Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-04-2017, 02:15 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: > This is absurd. I am not baiting you in order to have fun at your
> expense, I am soliciting a conversation because I like talking
> about things like this and living in a strange city and working as
> a programmer at a travel agency does not give me a lot of
> opportunities to do so in RL. I genuinely disagree that the
> pressures to which you refer will be an issue IN THE IMMEDIATE
> FUTURE. Later in the 21st century, with increasing resource
> scarcity and a warming climate? Entirely possible, as I have said
> previously.

OK, I'll concede that I misunderstood what you were saying, and I
apologize for doing so.

But there's still something very wrong if you and I view the same
subjects so differently.

Let's start with the 1991 border agreement, since that's the most
obvious problem. What possible relevance could an old Unraveling-era
agreement have to today's world? France and Germany signed a border
agreement at Versailles in 1919, but they still went to war 20 years
later.

Some of the things you mention are really laughable. Of course China
supports Russia's invasion of Ukraine -- it's doing the same thing in
the South China Sea.

Using your reasoning, I can prove that WW II never occurred. England
and Germany had a "peace in our time" agreement, so of course they
were never at war. Russia and Germany had the Molotov–Ribbentrop
agreement, so of course Germany never invaded Russia. The North and
the South were happily debating laws in the Congress of the United
States, so of course the South never attacked Fort Sumter. The Hutus
and the Tutsis had signed several peace agreements, so of course there
was no mass slaughter when someone broadcast, "Cut down the tall
trees."

When I was growing up in the 1950s, I heard the same thing over and
over again from everyone -- parents, teachers, friends, etc. -- that
everyone had been completely surprised by Hitler and the war. No one
had ever suspected what Hitler would do, I was often told.

In fact, one person famously did see what was coming - Churchill. He
noticed that the Germans were building a large air force whose only
logical purpose was to bomb Britain. But that was ignored, as was the
invasion of Czechoslovakia.

So I read your list of political agreements and your claims that these
prove that no one is planning war with utter astonishment. If China
were planning war with Russia and America, it would still sign all
those agreements, just as Hitler signed the "peace in our time"
agreement on the same day he and Mussolini were planning war.

If China were NOT planning war, it would have no use for the thousands
of missiles targeting the US and Russia, or for those new missiles on
Russia's border, and China would not be confiscating other people's
fishing grounds and building military bases in the South China Sea.

As you may know, I compare myself to the mythical Cassandra, the
Biblical Jeramiah, and Winston Churchill himself, all of whom were
willing to see what was obviously coming, but were treated like dirt,
hated and ridiculed and even assaulted for saying so.

And now what's really hilarious is the situation where Steve Bannon,
who is Trump's chief strategist, is a friend of mine and an expert on
Generational Dynamics, and as I pointed out, Trump's inauguration
speech reflected the Generational Dynamics view of the world.

But the hilarious part is that the mainstream media is suddenly
discovering the Fourth Turning, and David Kaiser and Neil Howe, who
are both on the far left and therefore hate Trump, are disavowing the
whole FT theory. Oh no, Trump's all wrong, they're now saying in the
Time article. Both Howe and Kaiser really despise me and GD. This is
an example of my own initial naïveté. Back 12-13 years ago, I naïvely
thought that Howe and Strauss and Kaiser would actually welcome my
contributions to the fourth turning theory. Haha. I'm like dirt to
them, but I'm in good company anyway.

So getting back to the current subject, believe what you want. If you
think WW II never happened, then you're welcome to that belief. If
you think that WW III won't happen, then you're welcome to that
belief too. My only point is that the reasons you give for having that
belief are completely irrelevant.