03-30-2017, 10:09 PM
*** 31-Mar-17 World View -- Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball
****
![[Image: g170330b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170330b.jpg)
Theresa May
I hadn't realized how final the action was on Wednesday, when
Britain's prime minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon
Treaty, triggering a two-year negotiation period leading to the United
Kingdom official exiting the European Union as one of its member
states.
I had thought that during the two-year negotiation period, it was at
least possible that saner heads might prevail, and the UK would change
its mind and remain in the EU. However, it turns out that once
Article 50 is invoked, the decision is final, and the UK can no longer
change its mind. If the UK wants to remain in the EU, then remaining
would require approval of all 27 of the remaining member states, and
that seems almost impossible, given the vitriolic nature of today's
politics.
So the die is cast, and now the serious negotiations must begin, and
EU negotiators are playing hardball.
Theresa May: “No deal is better than a bad deal.” This means that
Britain will walk away from a deal if it's not a good deal.
EU officials: "Britain must not get a better deal outside the EU than
it has within the EU." EU officials fear that a good deal for Britain
might encourage other EU members to leave.
Britain and Theresa May want the first subject of negotiation to be
trade, so that businesses in both the UK and the EU can make plans for
conducting business in the future.
Donald Tusk and the European Commission are refusing to take that
route. They want the first order of business to be the "terms of the
divorce" - how you split the assets and liabilities.
In particular, EU officials are saying that the UK must pay the EU
some €60 billion, and only when that issue is settled will they
be willing to discuss trade and other issues important to Theresa May
and Britain. The 60 billion includes such things as pension payments
to British nationals working for EU employers, and spending
commitments for EU projects and social programs that Britain committed
to contributing to when they were still in love. Some British
politicians are saying that they refuse to pay any of this, so this is
a potentially serious issue.
In her letter to European Commission president Donald Tusk, Theresa
May wrote:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is in the best interests of both the United
> Kingdom and the European Union that we should use the forthcoming
> process to deliver these objectives in a fair and orderly manner,
> and with as little disruption as possible on each side. We want to
> make sure that Europe remains strong and prosperous and is capable
> of projecting its values, leading in the world, and defending
> itself from security threats. We want the United Kingdom, through
> a new deep and special partnership with a strong European Union,
> to play its full part in achieving these goals. We therefore
> believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future
> partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the European
> Union."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Many people are describing this as a threat, implying that the
security relationship between Britain and the EU would be threatened
if Brussels demanded that the €60 billion issue be resolved
before anything else could be even discussed.
There's one issue that analysts are saying should be easy to resolve:
The question of what happens to EU nationals working in Britain, and
to British nationals working in the EU. Issues like medical
benefits, pensions, and freedom of travel will have to be resolved.
Although these problems are big enough to seem insurmountable,
analysts are saying that both sides are anxious to resolve them, and
so it will be done.
On Friday, Donald Tusk will release his proposed negotiating
guidelines for Brexit talks. The proposal will then have to be
approved by the remaining 27 EU member states. Whenever that happens,
then the negotiations can begin.
I heard one analyst ways that almost nothing will be accomplished in
the negotiations for about 18 months, until October 2018, at which
time everyone will go into a panic. Text of Theresa May's letter and Daily Mail (London) and Reuters
****
**** Britain proposes 'The Great Repeal Bill'
****
This is really mind-blowing. The problem is that Britain has been
following the laws and regulations of the European Union for decades,
and on the day that Britain leaves the EU, all of these thousands of
laws and regulations will disappear, resulting in something close to
anarchy.
So the government is proposing "The Great Repeal Bill," which will do
the following:
According to Britain's government, there are about 12,000 EU
regulations in force in Britain, about 7,900 implemented EU
directives, and some 186 acts of Parliament that will have be absorbed
into British law, and then amended over time.
There's a mind-boggling irony to all this. The purpose of Brexit was
to prevent Britain from being under the control of Brussels. But in
fact, Britain will be under the control of the Brussels' laws for
years to come.
Furthermore, existing EU case law will continue to have precedence of
existing British law. According to the description of the repeal
bill:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"If, after exit, a conflict arises between two
> pre-exit laws, one of which is an EU-derived law and the other
> not, then the EU-derived law will continue to take precedence over
> the other pre-exit law."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This reminds me of the old saying: "Be careful what you wish for. You
might get it." UK government - The Great Repeal Bill and Business Insider and CNN
Related Articles
****
**** Scotland demands a new referendum on leaving the EU
****
Of the four nations in the United Kingdom, England and Wales voted for
Brexit, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU.
Now they're being forced to leave the EU against their will.
On September 18, 2014, Scotland held a referendum on the question of
whether Scotland should leave the UK and become an independent
country. This would have dissolved the 1707 union between England and
Scotland that came out of the War of the Spanish Succession. If the
referendum had passed, then Scotland might have left the UK and become
an independent country. It wouldn't automatically have been a member
of the EU, however, as joining the EU would have required the approval
of all 28 countries.
