Generational Dynamics World View

[Warren Dew]

(02-25-2017, 11:14 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: It may at some point occur to Russia's president Vladimir Putin
that if he wants the war in Syria to end, then he has to stop
supporting Bashar al-Assad, and allow someone else to replace him.
There's no sign of anything like that yet, especially because
Iran is bitterly opposed to allowing al-Assad to step down,
but Putin at some point may realize that it's the best choice
for Russia.

The sources I read say it has already occurred to him.  His problem is that he can't maintain his Mediterranean port without help from either the US or Iran.  Iran insists on keeping Assad in power.  For this arrangement to work, he has to jettison Iran as his partner in the area in favor of the US.  TASS is already running headlines touting cooperation with the US:

http://tass.com/world/932204

Russia is in a much weaker bargaining position than the US.  Russia cannot maintain its current level of military support forever, and if it drops its support, Sunni factions are likely to overthrow Syria entirely.  The US can, in contrast, maintain current levels of activity indefinitely.

The question is what the US will want in return.  Strictly speaking, US geopolitical imperatives as the global maritime hegemon would dictate that the US would prefer that Russia not have the port.  However, as a political thing, Trump has pledged the defeat of the Islamic State.  One minor Russian port might be a reasonable price to pay for for help that would actually allow him to fulfill his pledge.  That would probably require that Russia accede to large sections of what is now Syria being turned over to Turkish administration, requiring the ouster of Assad in favor of someone willing to govern a rump Syria.  he US would still have to deal with the southeastern third of Syria and the western third of Iraq, but it would no longer be Russia's problem.

So if Russia abandons Iran for cooperation with Turkey and other Sunni states, what does that do to your alignment theory?