03-09-2017, 11:35 PM
*** 10-Mar-17 World View -- As more American troops are deployed to Syria, the endgame is more uncertain
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Hundreds of American troops deployed to Syria in support of local forces
****
![[Image: g170309b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170309b.jpg)
Syrian civilians fleeing Manbij on Wednesday (AFP)
The Pentagon is deploying about 400 Marines and Army Rangers to Syria
to assist in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS
or ISIL or Daesh).
Soldiers from the 75th Army Ranger Regiment are deployed in the city
of Manbij. Manbij is currently under the control of the Kurdish
People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia, which is an ally of both the
US and Russia, but whom Turkey's government considers to be terrorists
aligned with Turkey's terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Turkey has vowed to attack Manbij and eject the Kurds. So the
American troops are in Manbij to act as a buffer between the Turks and
the Kurds, and to prevent them from fighting each other.
Both Russian and Syrian forces are also being deployed to Manbij.
Although the US and Russia have held talks to coordinate their forces,
it's not know what's in any agreements that were reached, or how the
forces will interact with each other.
Forces from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are being deployed to
the city of Raqqa, which is considered to be the capital city of ISIS.
According to the Pentagon, local forces will do the actual fighting,
while the American troops will provide artillery support:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"A U.S. Marine Corps artillery unit deployed to
> provide the Coalition greater agility to enable and expedite our
> Syrian partnered forces defeat of ISIS in Raqqa. The strategy
> adopted by the Coalition remains the same – we will continue to
> work by, with and through partnered forces to defeat ISIS in Iraq
> and Syria. Our partners in Syria face an entrenched foe and like
> the Iraqis will require additional support to enable them to fight
> and defeat ISIS in Raqqa. The deployment of these additional key
> enabling capabilities allows the coalition to provide flexible
> all-weather fire support to our Syrian partners when they need it
> most."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
These deployments are raising concerns that the US is becoming more
deeply involved in the war in Syria. The Obama administration had a
policy, in both Iraq and Syria, of minimal involvement, while
supporting local forces with airstrikes and artillery. This new
deployment continues that policy, but concerns are growing that the
number of troops deployed will continue to increase.
Robert Ford, the Obama administration's last ambassador to Syria until
2014, says that these deployments are "fraught with risk." According
to Ford, "That’s not a small policy change. It is a huge policy
change. We have never in our Syrian policy ever put U.S. personnel in
between warring Syrian factions or to maintain a local cease-fire."
The number of U.S. troops now authorized to be in Syria is capped at
503, though that amount does not include the 400 Marines and Army
Rangers because they are on a temporary deployment.
Other reports indicate that the U.S. is preparing for a larger
deployment of troops in Syria. Close to 1,000 troops will be sent to
Kuwait in order to be available for quick deployment to Syria if
necessary. Stars and Stripes and US Naval Institute and Washington Post and Press TV (Tehran)
****
**** As more US troops enter Syria, the endgame becomes fuzzier
****
We now have American, Russian, al-Assad regime, Free Syrian Army (FSA)
Sunni insurgent, Turkish, Kurdish YPG, Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah
soldiers all fighting in Syria. These forces are all united in their
fight against their common enemy, ISIS, with absolutely no clarity
whatsoever about what will happen if and when ISIS is defeated.
Furthermore, while the al-Assad regime still controls an area in
western Syria along the Mediterranean coast, there are still large
regions controlled by Sunni insurgents. Furthermore, the Kurdish YPG
controls a large strip, almost 100 miles deep, along the entire
northern border with Syria -- except for a small region still
controlled by Turkish forces and FSA insurgents.
Of the above forces, the Turks and the YPG Kurds are bitter enemies.
The al-Assad regime and the FSA Sunni insurgents are bitter enemies.
The Turks and the al-Assad regime are bitter enemies. They're all
getting along now, more or less, because the common enemy is ISIS.
The Kurds would like to control the entire northern border with
Turkey, and form an independent state called Rojava. The Turks are
bitterly opposed to this, and will not give up the small region they
control along the border. Bashar al-Assad will never tolerate even
peaceful opposition from the Sunni insurgents. The Sunni insurgents
will never stop fighting as long as Bashar al-Assad is president.
Iran will not tolerate anyone else as president. Russia couldn't care
less who's president, as long as they're controlling Syria. Iran will
not tolerate Russia controlling Syria.
