02-22-2017, 11:16 PM
*** 23-Feb-17 World View -- China preparing to install long-range missiles in South China Sea
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China preparing to install long-range missiles in South China Sea
****
![[Image: g170222b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170222b.jpg)
Chinese military activity around Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands, May 21, 2015 (US Navy)
China has built artificial islands and military bases, annexing
regions belonging to other countries, all in violation of
international law, and specifically declared illegal by the United
Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague last year,
but that isn't stopping China from continuing its massive illegal and
dangerous military buildup in the South China Sea.
On Wednesday, reports emerged from unnamed US intelligence officials
that China has built on its artificial islands more than twenty
buildings designed to hold long-range surface-to-air missiles. The
buildings are concrete structures with retractable roofs. The
structures appear to be 20 meters (66 feet) long and 10 meters (33
feet) high.
When asked, China's foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang evaded the
issue by saying, "China carrying out normal construction activities on
its own territory, including deploying necessary and appropriate
territorial defense facilities, is a normal right under international
law for sovereign nations."
It's always so depressing to have to write these stories where China
claims protection under international law when it's wildly violating
international law and repeating the acts of the Nazis by annexing
other countries' territories. This could only have led to a world war
then, and it's going to lead to a world war now.
This week, China also announced that it will revise its 1984 Maritime
Safety Law, with the purpose of barring selected foreign ships from
passing through the South China Sea, which China claims. It's
believed that the changes are intended to target the United States.
Foreign ships that enter without approval will be fined
300,000-500,000 yuan ($43,706-72,844) and those violating Chinese laws
will be expelled, presumably by means of military force. "China's
waters are open to foreign ships as long as they do not damage the
waters' safety, order, or China's sovereignty," according to a Chinese
official.
These actions come as an American aircraft-carrier strike group led by
USS Carl Vinson conducting "routine" naval and air operations in the
South China Sea this week similar to activities that have been
performed for years to protect freedom of navigation in the South
China Sea, through which about $5 trillion worth of trade passes each
year. However, China calls these operations a "threat to China."
The two Chinese actions this week -- installing long-range
surface-to-air missiles and planning to military action targeting
foreign ships in the South China Sea -- bring the region and the world
closer to war.
Reuters and VOA and Global Times (Beijing) and Lawfare and Asia Times
****
**** China's ASEAN neighbors express increasing anxiety over China's illegal militarization
****
Chas Freeman, a former assistant secretary of defense, said that
China's apparent installation of long-range surface-to-air missiels is
an "unfortunate, but not (an) unpredictable development," and said
that the purpose of these buildings is not to signal President Trump,
as some journalists are suggesting:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"There is a tendency here in Washington to imagine
> that it's all about us, but we are not a claimant in the South
> China Sea. We are not going to challenge China's possession of
> any of these land features in my judgment. If that's going to
> happen, it's going to be done by the Vietnamese, or ... the
> Filipinos ... or the Malaysians, who are the three
> counter-claimants of note."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Indeed, China's neighbors in ASEAN (the Association of South East
Asian Nations) are increasingly expressing concerns about China's
military activities. Philippines Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto
Yasay Jr. said on Tuesday:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The ASEAN ministers have been unanimous in their
> expression of concern about what they see as the militarization of
> the region. In so far as certain reclamation of certain features
> built on the South China Sea that had been completed, they (ASEAN
> ministers) have noticed, very unsettlingly, that China has
> installed weapons systems in these facilities that they have
> established."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The complaints by the Philippines are particularly telling, because
president Rodrigo R. Duterte last year made a very public spectacle of
"throwing the United States" out of the Philippines, and seeking to
replace the US with China. As it's turned out, Duterte has been
unable to eject the US because of opposition within his own
government, and because of anxiety over China's increasingly hostile
activities in the South China Sea.
The Philippine government is becoming particularly anxious over
Scarborough Shoal, which has been a Philippine fishing ground for
centuries. China has taken military control of the region around
Scarborough Shoal, but has not yet built an artificial island or
military base there, as it has in the Spratly Islands. An attempt by
China to build a military base in that region could generate a strong
nationalist backlash in the Philippines, with unpredictable political
results.