The referendum was voted down, but that was before Brexit. Now,
Scotland's parliament has has voted by 69 to 59 to hold a new
referendum. However, a new referendum on this subject cannot be held
without the approval of Britain's government in London.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has signed a letter formally
asking for permission to hold a second Scottish independence
referendum.
Theresa May has said that the UK government will not approve the
referendum until Brexit is completed, two years from now.
Sturgeon says that she may go ahead with an unofficial referendum.
Scottish Sun and BBC
Related Articles
****
**** Northern Ireland considers reuniting with the Republic of Ireland
****
Northern Ireland also voted to remain in the EU, but the situation is
quite different than for Scotland.
Ireland has a long bitter history of religious and factional wars, and
it's only in recent years that the border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland has been open for free travel of people and goods. However,
once Brexit occurs, Ireland will be in the European Union, while
Northern Ireland will not, and finding a way to keep the border open
has been a major priority for Northern Ireland, Ireland, London, and
the EU.
Over a period of centuries, many of the sectarian wars in Ireland have
been between the Catholic republicans, who want to unify Ireland and
Northern Ireland, versus the Protestant loyalists, who want Northern
Ireland to be part of the UK.
Now those old wounds are opening again, as a proposed solution to the
"open border" problem would be for Northern Ireland to leave the UK
and become part of the Republic of Ireland. There wouldn't even be a
problem with the EU, as Northern Ireland would automatically be part
of the EU since it would be part of Ireland.
This is an extremely emotional issue in Ireland, and may even result
in new violence. RTE (Ireland) and Irish Times
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, United Kingdom, European Union, Brexit,
Theresa May, Great Repeal Bill, Donald Tusk,
European Communities Act, ECA,
Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, War of the Spanish Succession,
Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball
- Britain proposes 'The Great Repeal Bill'
- Scotland demands a new referendum on leaving the EU
- Northern Ireland considers reuniting with the Republic of Ireland
****
**** Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball
****
Theresa May
I hadn't realized how final the action was on Wednesday, when
Britain's prime minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon
Treaty, triggering a two-year negotiation period leading to the United
Kingdom official exiting the European Union as one of its member
states.
I had thought that during the two-year negotiation period, it was at
least possible that saner heads might prevail, and the UK would change
its mind and remain in the EU. However, it turns out that once
Article 50 is invoked, the decision is final, and the UK can no longer
change its mind. If the UK wants to remain in the EU, then remaining
would require approval of all 27 of the remaining member states, and
that seems almost impossible, given the vitriolic nature of today's
politics.
So the die is cast, and now the serious negotiations must begin, and
EU negotiators are playing hardball.
Theresa May: “No deal is better than a bad deal.” This means that
Britain will walk away from a deal if it's not a good deal.
EU officials: "Britain must not get a better deal outside the EU than
it has within the EU." EU officials fear that a good deal for Britain
might encourage other EU members to leave.
Britain and Theresa May want the first subject of negotiation to be
trade, so that businesses in both the UK and the EU can make plans for
conducting business in the future.
Donald Tusk and the European Commission are refusing to take that
route. They want the first order of business to be the "terms of the
divorce" - how you split the assets and liabilities.
In particular, EU officials are saying that the UK must pay the EU
some €60 billion, and only when that issue is settled will they
be willing to discuss trade and other issues important to Theresa May
and Britain. The 60 billion includes such things as pension payments
to British nationals working for EU employers, and spending
commitments for EU projects and social programs that Britain committed
to contributing to when they were still in love. Some British
politicians are saying that they refuse to pay any of this, so this is
a potentially serious issue.
In her letter to European Commission president Donald Tusk, Theresa
May wrote:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is in the best interests of both the United
> Kingdom and the European Union that we should use the forthcoming
> process to deliver these objectives in a fair and orderly manner,
> and with as little disruption as possible on each side. We want to
> make sure that Europe remains strong and prosperous and is capable
> of projecting its values, leading in the world, and defending
> itself from security threats. We want the United Kingdom, through
> a new deep and special partnership with a strong European Union,
> to play its full part in achieving these goals. We therefore
> believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future
> partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the European
> Union."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Many people are describing this as a threat, implying that the
security relationship between Britain and the EU would be threatened
if Brussels demanded that the €60 billion issue be resolved
before anything else could be even discussed.
There's one issue that analysts are saying should be easy to resolve:
The question of what happens to EU nationals working in Britain, and
to British nationals working in the EU. Issues like medical
benefits, pensions, and freedom of travel will have to be resolved.
Although these problems are big enough to seem insurmountable,
analysts are saying that both sides are anxious to resolve them, and
so it will be done.
On Friday, Donald Tusk will release his proposed negotiating
guidelines for Brexit talks. The proposal will then have to be
approved by the remaining 27 EU member states. Whenever that happens,
then the negotiations can begin.