Those are all "big picture" issues. Even the current "small picture"
issues are unresolved. There are Kurdish, Russian, American and
Turkish in or around Manbij, all with different agendas. Who will end
up controlling the city?
And who's going to be fighting ISIS in Raqqa? The US considers the
YPG Kurds to be the best and most reliable force fighting ISIS, but
Kurdish control of Raqqa will be intolerable to both Turkey and the
al-Assad regime.
There actually is a kind of precedent in the fight to recapture Mosul
Iraq from ISIS. The Iraqi army is entering the city from the east and
doing the fighting. The Kurds are blocking ISIS from fleeing to the
north. The Iran-backed Shia militias are blocking ISIS from fleeing
to the west or south. They seem to have coordinated the attack, at
least for the time being.
So in Syria it's a little different. Apparently, the Russians and the
Kurds are joining forces in Raqqa, backed by American artillery. The
battle hasn't yet begun, so we won't know for a while whether this
will work.
So we have two "small picture" issues and a dozen "big picture"
issues. Up until the last couple of months, all of these forces were
able to keep separate. The al-Assad regime was fighting in Aleppo,
Turkey was fighting in northern Syria, Russia and the US-led coalition
were coordinating airstrikes. But those simple solutions are no
longer possible.
I read many media sources from many countries every day, and I have
not read any article or analysis or white paper that convinces me that
anyone has the vaguest clue what's going to happen in the endgame, if
and when ISIS is defeated.
And this is why many people are concerned about the new deployment of
American forces to Manbij and Raqqa. The concern is that once ISIS is
defeated, all these forces will start fighting each other, and US
troops will be drawn in and be part of a major new war.
As I've been writing for many years, Generational Dynamics predicts
that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. We may be seeing the start of that major regional war in
Manbij and Raqqa. Gulf News and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Arab News and The National (UAE) and Guardian (London)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, al-Bab, Manbij, Raqqa,
Operation Euphrates Shield, Kurds, Rojava, Russia,
People’s Protection Units, YPG, Iraq, Mosul,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Robert Ford, Kuwait, Iran, Hezbollah
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Hundreds of American troops deployed to Syria in support of local forces
- As more US troops enter Syria, the endgame becomes fuzzier
****
**** Hundreds of American troops deployed to Syria in support of local forces
****
Syrian civilians fleeing Manbij on Wednesday (AFP)
The Pentagon is deploying about 400 Marines and Army Rangers to Syria
to assist in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS
or ISIL or Daesh).
Soldiers from the 75th Army Ranger Regiment are deployed in the city
of Manbij. Manbij is currently under the control of the Kurdish
People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia, which is an ally of both the
US and Russia, but whom Turkey's government considers to be terrorists
aligned with Turkey's terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Turkey has vowed to attack Manbij and eject the Kurds. So the
American troops are in Manbij to act as a buffer between the Turks and
the Kurds, and to prevent them from fighting each other.
Both Russian and Syrian forces are also being deployed to Manbij.
Although the US and Russia have held talks to coordinate their forces,
it's not know what's in any agreements that were reached, or how the
forces will interact with each other.
Forces from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are being deployed to
the city of Raqqa, which is considered to be the capital city of ISIS.
According to the Pentagon, local forces will do the actual fighting,
while the American troops will provide artillery support:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"A U.S. Marine Corps artillery unit deployed to
> provide the Coalition greater agility to enable and expedite our
> Syrian partnered forces defeat of ISIS in Raqqa. The strategy
> adopted by the Coalition remains the same – we will continue to
> work by, with and through partnered forces to defeat ISIS in Iraq
> and Syria. Our partners in Syria face an entrenched foe and like
> the Iraqis will require additional support to enable them to fight
> and defeat ISIS in Raqqa. The deployment of these additional key
> enabling capabilities allows the coalition to provide flexible
> all-weather fire support to our Syrian partners when they need it
> most."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
These deployments are raising concerns that the US is becoming more
deeply involved in the war in Syria. The Obama administration had a
policy, in both Iraq and Syria, of minimal involvement, while
supporting local forces with airstrikes and artillery. This new
deployment continues that policy, but concerns are growing that the
number of troops deployed will continue to increase.
Robert Ford, the Obama administration's last ambassador to Syria until
2014, says that these deployments are "fraught with risk." According
to Ford, "That’s not a small policy change. It is a huge policy
change. We have never in our Syrian policy ever put U.S. personnel in
between warring Syrian factions or to maintain a local cease-fire."