A military base on Scarborough Shoal would effectively sit on the
doorstep of Subic, where US and Philippine forces are based. China
could extend its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
capabilities into the eastern reaches of the South China Sea by
placing an over-the-horizon radar system at Scarborough as it has done
on some of its possessions in the Spratlys. The shoal also commands
the northeast exit of the sea, so a Chinese military outpost there
could stop other countries' navies from traveling through the South
China Sea.
Vietnam is well aware that its military stands little or no chance in
a naval battle versus China, having already lost a naval battle to
China in 1988. Vietnam has been adopting an asymmetric strategy of
sea-denial. This strategy uses missiles and submarines to deny China
access to the same South China Sea regions where China is denying
access to the Vietnamese.
Vietnam has just received a fleet or Russian-build diesel-electric
submarines, equipped for sea denial in the traditional sense with
torpedoes and mines, as well as Russian-made Klub-S sea-launched
land-attack cruise missiles (SLCM) that can hit targets as far away as
three hundred kilometers.
India is in talks with Vietnam to sell them short range surface-to-air
missiles. Nearly half of India's trade passes through the South China
Sea, and its government is taking steps to maintain freedom of
navigation and overflight.
Increasingly, we've been seeing an alliance among several countries --
India, Vietnam, Philippines, Japan, and Russia -- to take steps to
guarantee that the South China Sea remains open to everyone.
The populations of China and all of these countries today are in a
highly emotional, nationalistic state, and this military buildup on
all sides cannot end up in any way but a major war.
Asia One (Singapore) and CNN and The Diplomat (2-Feb) and Reuters and New Indian Express
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Geng Shuang, USS Carl Vinson, Chas Freeman, Perfecto Yasay Jr.,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
Rodrigo R. Duterte, Scarborough Shoal, Vietnam, India
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China preparing to install long-range missiles in South China Sea
- China's ASEAN neighbors express increasing anxiety over China's illegal militarization
****
**** China preparing to install long-range missiles in South China Sea
****
Chinese military activity around Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands, May 21, 2015 (US Navy)
China has built artificial islands and military bases, annexing
regions belonging to other countries, all in violation of
international law, and specifically declared illegal by the United
Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague last year,
but that isn't stopping China from continuing its massive illegal and
dangerous military buildup in the South China Sea.
On Wednesday, reports emerged from unnamed US intelligence officials
that China has built on its artificial islands more than twenty
buildings designed to hold long-range surface-to-air missiles. The
buildings are concrete structures with retractable roofs. The
structures appear to be 20 meters (66 feet) long and 10 meters (33
feet) high.
When asked, China's foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang evaded the
issue by saying, "China carrying out normal construction activities on
its own territory, including deploying necessary and appropriate
territorial defense facilities, is a normal right under international
law for sovereign nations."
It's always so depressing to have to write these stories where China
claims protection under international law when it's wildly violating
international law and repeating the acts of the Nazis by annexing
other countries' territories. This could only have led to a world war
then, and it's going to lead to a world war now.
This week, China also announced that it will revise its 1984 Maritime
Safety Law, with the purpose of barring selected foreign ships from
passing through the South China Sea, which China claims. It's
believed that the changes are intended to target the United States.
Foreign ships that enter without approval will be fined
300,000-500,000 yuan ($43,706-72,844) and those violating Chinese laws
will be expelled, presumably by means of military force. "China's
waters are open to foreign ships as long as they do not damage the
waters' safety, order, or China's sovereignty," according to a Chinese
official.
These actions come as an American aircraft-carrier strike group led by
USS Carl Vinson conducting "routine" naval and air operations in the
South China Sea this week similar to activities that have been
performed for years to protect freedom of navigation in the South
China Sea, through which about $5 trillion worth of trade passes each
year. However, China calls these operations a "threat to China."
The two Chinese actions this week -- installing long-range
surface-to-air missiles and planning to military action targeting
foreign ships in the South China Sea -- bring the region and the world
closer to war.
