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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 19-Feb-17 World View -- China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal
  • Assassination of Kim Jong-un's half-brother in Malaysia threatens relations with China and North Korea

****
**** China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal
****


[Image: g170218b.jpg]
Kim Jong-nam (L), the assassinated half-brother of Kim Jong-un ® (AP)

Two events in the last week -- North Korea's test of a long-range
ballistic missile and the assassination, possibly by North Korean
agents, of Kim Jong-nam, the half-brother of president Kim Jong-un --
have infuriated and embarrassed China's leaders, since they enormously
complicate China's foreign policy.

The ballistic missile test is particularly troubling to China's
leadership for several reasons:
  • It violates UN Security Council resolutions supported by
    China. Furthermore, the missile test threatens the political
    stability of the entire region, and China's leaders object when any
    country other than China threatens the regional stability.

  • The missiles begin tested, while nominally intended for use
    against Japan, South Korea and the United States, could also be used
    against targets in China, if the child dictator Kim Jong-un feels
    threatened in some way by China.

  • China has vigorously objected to the deployment in South Korea of
    the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense
    system, claiming that the defensive missiles are not needed and that
    they in some way threaten China. North Korea's ballistic missile test
    makes the THAAD deployment in South Korea even more
    necessary.

China's announcement on Saturday that it would suspend all coal
shipments from North Korea was a surprise, but not totally unexpected.
On Monday of last week, the day after the ballistic missile test,
China prevented a North Korean ship from unloading a shipment of
16,295 tons coal, worth about US$1 million, at a Chinese port, and
ordered that it be returned to North Korea. However, China blamed the
rejection not on the ballistic missile test, but instead on a claim
that the coal contained higher-than-permissible level of mercury.

China's announcement could have significant economic impact on North
Korea. In order to import foreign goods, North Korea needs foreign
reserves. In order to get foreign reserves, it needs to export goods.
About 90% of North Korea's exports go to China, and most of that is
coal. So this announcement will severely limit the foreign goods that
North Korea can import.

The intent is that by limiting North Korea's ability to import, the
country will be unable to import that equipment required for further
development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. It's not clear
that this objective is realistic, as Kim Jong-un has previously been
willing to allow his people to starve rather than to allow his nuclear
weapons program to starve. No matter what the intent, Kim will let
his people starve and will torture, jail and execute anyone who
objects.

China implemented a partial ban on coal imports from North Korea last
year, but left open a loophole that would allow some coal imports if
they would benefit the North Korean people. The partial ban turned
out to be a joke, because North Korean manipulated the loophole and
actually increased coal imports to China by 12-14% after the partial
ban was announced, which was extremely embarrassing to China.

China criticizes other nations for destabilizing the region, even
though China continually destabilizes the region by confiscating other
countries' territories and building illegal military bases in the
South China Sea, while threatening Japan in the East China Sea. This
entire political strategy is being thrown into chaos by the actions of
North Korea.

China has the ability to bring North Korea to its knees economically,
but both China and Kim Jong-un are well aware that doing so is a very
high-risk strategy. A government coup in Pyongyang, North Korea's
capital city, could bring to power someone that favors peaceful
reunification with South Korea -- something that's quite possible now
that three or four generations have grown up since the end of World
War II and the Korean War. Or an even worse scenario is that a
retaliatory act by Kim Jong-un might be directed at either China or
South Korea (or Japan or the US), and this could lead to a war on the
Korean Peninsula that would draw in the Chinese military and would
result in millions of North Korean refugees pouring into China.

The point is that China is rapidly running out of choices. Allowing
Kim Jong-un to continue ballistic missile and nuclear weapons
development is extremely dangerous to China, but trying to stop that
development with economic sanctions is also extremely dangerous. One
can only speculate what China might try next -- perhaps some sort of
military action or commando raid on North Korean military targets.
But this is just one more area, like the situations in Taiwan and Hong
Kong, where China's leaders are running out of time and they know it,
and may become desperate enough to do something stupid. Yonhap News (Seoul) and BBC and Washington Post

Related Articles

****
**** Assassination of Kim Jong-un's half-brother in Malaysia threatens relations with China and North Korea
****


Police in Malaysia have arrested four suspects believed to be linked
to the assassination on Wednesday Kim Jong-nam, the half-brother of
Kim Jong-un, the president of North Vietnam.

