Russian airstrikes. There are
still lots of rebels (few of them ISIL) west of Aleppo. Meanwhile the
Kurds, Iraq, the West and the Gulf Arab states want to eliminate the
ISIL presence in Iraq and eastern Syria (namely Raqqa). Russia sees
all this as an opportunity to get start negotiations on a long-term
peace deal. In part this is motivated by the Russian realization that
its alliance with Turkey and Iran is not normal for any of the nations
involved and not likely to last. There have been signs.

Many Turks have demonstrated against and criticized Turkish
cooperation with Iran, Russia and the Assad government of Syria. All
three of these groups have long been seen as enemies of Turkey. In
early January Turkey threatened to withdraw from the temporary
alliance with Russia and Iran in Syria. Turkey was angry at Iran for
tolerating repeated violations of the recent ceasefire deal by Iranian
mercenaries (mainly Hezbollah) in Syria. The Turkish government
justifies the alliance with Iran and Russia in Syria by referring to
increased cooperation with Russia and Iran since the 1990s. But in
Syria the Turks have to deal with the fact that Iran is run by a
religious dictatorship and Turkey and Russia are not. Iran justifies
breaking agreements by blaming it on the many religious fanatics in
its government and military. Russia is willing to ignore that sort of
thing, Turkey isn’t. At same time a growing number of Iranians openly
demonstrate against the alliance with Russia. For decades Russia was
depicted (by Iranian media, governments and personal experience) as a
dangerous enemy of Iran. Russia and Iran also openly disagree over
some key items. Russia openly supports Israel’s efforts to defend
itself from Hezbollah or Iranian missile attacks. Russia is also
willing to have the Americans join in the effort to craft a peace deal
at the conference going on now in Kazakhstan. Iran insisted that the
Americans not show and the new U.S. government was OK with that.

The unusual alliance of Iran, Turkey and Russia is seen by all three
countries as historically unnatural and unsustainable. Iran has long
been fighting the Russians and Turks over who had the most power,
control and influence in the areas where they were neighbors. Each of
the three still have fundamental differences with the other two and
popular opinion in all three nations shows widespread distrust of
these “unnatural” allies. But most Iranians also remember that many
times in the past Iran has made such unstable alliances work, for a
while at least.

Ukraine

Ukraine is recovering from the economic damage suffered because of the
war with Russia and is coming to realize that the biggest problems
Ukraine is facing are internal. Yet despite the continued widespread
corruption in 2016 Ukrainian GDP grew 1.5 percent and is expected to
be three percent in 2017. In contrast 2015 GDP declined 10
percent. But the corruption is still in play and most obvious when it
comes to the growing defense budget. The U.S. is not happy with all
the continued plundering of the Ukrainian defense budget and threatens
to cut support unless the Ukrainian officials stop the stealing and
cooperate with each other for the common good.

Recent opinion polls show that the majority of Ukrainians would now
vote to join NATO and move closer to the less corrupt and more
prosperous West. For the last decade Russia has threated to declare
war if Ukraine joined NATO. Because of this by 2009 the U.S. lost its
enthusiasm for letting Ukraine join NATO, thus leaving Ukraine on its
own to deal with Russian aggression. That led to a popular uprising in
2014 that ousted a pro-Russian (and very corrupt) president of Ukraine
and triggered an undeclared Russian war against Ukraine.

In eastern Ukraine (Donbas) the latest indefinite ceasefire, which
began in late December ended after a few days as the number of
unprovoked attacks by the Russian backed rebels keeps
increasing. Despite that Russia says it is withdrawing forces from in
and around Donbas. This is interesting because Russia is also
withdrawing forces from Syria. Yet the permanent Russian increase of
its bases near the Ukrainian border and near East Europe continues.

