03-05-2017, 10:37 PM
*** 6-Mar-17 World View -- China's South China Sea policy related to food security in times of war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Vietnam protests China's fishing ban in the South China Sea
****
![[Image: g170305b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170305b.jpg)
Chinese fishing fleet in the South China Sea (Hakai Magazine)
China, whose claim of sovereignty over the South China Sea has been
declared illegal by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration
(PCA) in the Hague, has imposed a fishing ban on the North China Sea,
including regions that are in the exclusive economic zones and
historical fishing grounds of Vietnam and the Philippines. China's
announced ban begins on May 1 and ends on August 16.
The South China Sea is estimated to hold 11 billion barrels of oil,
109 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 10 percent of the world’s
fisheries. Furthermore, 30% of the world’s shipping trade flows
through the South China Sea.
Vietnam's foreign ministry spokesman said, "Vietnam resolutely opposes
and rejects the regulation issued by China." Vietnam will dispatch
fisheries surveillance ships across its territorial waters, focusing
on areas where China has issued its fishing ban. The fisheries
surveillance ships will protect and assist Vietnamese fishermen in
these areas.
News reports don't indicate what form this protection will take.
China has blocked other nations from fishing in their traditional
fishing grounds by using armed coast guard vessels, and ramming
fishing boats or threatening military action. It's not known whether
Vietnam's fisheries surveillance ships will be armed, and whether
there will be a possibility of a military confrontation that could
escalate.
According to reports last year, Vietnam is deploying mobile rocket
launchers on five of its bases in the Spratly Islands, in order to
confront China. VN Express (Vietnam) and AP and VN Express
Related Articles
****
**** China's fishing ban related to food security in times of war
****
For years, China's has had a goal of food self-sufficiency, but with
20% of the world's population, but only 9% of the world's arable land,
this kind food security has always been out of reach. Thus, while
China’s grain production has increased over 44% between 2003 and 2015,
its grain imports (including soybeans) during the same period
skyrocketed by nearly 400%, indicating that growth in domestic grain
production is unable to keep up with population growth.
The history of agricultural in the 68 years of the People's Republic
of China has been dismal. The worst episode was the Great Leap
Forward in 1958-59, a man-made famine where Mao Zedong, killed tens of
millions of people through starvation, slaughter and executions. In
the past 30 years, China has achieved a remarkable increase in grain
productivity, but that achievement was accomplished through overuse of
chemical fertilizers and pesticides coupled with intensive farming
practices that have contributed to severe degradation of land quality,
and an even larger scale of land pollution. Today, China’s
agricultural sector is dominated by hundreds of millions of small
household farms, low and inefficient management at the rural level,
and severe corruption of local government officials. In addition,
China is facing a water crisis, with China's agriculture using
two-thirds of the country's water resources.
According to the International Public Policy (IPP) organization in
Singapore, China should abandon its tight control over agricultural
resources, and resort to using the global agricultural market, as
other countries do.
However, the IPP points out that this will be insufficient "in times
of war (a full-scale war with the United States or other big
countries) which leads to the total collapse of the global food
markets," and will have to take further steps to prepare for war with
the U.S. or other countries:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"To prepare for the worst case scenario, the Chinese
> government needs: 1) to maintain sufficient strategic food
> reserves which can meet the country’s food needs based on
> subsistence consumption levels during the period that new food
> products are produced; 2) protect key agricultural resources,
> particularly arable land and fresh water so as to develop
> agricultural potential which can be quickly utilized to produce
> enough food for the country in times of war."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Control of the South China Sea is important to China not only for its
energy deposits, but for food security -- depending on massive amounts
of fish from the SCS to supplement its agricultural output, especially
in case of war.
However, China's huge fleets of fishing boats have overfished the SCS,
and have depleted a number of species. Thus, food security is at the
heart of China's demands for a moratorium on fishing in the South
China Sea from May 1 to August 16.
