02-27-2017, 05:51 PM
(02-27-2017, 04:21 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Except the actual US government hasn't been following my proposed
> foreign policy at any point in the last few decades John X. The
> actual government has for the most part been following ideas
> similar to yours. You neocons were wrong in 2003 and have no real
> credibility in maintaining US National Security given that you
> guys had complete power from 2001 to 2008 and during that time the
> US Nuclear Arsenal was slashed by more than half and heavy weapons
> built to fight a large scale war was replaced by pathetic Bradley
> fighting vehicles. Also I Remember your posts from 10 years ago on
> this subject: you said that China would attack as soon as the 2008
> Beijing Olympics were finished, and I said that there was no
> possibility of war until around 2020 at the earliest. I was right
> then you were wrong back then.
As usual, every time you write what you claim I believe, you end up
writing total gibberish.
First, I'm not a neocon. Neocon is a political ideology, and I have
no political ideology.
Second, I didn't propose any foreign policy in 2003 or any other time.
I almost never propose a policy. The only time in recent memory that
I have was the other day when I said that the border tax was a
dangerous idea.
The only part of the above gibberish that resembles reality is that
ten years ago I thought the attack by China was fairly imminent,
though even then I didn't set any absolute deadlines, certainly not
the Olympics. But if you really predicted 2020 at the time, then that
was a pretty good prediction.
So you're completely wrong about the deadline. I always treated the
timetable for a generational crisis war probabilistically. Instead of
writing gibberish, if you'd like to understand what I actually thought
ten years ago, take a look at the following article:
** Six most dangerous regions in world
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...041120.htm
Go to the end of the article, where I discuss "Probabilistic
Forecasts" and "Probability of a regional crisis war" This was a very
interesting speculative way of predicting a time frame for when the
next crisis war would start, whether by China's hand or some other
way. I even codified as a mathematical formula. I estimated that the
probability of a crisis war in 2005 was 20.89%, and would get a little
higher each year.
In 2006, I began to wonder if the above estimates were too high, and I
noted the fact that instead of moving toward war, the world was in a
kind of equilibrium. That's when I saw the movie "A Beautiful Mind,"
about the mathematician John Nash, and I applied his concepts about
game theory to the geopolitical situation, and wrote this article:
** A beautiful mind? The world is paralyzed into a 'Nash equilibrium'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...17nash.htm
As I read through that article today, for the first time in years,
it seems quite reasonable. In particular with regard to China
and Taiwan, it says the relationship was in an equilibrium,
but that the equilibrium was being undermined by generational changes
-- in particular the rise of a younger generation that favors
independence.
So if you want to understand what I really believed ten years ago,
rather than making up fake news, then read those two articles.
(02-27-2017, 05:15 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Also on several of your posts you've speculated on the causes of
> right-wing and left-wing support for Assad. In these post you
> suggest that a naive ignorance of the fact that Assad is
> massacring thousands of people is the cause. In fact we are well
> aware that Assad has killed thousands in fact he is efficiently
> slaughtering islamists and noncombatant's, maybe even hundreds of
> thousands of civilians. We root for Assad because we don't care
> that he is killing tens of thousands, in fact that is the main
> reason we like him. Because as far as we are concerned the people
> Assad is killing are people who "needed killin" because otherwise
> they would have lived on to become islamists or give birth to more
> islamists.
Al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster of the 21st century so far, in
the same line as Stalin, Hitler, Mao and Pol Pot. If you like
al-Assad, then I'm not surprised that you're willing to excuse Hitler.