The number of U.S. troops now authorized to be in Syria is capped at
503, though that amount does not include the 400 Marines and Army
Rangers because they are on a temporary deployment.
Other reports indicate that the U.S. is preparing for a larger
deployment of troops in Syria. Close to 1,000 troops will be sent to
Kuwait in order to be available for quick deployment to Syria if
necessary. Stars and Stripes and US Naval Institute and Washington Post and Press TV (Tehran)
****
**** As more US troops enter Syria, the endgame becomes fuzzier
****
We now have American, Russian, al-Assad regime, Free Syrian Army (FSA)
Sunni insurgent, Turkish, Kurdish YPG, Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah
soldiers all fighting in Syria. These forces are all united in their
fight against their common enemy, ISIS, with absolutely no clarity
whatsoever about what will happen if and when ISIS is defeated.
Furthermore, while the al-Assad regime still controls an area in
western Syria along the Mediterranean coast, there are still large
regions controlled by Sunni insurgents. Furthermore, the Kurdish YPG
controls a large strip, almost 100 miles deep, along the entire
northern border with Syria -- except for a small region still
controlled by Turkish forces and FSA insurgents.
Of the above forces, the Turks and the YPG Kurds are bitter enemies.
The al-Assad regime and the FSA Sunni insurgents are bitter enemies.
The Turks and the al-Assad regime are bitter enemies. They're all
getting along now, more or less, because the common enemy is ISIS.
The Kurds would like to control the entire northern border with
Turkey, and form an independent state called Rojava. The Turks are
bitterly opposed to this, and will not give up the small region they
control along the border. Bashar al-Assad will never tolerate even
peaceful opposition from the Sunni insurgents. The Sunni insurgents
will never stop fighting as long as Bashar al-Assad is president.
Iran will not tolerate anyone else as president. Russia couldn't care
less who's president, as long as they're controlling Syria. Iran will
not tolerate Russia controlling Syria.
Those are all "big picture" issues. Even the current "small picture"
issues are unresolved. There are Kurdish, Russian, American and
Turkish in or around Manbij, all with different agendas. Who will end
up controlling the city?
And who's going to be fighting ISIS in Raqqa? The US considers the
YPG Kurds to be the best and most reliable force fighting ISIS, but
Kurdish control of Raqqa will be intolerable to both Turkey and the
al-Assad regime.
There actually is a kind of precedent in the fight to recapture Mosul
Iraq from ISIS. The Iraqi army is entering the city from the east and
doing the fighting. The Kurds are blocking ISIS from fleeing to the
north. The Iran-backed Shia militias are blocking ISIS from fleeing
to the west or south. They seem to have coordinated the attack, at
least for the time being.
So in Syria it's a little different. Apparently, the Russians and the
Kurds are joining forces in Raqqa, backed by American artillery. The
battle hasn't yet begun, so we won't know for a while whether this
will work.
So we have two "small picture" issues and a dozen "big picture"
issues. Up until the last couple of months, all of these forces were
able to keep separate. The al-Assad regime was fighting in Aleppo,
Turkey was fighting in northern Syria, Russia and the US-led coalition
were coordinating airstrikes. But those simple solutions are no
longer possible.
I read many media sources from many countries every day, and I have
not read any article or analysis or white paper that convinces me that
anyone has the vaguest clue what's going to happen in the endgame, if
and when ISIS is defeated.
And this is why many people are concerned about the new deployment of
American forces to Manbij and Raqqa. The concern is that once ISIS is
defeated, all these forces will start fighting each other, and US
troops will be drawn in and be part of a major new war.
As I've been writing for many years, Generational Dynamics predicts
that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. We may be seeing the start of that major regional war in
Manbij and Raqqa. Gulf News and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Arab News and The National (UAE) and Guardian (London)
Related Articles
- Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converge on a major military confrontation in al-Bab (26-Nov-2016)
- Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
- US forced to choose between two close allies, as Turks bomb Kurds in Syria (29-Aug-2016)
- Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq (25-Oct-2016)
- From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, al-Bab, Manbij, Raqqa,
Operation Euphrates Shield, Kurds, Rojava, Russia,
People’s Protection Units, YPG, Iraq, Mosul,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Robert Ford, Kuwait, Iran, Hezbollah
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