A woman tentatively identified as 28-year-old Doan Thi Huong of
Vietnam has been positively identified as the assassin from CCTV
footage from Kuala Lumpur International Airport. She allegedly
covered Kim Jong-nam's face with a cloth laced with poison, causing
his death within minutes. Before being captured, she changed her
appearance several times. On Wednesday, she was wearing a white shirt
with the large letters "LOL" on the front. A second woman said that
they both thought that the whole thing was a prank sponsored by a
reality TV show.

It has not been proven whether North Korea is responsible for the
assassination, and there are other actors that might have wanted him
dead. Jong-nam was playboy, and one can even imagine that the
assassination might have been launched by a former girlfriend. But
most people believe that Kim Jong-nam was killed under orders of his
half-brother, Kim Jong-un, North Korea's child dictator.

This is not the first execution of a family member. On New Year's Day
2014, Kim Jong-un announced that he had ordered the execution of his
uncle and mentor Jang Song-thaek, calling him "factionalist scum."
According to unconfirmed reports at the time, Kim had his uncle thrown
into a room with several ravenous dogs that hadn't eaten in several
days. So although Kim Jong-nam wasn't eaten by ravenous dogs, the
execution of Jang Song-thaek provides a recent precedent for the
execution of close family members.

Malaysia has always gone out of its way to maintain good relations
with China, but the assassination of Kim Jong-ang in Kuala Lumpur
airport, whether ordered by North Korea or not, is causing a rift in
relations between the two countries.

North Korea demanded the immediate return of the dead body to North
Korea. Malaysia responded that the death occurred on Malaysian soil,
and a full series of autopsies would be performed first. Furthermore,
Malaysia would not return the body to North Korea until a DNA sample
from Kim Jong-un was provided, in order to complete the autopsy.

On Friday, close to midnight, North Korea's ambassador to Malaysia,
Kang Chol, stood in front of the morgue where the body was lying and
gave a hysterical rant:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We strongly urge and demand the Malaysian side not to
> be entangled with a political plot by the hostile forces towards
> the DPRK [North Korea] who want to damage image of our republic.
> And, to release the body immediately. ...
>
> The Malaysian side forced the post-mortem without our permission
> and witnessing. We will categorically reject the result of the
> post-mortem conducted unilaterally excluding our attendance. They
> are colluding with the hostile forces towards us who are desperate
> to harm us of malice."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

It's not clear who the "hostile forces" are, but they're assumed to be
China or South Korea.

On Saturday, Malaysia's Health Minister Datuk Seri Dr S. Subramaniam
responded to the North Korean ambassador:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"North Korea can reject or show disapproval. But we
> are doing things according to our law. Something happened in our
> country. We don't do it according to their law. If murder or
> death (occurs) in our country, there is a process we go
> through. There is no short cut in forensics as far as we are
> concerned. ...
>
> We will release [the autopsy result] once it is ready, and hope to
> release it within this week. We are currently waiting for the
> toxicology report, which is an important test to confirm. Once it
> is done, the results will be given to the police as early as we
> can and it is up to the police to release it. We want to get
> correct results before releasing it."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

It's very easy to get the feeling that both sides are hiding things,
and that there's a lot more to come out.

The assassination of Kim Jong-nam has also further strained relations
between China and North Korea, beyond the amount they were already
strained by the long-range ballistic missile test.

Kim Jong-nam had been exiled from North Korea in 2001 after he was
discovered using a phony passport. He's been living in Macau in China
under Chinese protection. On Wednesday, he was at Kuala Lumpur
airport preparing to fly back to Macau. If North Korea performed the
assassination, it would be a new major humiliation to China.

China's state media Global Times published a story on Wednesday saying
that "It is sincerely hoped that [North Korea] will step up and
provide answers to a world that right now can only patiently wait."
That story also criticized North Korea for using assassination at all:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Regardless of how intense a country's political
> struggle might be, there is no doubt that it should never rely on
> assassination methods as means for its advancement. Human
> civilization is now in the 21st century, and such a savage and
> outdated political device should be cast into the museums of
> history."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

This is an interesting point. Assassination is so old, so savage, so
outdated, so twentieth-century. It's better to use more modern
methods. If China doesn't like someone, they like to use more modern
techniques -- kidnapping, and years of being thrown into a hole and
starved, and receiving daily beatings and torture. For China in the
21st century, that's so much more thoroughly modern and stylish.
AFP and The Star (Malaysia) and Global Times (China)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-nam,
South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur International Airport, Doan Thi Huong,
Jang Song-thaek, Kang Chol, Datuk Seri Dr S. Subramaniam
Macau

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19-Feb-17 World View -- China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal - by John J. Xenakis - 02-18-2017, 11:13 PM
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