However, China's is also using military means to enforce its
moratorium on other countries, notably Vietnam and the Philippines.
Vietnam is making its own military preparations to confront the
Chinese, as described above.
In the case of the Philippines, access to fish has become a bargaining
chip. Last fall, Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte announced a
cutoff of relations with the United States, and also announced that
the relationship with the U.S. would be replaced by a relationship
with China. As a result of that agreement with China, Philippines
fishermen were once again permitted to fish in the country's
traditional fishing grounds around Scarborough Shoal.
Nonetheless, the Philippines military still has close ties with the
U.S. military, and several Philippines ministers are expressing alarm
that China might military the Scarborough Shoal, and gain military
control of the entire South China Sea. International Public Policy Review and Jamestown and Hakai Magazine (Canada)
Related Articles
****
**** North Korea fires four ballistic missiles into sea near Japan
****
As I'm writing this article on Sunday evening (ET), North Korea has
launched four ballistic missiles into Japanese waters, once again in
violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
Once again, this is a new embarrassment to China. This is
particularly true right now, as China's National People's Congress is
in session, during which China's leaders are undoubtedly giving
speeches condemning South Korea's decision to deploy the Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) antimissile system, which China hates.
Thus, these missile launches can only be seen as a message that North
Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is sending to China, presumably to
get revenge for China's decision to halt coal imports from North
Korea.
Once again, North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is a major
problem for the Chinese government, and sooner or later China may
decide to do something about it. Reuters and Yonhap News (Seoul)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, South China Sea, Spratly Islands,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Mao Zedong, Great Leap Forward,
Philippines, Scarborough Shoal, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
North Korea, South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Vietnam protests China's fishing ban in the South China Sea
- China's fishing ban related to food security in times of war
- North Korea fires four ballistic missiles into sea near Japan
****
**** Vietnam protests China's fishing ban in the South China Sea
****
Chinese fishing fleet in the South China Sea (Hakai Magazine)
China, whose claim of sovereignty over the South China Sea has been
declared illegal by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration
(PCA) in the Hague, has imposed a fishing ban on the North China Sea,
including regions that are in the exclusive economic zones and
historical fishing grounds of Vietnam and the Philippines. China's
announced ban begins on May 1 and ends on August 16.
The South China Sea is estimated to hold 11 billion barrels of oil,
109 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 10 percent of the world’s
fisheries. Furthermore, 30% of the world’s shipping trade flows
through the South China Sea.
Vietnam's foreign ministry spokesman said, "Vietnam resolutely opposes
and rejects the regulation issued by China." Vietnam will dispatch
fisheries surveillance ships across its territorial waters, focusing
on areas where China has issued its fishing ban. The fisheries
surveillance ships will protect and assist Vietnamese fishermen in
these areas.
News reports don't indicate what form this protection will take.
China has blocked other nations from fishing in their traditional
fishing grounds by using armed coast guard vessels, and ramming
fishing boats or threatening military action. It's not known whether
Vietnam's fisheries surveillance ships will be armed, and whether
there will be a possibility of a military confrontation that could
escalate.
According to reports last year, Vietnam is deploying mobile rocket
launchers on five of its bases in the Spratly Islands, in order to
confront China. VN Express (Vietnam) and AP and VN Express
Related Articles
- Vietnam deploys rocket launchers in South China Sea to confront China (11-Aug-2016)
- Russia and Vietnam agree to mutual defense cooperation pact to counter China (02-May-2015)
****
**** China's fishing ban related to food security in times of war
****
For years, China's has had a goal of food self-sufficiency, but with
20% of the world's population, but only 9% of the world's arable land,
this kind food security has always been out of reach. Thus, while
China’s grain production has increased over 44% between 2003 and 2015,
its grain imports (including soybeans) during the same period
skyrocketed by nearly 400%, indicating that growth in domestic grain
production is unable to keep up with population growth.
