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Generational Dynamics World View
(02-04-2017, 06:37 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Apology accepted, and sorry if I appeared to be baiting you.  Not my intention at all.

Also, you actually know Steve Bannon?  That's pretty cool.

As for the rest of it, let's see:

- So, no mention of the complete absence of evidence for hordes of Chinese people pouring into the Russian Far East.  So, are you abandoning this claim?  Refusing to discuss it?

- The bit about WWII is a little odd.  The proof that WWII happened is that it... actually happened.  Lots of evidence (bombed buildings, mass death, people's memories, documents from the time, etc.) for it.  If your argument is instead that by my reasoning WWII could not have happened because of Munich, the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, etc.  Ok, does this mean any peace treaty or border adjustment signed is ipso facto evidence that the parties are going to try and kill each other shortly after.  I mean, the French and Germans had fought a war only 20 years before, the French sent troops into the Ruhr in 1923, Hitler had been fairly clear about his long term goals and obsessions in Mein Kampf, France had been actively trying to form alliances like the Stresa Front in order to counterbalance  Germany all through the 30s, there was a state of war between Germany and France after the invasion of Poland for almost a year before the attacks on France and Low Countries...  Once again, it didn't just come out of a clear sky.  Where is the equivalent between Russia and China?  There are tensions between the US and Russia, China, and Iran, between Israel and its neighbors, between Pakistan and India (with shots fired), but Russia and China?  I don't see any, and I think and have thought for a number of years that WWIII (for some value of the same) is a real possibility, so I've been looking.  If you have some information to that effect, I'd love to see it.  Really, I would.

- As for the Indo-Pakistani thing inevitably drawing the Chinese and Russians on opposite sides, where's the evidence that they would intervene (to the point of nuking each other, no less)?  Where are the mutual defense treaties between the two?  Prior evidence of interventions?  It seems like a bit of a leap.

I think this is coming to it from the wrong direction.

There's a crisis to be resolved soon.  All crises discussed in Generations end in total wars.  I've never understood how the Great Depression could be seen as the culmination of the last crisis period, and apparently neither could John, nor Bannon, by all accounts.

If you come at things from that perspective - there's going to be a total war, the only question is who will be fighting whom - then the salient issue when a conflict is settled before the crisis war is that there was a conflict which could flare up again and precipitate the crisis war, not that there was a settlement.

Personally, I'm pretty convinced about Pakistan and India being on opposite sides.  China and India are at least unlikely to be on the same side, though they might not end up fighting; in particular, I think China is a good candidate for a civil war.  Iran and India will end up on the same side on the "enemy of my enemy" theory; same for Pakistan and Arabia once Iran joins.

I don't see Russia, or Europe, or especially the US, as obvious with regard to sides.  John may be picking the most likely sides, but once you line up all the probabilistic effects, even the most likely sides are likely less than even odds.  There are a lot of possible combinations.
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - by Warren Dew - 02-04-2017, 10:12 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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