Reuters and VOA and Global Times (Beijing) and Lawfare and Asia Times
****
**** China's ASEAN neighbors express increasing anxiety over China's illegal militarization
****
Chas Freeman, a former assistant secretary of defense, said that
China's apparent installation of long-range surface-to-air missiels is
an "unfortunate, but not (an) unpredictable development," and said
that the purpose of these buildings is not to signal President Trump,
as some journalists are suggesting:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"There is a tendency here in Washington to imagine
> that it's all about us, but we are not a claimant in the South
> China Sea. We are not going to challenge China's possession of
> any of these land features in my judgment. If that's going to
> happen, it's going to be done by the Vietnamese, or ... the
> Filipinos ... or the Malaysians, who are the three
> counter-claimants of note."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Indeed, China's neighbors in ASEAN (the Association of South East
Asian Nations) are increasingly expressing concerns about China's
military activities. Philippines Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto
Yasay Jr. said on Tuesday:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The ASEAN ministers have been unanimous in their
> expression of concern about what they see as the militarization of
> the region. In so far as certain reclamation of certain features
> built on the South China Sea that had been completed, they (ASEAN
> ministers) have noticed, very unsettlingly, that China has
> installed weapons systems in these facilities that they have
> established."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The complaints by the Philippines are particularly telling, because
president Rodrigo R. Duterte last year made a very public spectacle of
"throwing the United States" out of the Philippines, and seeking to
replace the US with China. As it's turned out, Duterte has been
unable to eject the US because of opposition within his own
government, and because of anxiety over China's increasingly hostile
activities in the South China Sea.
The Philippine government is becoming particularly anxious over
Scarborough Shoal, which has been a Philippine fishing ground for
centuries. China has taken military control of the region around
Scarborough Shoal, but has not yet built an artificial island or
military base there, as it has in the Spratly Islands. An attempt by
China to build a military base in that region could generate a strong
nationalist backlash in the Philippines, with unpredictable political
results.
A military base on Scarborough Shoal would effectively sit on the
doorstep of Subic, where US and Philippine forces are based. China
could extend its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
capabilities into the eastern reaches of the South China Sea by
placing an over-the-horizon radar system at Scarborough as it has done
on some of its possessions in the Spratlys. The shoal also commands
the northeast exit of the sea, so a Chinese military outpost there
could stop other countries' navies from traveling through the South
China Sea.
Vietnam is well aware that its military stands little or no chance in
a naval battle versus China, having already lost a naval battle to
China in 1988. Vietnam has been adopting an asymmetric strategy of
sea-denial. This strategy uses missiles and submarines to deny China
access to the same South China Sea regions where China is denying
access to the Vietnamese.
Vietnam has just received a fleet or Russian-build diesel-electric
submarines, equipped for sea denial in the traditional sense with
torpedoes and mines, as well as Russian-made Klub-S sea-launched
land-attack cruise missiles (SLCM) that can hit targets as far away as
three hundred kilometers.
India is in talks with Vietnam to sell them short range surface-to-air
missiles. Nearly half of India's trade passes through the South China
Sea, and its government is taking steps to maintain freedom of
navigation and overflight.
Increasingly, we've been seeing an alliance among several countries --
India, Vietnam, Philippines, Japan, and Russia -- to take steps to
guarantee that the South China Sea remains open to everyone.
The populations of China and all of these countries today are in a
highly emotional, nationalistic state, and this military buildup on
all sides cannot end up in any way but a major war.
Asia One (Singapore) and CNN and The Diplomat (2-Feb) and Reuters and New Indian Express
Related Articles
- China-Philippines détente unravels over Scarborough Shoal (19-Feb-2017)
- Philippines to reject US use of its bases for South China Sea patrols (09-Dec-2016)
- Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China (23-Oct-2016)
- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Geng Shuang, USS Carl Vinson, Chas Freeman, Perfecto Yasay Jr.,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
Rodrigo R. Duterte, Scarborough Shoal, Vietnam, India
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