I heard one analyst ways that almost nothing will be accomplished in
the negotiations for about 18 months, until October 2018, at which
time everyone will go into a panic. Text of Theresa May's letter and Daily Mail (London) and Reuters
****
**** Britain proposes 'The Great Repeal Bill'
****
This is really mind-blowing. The problem is that Britain has been
following the laws and regulations of the European Union for decades,
and on the day that Britain leaves the EU, all of these thousands of
laws and regulations will disappear, resulting in something close to
anarchy.
So the government is proposing "The Great Repeal Bill," which will do
the following:
- Repeal the European Communities Act (ECA), under which
European law, regulations and courts are supreme over British law,
regulations and courts. Getting rid of the ECA was a major objective
of those who wanted Britain to leave the EU.
- On the final Brexit day, two years from now, Britain will take a
"snapshot" of the entire body of EU laws, regulations and court
decisions, and make them a part of British law.
- Define a process for amending or repealing the inherited EU laws,
regulations and court decisions. Since there are many thousands of
them, this could take ten to twenty years.
- Give special powers to the government to amend or repeal the
inherited laws without having to get approval from the parliament.
This will give enormous, sweeping, almost dictatorial powers to the
government, and there's no simple way to prevent officials from
abusing those powers.
According to Britain's government, there are about 12,000 EU
regulations in force in Britain, about 7,900 implemented EU
directives, and some 186 acts of Parliament that will have be absorbed
into British law, and then amended over time.
There's a mind-boggling irony to all this. The purpose of Brexit was
to prevent Britain from being under the control of Brussels. But in
fact, Britain will be under the control of the Brussels' laws for
years to come.
Furthermore, existing EU case law will continue to have precedence of
existing British law. According to the description of the repeal
bill:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"If, after exit, a conflict arises between two
> pre-exit laws, one of which is an EU-derived law and the other
> not, then the EU-derived law will continue to take precedence over
> the other pre-exit law."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This reminds me of the old saying: "Be careful what you wish for. You
might get it." UK government - The Great Repeal Bill and Business Insider and CNN
Related Articles
- Britain's Tony Blair calls for the people 'to rise up' and reverse Brexit (18-Feb-2017)
- European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech (19-Jan-2017)
- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets (25-Jun-2016)
- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
****
**** Scotland demands a new referendum on leaving the EU
****
Of the four nations in the United Kingdom, England and Wales voted for
Brexit, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU.
Now they're being forced to leave the EU against their will.
On September 18, 2014, Scotland held a referendum on the question of
whether Scotland should leave the UK and become an independent
country. This would have dissolved the 1707 union between England and
Scotland that came out of the War of the Spanish Succession. If the
referendum had passed, then Scotland might have left the UK and become
an independent country. It wouldn't automatically have been a member
of the EU, however, as joining the EU would have required the approval
of all 28 countries.
The referendum was voted down, but that was before Brexit. Now,
Scotland's parliament has has voted by 69 to 59 to hold a new
referendum. However, a new referendum on this subject cannot be held
without the approval of Britain's government in London.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has signed a letter formally
asking for permission to hold a second Scottish independence
referendum.
Theresa May has said that the UK government will not approve the
referendum until Brexit is completed, two years from now.
Sturgeon says that she may go ahead with an unofficial referendum.
Scottish Sun and BBC
Related Articles
- Scotland faces reality as independence referendum approaches (18-Feb-2014)
- Scotland considers separation from England as 'Hard Brexit' looms (15-Oct-2016)
- Scotland's independence referendum is encouraging Catalonia's separatists (11-Sep-2014)
****
**** Northern Ireland considers reuniting with the Republic of Ireland
****
Northern Ireland also voted to remain in the EU, but the situation is
quite different than for Scotland.
Ireland has a long bitter history of religious and factional wars, and
it's only in recent years that the border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland has been open for free travel of people and goods. However,
once Brexit occurs, Ireland will be in the European Union, while
Northern Ireland will not, and finding a way to keep the border open
has been a major priority for Northern Ireland, Ireland, London, and
the EU.
Over a period of centuries, many of the sectarian wars in Ireland have
been between the Catholic republicans, who want to unify Ireland and
Northern Ireland, versus the Protestant loyalists, who want Northern
Ireland to be part of the UK.
Now those old wounds are opening again, as a proposed solution to the
"open border" problem would be for Northern Ireland to leave the UK
and become part of the Republic of Ireland. There wouldn't even be a
problem with the EU, as Northern Ireland would automatically be part
of the EU since it would be part of Ireland.
This is an extremely emotional issue in Ireland, and may even result
in new violence. RTE (Ireland) and Irish Times
Related Articles
- England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland (12-May-2016)
- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, United Kingdom, European Union, Brexit,
Theresa May, Great Repeal Bill, Donald Tusk,
European Communities Act, ECA,
Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, War of the Spanish Succession,
Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