January 24, 2017: Russia sent six Tu-22M3 bombers, escorted by four
Su-30SMs, from an airbase in the Caucasus to hit ISIL (Islamic State
in Iraq and the Levant) targets in eastern Syria. Russia has been
working its Tu-22M3M long-range bombers hard over Syria since
mid-2016, flying several dozen sorties from Russian bases to hit
targets in Syria. That’s a lot of work for the ten or so Tu-22M3Ms in
service that have to fly all the way from southern Russia to Syria and
back to deliver a few tons of bombs. While smart bombs were used in
some of the 2016 missions the recent attacks involved unguided (dumb)
bombs. But the Tu-22M3M proved to be effective during its first
sustained combat experience since Afghanistan in the 1980s.

January 23, 2017: The pro-Assad coalition of Russia, Turkey, Iran and
the Assad government held peace talks with the Syrian rebels beginning
today in the Central Asian city of Astana (the capital of
Kazakhstan). Nothing was achieved after two days but the major powers
congratulated each other for getting this far. The U.S. was not
invited when these talks were announced in December but Russia later
asked that someone from the new (after January 20th) U.S. government
attend. In the end the U.S. declined to send anyone. Most of the
rebels were not invited either. Only the FSA rebel coalition was,
because it does not support Islamic terrorism. Three rebel larger
groups (Ahrar al Sham, Fatah al Sham Front and the Kurds) were not
invited, nor was ISIL, the group everyone hates. At the end of 2016
discussions between Russia, Turkey, Iran and the Assad government
apparently agreed to some general terms for such a deal. It would
consist of a ceasefire with groups now in control of parts of Syria
recognized as the temporary ruler of those areas. If the ceasefire
held, there would be new elections. The Assads would not participate,
but only if they were granted immunity to prosecution so the Assads
could go into comfortable exile. All this assumes that ISIL control of
any territory in Syria is eliminated. This is an old proposal, but it
always depended on ISIL not being part of the mix. That is now a
possibility that still doesn’t have enough support within Syria to
work. So far it looks like the Astana talks will produce nothing of
value.

January 19, 2017: In Ukraine police seized several crates marked
“aircraft parts” headed for Iran via air freight. On closer inspection
the aircraft parts turned out to be components for older Russian ATGMs
(anti-tank guided missiles). Iran needs these parts to keep many of
their older weapons operational. Iran is still subject to many
restrictions on the importation of weapons. Ukraine used to be a good
source of such forbidden spare parts but since Russia began trying to
annex portions of Ukraine in 2014 (with some success) Ukraine has been
more dependent on Western support. In return they are supposed to
abide by the many arms export sanctions they used to ignore.

January 16, 2017: In the south (Chechnya) police carried out a series
of raids against an ISIL network and arrested 60 ISIL members and key
supporters. There was some armed opposition and four Islamic
terrorists were killed.

January 14, 2017: In Yemen captured rebel commanders admit (some say
boast) that Hezbollah and Iranian personnel run military training
camps in the north (Saada province) where the Shia rebel tribes have
their ancient homeland. Despite overwhelming evidence of Iranian
weapons being supplied to the Shia rebels the Russian and Chinese
support in the UN blocks any international action against Iran.

January 13, 2017: In Syria the government accused Israel of firing
missiles from northern Israel at the Mezzah airbase outside
Damascus. The explosions were heard in the city and a large fire broke
out. Israel refused to comment but local reports indicate that the
target was recently delivered (by air) long range, satellite guided
Iranian missiles. Several days later Russia broadcast a statement
approving of the Israeli action, pointing out that these missiles are
an obvious threat to Israel and are meant for no one else.

