02-04-2017, 02:15 PM
John,
This is absurd. I am not baiting you in order to have fun at your expense, I am soliciting a conversation because I like talking about things like this and living in a strange city and working as a programmer at a travel agency does not give me a lot of opportunities to do so in RL. I genuinely disagree that the pressures to which you refer will be an issue IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. Later in the 21st century, with increasing resource scarcity and a warming climate? Entirely possible, as I have said previously.
Let's take this Chinese-Immigration-to-the-Russian-Far-East thing. We have had this conversation previously, and I remember you linking to this article, written in 2000 and referencing an Alexander Shaikin, who claimed that a million and a half Chinese had flooded over the border in the last year, and that the Chinese would come to dominate the region demographically within the next 20-30 years. It is now 2017, so let's evaluate the claim. Here is an article in The Diplomat, written a year ago. It specifically references his claim, and compares it to census information, interviews with locals, and the like. The author basically comes to the same conclusion I did, which is that while there is a demographic imbalance, there is little pushing/pulling the Chinese in that direction, and that while it is likely to be an issue in the long run, it is not presently. This goes to my point that in terms of their geopolitical aspirations, China and Russia's are complementary RIGHT NOW, and that if there is going to be an alliance of convenience formed in the next few years, it is going to be between Russia and China rather than between either of them and the US. We can see evidence of this with the formation of the SCO, Chinese support of Russian actions in the Ukraine, Russian sales of advanced weaponry to the Chinese, and regularly scheduled joint military exercises between the two of them.
Like I said, if there were a particularly hankering in the Chinese government for resettling Han settlers (which is something that they do do, as one can see in Tibet and Xinjiang) in a cold and inhospitable place to which they had prior claims, you’d probably see it in Mongolia first. Outer Mongolia had been within the Chinese orbit for centuries, had been incorporated into the Qing dynasty, and didn’t split off into its own country again until the early 20th century. I was in Northern China over winter break 2014-2015. I actually rode the bus up from Beijing to Zamin Ude, the major border crossing between China and Mongolia (and the only one open to people like me). Do you know what I saw on the ride up, the border crossing through, and in Ulanbaator (not a place I would recommend visiting in January, BTW)? Hordes of Chinese settlers? No, I saw Mongolian migrant laborers traveling to China for work, or heading back to Mongolia to visit family. So why would China try and seize Russian land from a nuclear power while tensions with the US are what they are, and not bother to seize an equally mineral-rich and population poor place to which they have prior claim whose army is negligible and whose WMDs are nonexistent?
Don't believe the border-dispute resolution? They signed an initial resolution in 1991, subject to haggling, agreed on control of various islands in the Amur River by 2004, with the official transfer occurring in 2008. There are presently no outstanding issues between the two governments on the subject. No official statements of irredentism. So where is the war going to come from?
As for the idea that an Indo-Pakistani war would draw in the two of them on either side? Where's the evidence? The Russians remained neutral when India and China went to war back in the 1960s, when Russian-Chinese tensions were high enough to lead to actual border clashes. The Russians are holding military drills with Pakistan, and increasing weapons sales to offset India's rapprochement with United States. Where was Chinese military support for Pakistan during Indo-Pakistani war in 1971?
This is absurd. I am not baiting you in order to have fun at your expense, I am soliciting a conversation because I like talking about things like this and living in a strange city and working as a programmer at a travel agency does not give me a lot of opportunities to do so in RL. I genuinely disagree that the pressures to which you refer will be an issue IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. Later in the 21st century, with increasing resource scarcity and a warming climate? Entirely possible, as I have said previously.
Let's take this Chinese-Immigration-to-the-Russian-Far-East thing. We have had this conversation previously, and I remember you linking to this article, written in 2000 and referencing an Alexander Shaikin, who claimed that a million and a half Chinese had flooded over the border in the last year, and that the Chinese would come to dominate the region demographically within the next 20-30 years. It is now 2017, so let's evaluate the claim. Here is an article in The Diplomat, written a year ago. It specifically references his claim, and compares it to census information, interviews with locals, and the like. The author basically comes to the same conclusion I did, which is that while there is a demographic imbalance, there is little pushing/pulling the Chinese in that direction, and that while it is likely to be an issue in the long run, it is not presently. This goes to my point that in terms of their geopolitical aspirations, China and Russia's are complementary RIGHT NOW, and that if there is going to be an alliance of convenience formed in the next few years, it is going to be between Russia and China rather than between either of them and the US. We can see evidence of this with the formation of the SCO, Chinese support of Russian actions in the Ukraine, Russian sales of advanced weaponry to the Chinese, and regularly scheduled joint military exercises between the two of them.
Like I said, if there were a particularly hankering in the Chinese government for resettling Han settlers (which is something that they do do, as one can see in Tibet and Xinjiang) in a cold and inhospitable place to which they had prior claims, you’d probably see it in Mongolia first. Outer Mongolia had been within the Chinese orbit for centuries, had been incorporated into the Qing dynasty, and didn’t split off into its own country again until the early 20th century. I was in Northern China over winter break 2014-2015. I actually rode the bus up from Beijing to Zamin Ude, the major border crossing between China and Mongolia (and the only one open to people like me). Do you know what I saw on the ride up, the border crossing through, and in Ulanbaator (not a place I would recommend visiting in January, BTW)? Hordes of Chinese settlers? No, I saw Mongolian migrant laborers traveling to China for work, or heading back to Mongolia to visit family. So why would China try and seize Russian land from a nuclear power while tensions with the US are what they are, and not bother to seize an equally mineral-rich and population poor place to which they have prior claim whose army is negligible and whose WMDs are nonexistent?
Don't believe the border-dispute resolution? They signed an initial resolution in 1991, subject to haggling, agreed on control of various islands in the Amur River by 2004, with the official transfer occurring in 2008. There are presently no outstanding issues between the two governments on the subject. No official statements of irredentism. So where is the war going to come from?
As for the idea that an Indo-Pakistani war would draw in the two of them on either side? Where's the evidence? The Russians remained neutral when India and China went to war back in the 1960s, when Russian-Chinese tensions were high enough to lead to actual border clashes. The Russians are holding military drills with Pakistan, and increasing weapons sales to offset India's rapprochement with United States. Where was Chinese military support for Pakistan during Indo-Pakistani war in 1971?