The history of agricultural in the 68 years of the People's Republic
of China has been dismal. The worst episode was the Great Leap
Forward in 1958-59, a man-made famine where Mao Zedong, killed tens of
millions of people through starvation, slaughter and executions. In
the past 30 years, China has achieved a remarkable increase in grain
productivity, but that achievement was accomplished through overuse of
chemical fertilizers and pesticides coupled with intensive farming
practices that have contributed to severe degradation of land quality,
and an even larger scale of land pollution. Today, China’s
agricultural sector is dominated by hundreds of millions of small
household farms, low and inefficient management at the rural level,
and severe corruption of local government officials. In addition,
China is facing a water crisis, with China's agriculture using
two-thirds of the country's water resources.
According to the International Public Policy (IPP) organization in
Singapore, China should abandon its tight control over agricultural
resources, and resort to using the global agricultural market, as
other countries do.
However, the IPP points out that this will be insufficient "in times
of war (a full-scale war with the United States or other big
countries) which leads to the total collapse of the global food
markets," and will have to take further steps to prepare for war with
the U.S. or other countries:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"To prepare for the worst case scenario, the Chinese
> government needs: 1) to maintain sufficient strategic food
> reserves which can meet the country’s food needs based on
> subsistence consumption levels during the period that new food
> products are produced; 2) protect key agricultural resources,
> particularly arable land and fresh water so as to develop
> agricultural potential which can be quickly utilized to produce
> enough food for the country in times of war."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Control of the South China Sea is important to China not only for its
energy deposits, but for food security -- depending on massive amounts
of fish from the SCS to supplement its agricultural output, especially
in case of war.
However, China's huge fleets of fishing boats have overfished the SCS,
and have depleted a number of species. Thus, food security is at the
heart of China's demands for a moratorium on fishing in the South
China Sea from May 1 to August 16.
However, China's is also using military means to enforce its
moratorium on other countries, notably Vietnam and the Philippines.
Vietnam is making its own military preparations to confront the
Chinese, as described above.
In the case of the Philippines, access to fish has become a bargaining
chip. Last fall, Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte announced a
cutoff of relations with the United States, and also announced that
the relationship with the U.S. would be replaced by a relationship
with China. As a result of that agreement with China, Philippines
fishermen were once again permitted to fish in the country's
traditional fishing grounds around Scarborough Shoal.
Nonetheless, the Philippines military still has close ties with the
U.S. military, and several Philippines ministers are expressing alarm
that China might military the Scarborough Shoal, and gain military
control of the entire South China Sea. International Public Policy Review and Jamestown and Hakai Magazine (Canada)
Related Articles
- Mongol invasion of China in 1206 has impact today (06-Dec-2010)
- New book, 'Unhappy China,' stokes Chinese nationalism and anti-Americanism. (12-Apr-2009)
- A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster (17-Nov-2008)
- US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats (31-Jan-2017)
****
**** North Korea fires four ballistic missiles into sea near Japan
****
As I'm writing this article on Sunday evening (ET), North Korea has
launched four ballistic missiles into Japanese waters, once again in
violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
Once again, this is a new embarrassment to China. This is
particularly true right now, as China's National People's Congress is
in session, during which China's leaders are undoubtedly giving
speeches condemning South Korea's decision to deploy the Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) antimissile system, which China hates.
Thus, these missile launches can only be seen as a message that North
Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is sending to China, presumably to
get revenge for China's decision to halt coal imports from North
Korea.
Once again, North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is a major
problem for the Chinese government, and sooner or later China may
decide to do something about it. Reuters and Yonhap News (Seoul)
Related Articles
- New sanctions indicate China is running out of patience with Kim Jong-un (05-Mar-2017)
- China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal (19-Feb-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, South China Sea, Spratly Islands,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Mao Zedong, Great Leap Forward,
Philippines, Scarborough Shoal, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
North Korea, South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