January 11, 2017: The Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov and its
escorts arrived off the coast of eastern Libya. The carrier sent a
helicopter to nearby Tobruk and picked up Khalifa Hiftar and two other
senior officers (all in uniform) and took them to the carrier. The
visit to the Kuznetsov was captured on video and broadcast. The video
showed the event treated as an official visit with sailors in dress
uniforms lined up and a band playing the Libyan national
anthem. Hiftar was given a tour of the ship and then held a video
conference (not shown) with the Russian defense minister back in
Moscow. Hiftar has been trying to get Russia to defy the UN arms
embargo and provide pro-Hiftar forces with weapons. Apparently this
“official visit” signaled that Russia was willing to deal and later
reports from Libya indicated that Russia will now supply the Hiftar
forces with over a billion dollars’ worth of weapons. Hiftar is the
head of the armed forces for one of the two rival governments Hiftar
is the most powerful man in eastern Libya. He has cultivated contacts
in Russia, which believes Hiftar is someone who will still wield power
when peace returns to Libya and will be able to help Russia to once
more become the major arms supplier to Libya. Hiftar made two trips to
Moscow in 2016. (June and November). Hiftar visits Egypt regularly and
visited Russia in late June 2016. Hiftar has managed to keep Egypt, a
few other Arab states and Russia providing support. Egypt allows
banned goods (like weapons and ammo) cross the border
unhindered. Russia is known to have printed new currency for HoR
earlier in 2016 and has provided unspecified military support. Russia
also provides HoR with some support inside the UN as one of the few
countries that can veto proposed UN resolutions. Hiftar has recently
visited Egypt and Jordan. Egypt is particularly important because it
is again run by a former general and feels Libya needs the same kind
of leader. But Egypt is under a lot of pressure from the UN to get
behind the GNA, which Egypt sees as too cozy with Islamic conservative
groups. Algeria feels the same way as do many Tunisians.

January 6, 2017: Russia announced it was reducing its military forces
in Syria. By exactly how much is unclear. The Russian aircraft carrier
task force off the coast departed for its home base in northern
Russia. A dozen (or more) Russian warplanes are heading back to
Russia. It is unclear how many (if any) Russian ground troops are
leaving. The Russian air operations in Syria are expensive (in terms
of spare parts and missiles and smart bombs). While it’s great for
these new warplanes and their weapons to get some combat experience,
Russia is still experiencing severe budget problems at home and still
has to deal with their effort to seize eastern Ukraine.

Israel released spy satellite photos taken on December 28 that showed
two Russian Iskander (also known as SS-26 and 9M723K1) ballistic
missile launcher vehicles in Syria (at the base Russia shares with
Syria). These are probably in Syria to be “tested in combat” by firing
a non-nuclear warhead at a high profile target, like the ISIL capital
of Raqqa. Iskander has a 500 kilometer range and is not a traditional
ballistic missile. That is, it does not fire straight up, leave the
atmosphere, then come back down, following a ballistic
trajectory. Instead, Iskander stays in the atmosphere and follows a
rather flat trajectory. It is capable of evasive maneuvers and
deploying decoys. This makes it more difficult for anti-missile
systems to take it down. Iskander began development near the end of
the Cold War and the first successful launch took place in 1996. The
4.6 ton Iskander M has a solid fuel rocket motor and a range of up to
700 kilometers normally carries a 710 kg (1,500 pound) warhead. The
missile can be stored for up to ten years. Russia developed several
different types of warheads, mainly for, including cluster munitions,
thermobaric (fuel-air explosive) and electro-magnetic pulse
(anti-radar, and destructive to electronics in general.) There is also
a nuclear warhead, which is not exported. Guidance is very accurate,
using GPS, plus infrared homing for terminal guidance. The warhead
will land within 10 meters (31 feet) of the aim point. Iskanders are
carried in a 40 ton 8x8 truck, which also provides a launch
platform. There is an optional reload truck that carries two
missiles. Russia ended up only producing the Iskander-M for its own
military. Entering service in 2005, Russia found there were no export
customers for the innovative and expensive Iskander but free publicity
from actual use in Syria might change that.

January 4, 2017: As expected 2016 was the first year where China
launched more orbital missions (22) than Russia (17). The U.S. was
tied with China for the first time with 22 launches. Since 2004 Russia
has launched the most orbital missions but Russia has been having
personnel and equipment problems keeping up. In 2015 Russia was first
with 26 and in 2014 it was 32.

December 30, 2016: In Syria The pro-Assad coalition of Russia, Turkey,
Iran and the Assad government agreed that peace talks with the Syrian
rebels could be held in Central Asia (the capital of Kazakhstan).