Generational Dynamics World View

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(02-08-2017, 09:08 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 9-Feb-17 World View -- Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning, and Donald Trump

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China-Philippines détente unravels over Scarborough Shoal
  
• Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning, and Donald Trump
  

****
**** China-Philippines détente unravels over Scarborough Shoal
****


China's now-famous 'nine-dash line' illegally claims sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, including territories belonging to other nations (Reuters)

When Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte announced last October that
he was throwing the US military out of the Philippines and would be
turning to China instead, I wrote that this flip-flop could not last
for long, because the Philippine people had an overwhelmingly
favorable view of the U.S., and a far less favorable view of China.
It's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a
dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by
generations of people.  The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant,
except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people.

Last October, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said that
the country would not allow the US military to use its base in the
Philippines even for its freedom of navigation patrols in the South
China Sea.  Since then, Duterte has already been forced to backtrack
on his threat to throw the US military out.

Now Duterte's own ministers are expressing alarm that China may be
building a new military base on Scarborough Shoal, which has been a
fishing ground for Philippine fishermen for centuries.

Now the very same Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana is now
saying that China should not be permitted to build military
facilities on Scarborough Shoal because, in combination with China's
other illegal military bases, this would give China complete military
control of the entire South China Sea:

>        [indent]<QUOTE>"They encroached.  They occupied three islands [in the
>        Spratlys] plus they are trying to get Scarborough. So to us that
>        is unacceptable.
>    
>        If we allow them, they will build. That’s very, very disturbing.
>        Very much [more] disturbing than Fiery Cross because this is so
>        close to us. ...
>    
>        "The Americans, that’s their red line. Red line meaning you can’t
>        do that there, so they [China] did not do it.
>    
>        If we had a strong military presence [in the South China Sea], we
>        can stop them [China] but we don’t. I am still hoping in the
>        future some reasonable guy there in Beijing will come to see the
>        light that this is ours.  That is shooting for the moon but who
>        knows?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The "red line" refers to a warning that President Barack Obama gave to
China's President Xi Jinping last year against building an artificial
island at Scarborough Shoal.  A Chinese military base on Scarborough
Shoal would put Chinese fighter jets and missiles within easy striking
distance of US forces that are stationed in the Philippines, as well
as the Philippines' own forces.  The shoal also commands the northeast
exit of the sea, so a Chinese military outpost there could stop other
countries' navies from traveling through the South China Sea.

Early last month, during his confirmation hearing for Secretary of
State, Rex Tillerson said that China's artificial islands and military
bases in the South China Sea were an "illegal" activity and added:

>        [indent]<QUOTE>"We're going to have to send China a clear signal that
>        first, the island-building stops and second, your access to those
>        islands also is not going to be allowed."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Chinese media have responded that the US cannot implement this threat
without waging a large-scale war.  On Wednesday, China's foreign
ministry promised Peace In Our Time: "We are absolutely not interested
in conflicts with other countries and call for maintaining peace and
stability in the South China Sea as this is in the interests of all
states."  International Business Times and AFP and Tass (Moscow)

Related Articles

• Tensions rise between China and Trump administration (07-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Philippines to reject US use of its bases for South China Sea patrols (09-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China (23-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning, and Donald Trump
****

Needless to say, I'm fascinated by the sudden interest by the
mainstream media in Steve Bannon and The Fourth Turning.  An article
last week about Steve Bannon in Time mentioned the Fourth Turning.

A more important article came out this week in the form of an
analytical article by Linette Lopez in Business Insider.
Unfortunately, she has no idea what she's talking about, and knows
absolutely nothing about generational theory, although she thinks she
does.

Her thesis is that Steve Bannon wants to use this theory to bring
about a world war.  That's crazy.  What generational theory does is
predict that a world war is coming, whether we like it or not, and
tells us to prepare for it.

The Fourth Turning was the foundational work for generational theory.
It was a brilliant work when it was written by Neil Howe and William
Strauss in the early 1990s, but they applied it only to English and
American history since the 1400s, and today their work is badly out of
date.

In 2003 I took over further development of generational theory,
corrected a number of the early errors, and expanded it to all
countries and places at all times in history.  I launched the website
http://GenerationalDynamics.com, which has been a platform
of continuing development of generational theory.  There are now
almost 4,000 articles on the website containing hundreds of analyses
and predictions, all of which have come true or are trending true.
None has been proven wrong.  No web site, analyst, journalist, or
politician has come even close to the analytical and forecasting
success of GenerationalDynamics.com.  It's a truly historic
development.

It's true that generational theory predicts a new world war.  But it
makes no difference whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton had won
the presidential election, because no politician can either cause or
prevent a world war.

However, to use an analogy, if your boat is sailing through a storm,
then the boat captain can neither cause nor prevent a storm, but if a
storm is coming, then one captain may do a better job than another in
guiding the boat through the storm.  The crazy thing would be for the
boat captain to know that a storm is coming, but ignore it completely,
and make no preparations whatsoever.

My personal belief is that America will be best guided through the
coming storm by a president who has the benefit of an understanding of
Generational Dynamics, because that's the only methodology that
describes what's actually going on in the world.

So the reason that Linette Lopez is completely wrong is that she has
no understanding whatsoever of generational theory.  She has no clue.
Lopez would tell a boat captain not to prepare for a storm, even if
the weather forecast says that a storm is coming.  She thinks we
should just all be Pollyannas and pretend that nothing bad will ever
happen.  Linette Lopez is recommending the path to total disaster.

Ironically, Neil Howe himself has almost completely abandoned his own
Fourth Turning theory by supporting views similar to those of Linette
Lopez.  This is explained by the fact that Howe supports Democrats,
and so is committed to opposing anything from Donald Trump, even when
it's his own Fourth Turning theory.  This is just one more of the
bizarre twists that are common in today's world.

Generational Dynamics says that a world war is coming, and that no
politician can either cause or prevent it.  But what politicians can
do is prepare for it, and that's what we can hope that Steve Bannon
and Donald Trump are doing, to the benefit of all of us.  Business Insider and Time

Related Articles

• How a world war with China would unfold (21-Feb-2014)
  
  
• President Trump's inauguration speech links today's America to the 1930s (21-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Protests grow over Trump's executive order to restrict immigration (29-Jan-2017)
  
  
• No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen (05-Dec-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Scarborough Shoal, China,
Rodrigo Duterte, Delfin Lorenzana, Fiery Cross, South China Sea,
Xi Jinping, Rex Tillerson, Steve Bannon,
the Fourth Turning, Neil Howe, William Strauss, Linette Lopez

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John J. Xenakis
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-- my take on the Lopez article is that Bannon is going to misuse S&H, twist it for his own twisted purposes, so to speak. Much like Goebbles twisted Nostradamus for his twisted purposes. Speaking of which, you stated that even in a dictatorship, decisions are made by masses of ppl. Are you saying that the German people of that time were responsible for WW2 & death camps? Can you explain further plz?