03-31-2017, 10:07 PM
*** 1-Apr-17 World View -- India-Pakistan clash threatened as Kashmir violence surges again
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Violence in India-controlled Kashmir takes a new turn after winter lull
****
![[Image: g170331b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170331b.jpg)
A group of youth pelt stones at Indian security forces in Budgam on Tuesday (PTI)
On Wednesday, in the district of Budgam in India-controlled Kashmir,
Indian security forces raided the home of an anti-government militant
Tauseef Ahmad Wagay who had allegedly been responsible for inciting
violence against police. According to India media reports, villagers
began obstructing the police and pelting them with stones, in order to
allow the militants in the home to escape. In the end, three stone
pelters were killed by police gunfire, along with the militant.
Dozens of police personnel were injured.
On Friday, after Friday prayers, clashes erupted between government
forces and stone-throwing villagers in several towns across Kashmir,
to protest the shooting deaths on Wednesday.
Stone-throwing incidents have occurred occasionally in the past, but
became frequent after July 8 of last year, when Burhan Wani, the
leader of the Kashmir separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed
by Indian police fire. Massive riots in Kashmir began the next day.
Indian police responded with rubber bullets, leaving many protesters
wounded or killed or blinded by the pellets, and that kind of violence
has been an almost daily occurrence since then. After hundreds of
people had been blinded by the pellets, the police were convinced to
stop using them. By this time winter was approaching, and the
protests died down.
But now that the weather is getting warmer again, the protests are
growing again, and they may become massive by the end of the summer.
At any rate, there's certainly no reason to expect them to die off.
India's Home Minister Rajnath Singh gave a delusional speech on
Friday, saying that the increasing protests are occurring because
they're being encouraged by Pakistan-based sources, using social media
applications like Whatsapp and Facebook:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I want to inform the House, and we should be proud of
> it Deputy Chairman, that the way the terrorists should be
> responded to, our soldiers are giving them reply in the same way,
> in the same language.
>
> A new trend has started in the last few months. Deputy speaker,
> the trend is this that whenever our soldiers start an operation,
> some youth from the villages come and start pelting stones on the
> security forces. But I believe, that our Kashmiri youth, who do
> stone pelting, are being misled by some Pak-sponsored sources.
>
> I want to appeal to the youth of Kashmir to please don’t get
> misled by Pakistan, they are regularly trying to destabilise
> India. I also want to inform the House that this crowd (of stone
> pelters) are assembled by some Pakistan-based groups with the help
> of social media applications like Whatsapp and Facebook. All of
> these are used. I want to say it again that the groups, which use
> social media for this, are based in Pakistan only.
>
> I also want to say, as far as terrorism is concerned, the way
> terrorism should be responded to, our soldiers are dealing with
> them in the same way and they will keep doing that in future
> also. And I want to say that will definitely become
> successful."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
There are a couple of things to note about the above statement.
First, there's a note of revenge in the speech with such phrases as,
"our soldiers are giving them reply in the same way, in the same
language." The desire for revenge is quite understandable under the
circumstances, but it's not going to end the violence and, in fact, it
will only invite tit-for-tat increases in violence.
Second, Singh blames Pakistan-based groups using social media for
inciting the stone-throwers. It's quite possible that Pakistan-based
groups are using social media to incite stone-throwers, but in no way
does that explain the large protests. Al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups
have been trying to incite jihadist violence in the United States for
years, but outside of a few "lone wolf" attacks, we've had no large
similar protests, even where there are large Muslim communities in
Detroit and Minneapolis. Blaming social media for what's happening is
totally delusional.
Third, Singh says, "And I want to say that will definitely become
successful." Once again, this is totally delusional.
What seems most likely to happen is that violence will increase on
both sides this summer, and may spiral into something slightly bigger
or much bigger. First Post (India) and Financial Express (India)
Related Articles
****
**** Indian police arrest top separatist militant commander in Kashmir
****
Separately on Friday, Amir Wagay, the current top commander of Hizbul
Mujahideen, was arrested on Friday, along with some arms and
ammunition, according to police reports. He was involved in numerous
attacks on security forces, and was high on the "wanted" list.
Burhan Wani, who was shot by police on July 8 of last year, triggering
months of violent protests, was the commander of Hizbul Mujahideen at
that time. Hindustan Times
Related Articles
****
**** Uprising in Kashmir growing into major regional war between India and Pakistan
****
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the growing violence
in Kashmir is following a fairly standard historical template that
always ends in a major war. I've written in the past to distinguish
between "organic" genocides that come from the people, such as the
1994 Rwanda genocide, versus "government-led" genocides, such as
occurring today in Syria and South Sudan.
Although there's little doubt that Pakistan-based groups are inciting
violence in Kashmir, that isn't enough to start a generational war
unless the mood of the population is that such a war is necessary. As
I mentioned above, there are jihadists groups inciting Muslims in
America to violence, but they're having almost no success. But what
we're seeing in Kashmir is an "organic" war that's leading unstoppably
to a generational crisis war.
As I described last year,
India's
last two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, and the
1947 Partition war.
The 1857 rebellion is also called India's First War of Independence
from the British colonial power. What started out as protests related
to the Hindu veneration of cows grew into an extremely bloody
generational crisis war, resulting in the deaths of over 100,000
Indian civilians.
India remained a British colony, and there was little or no violence
for decades, as always happens after a generational crisis war, since
the traumatized survivors do not wish anything so horrible to happen
again. However, as younger generations with no personal memory of the
war rise to power, conflicts begin again.
In the 1910s, Mahatma Gandhi, the Indian peace activist, launched a
"non-cooperation movement" against the British, involving civil
disobedience. The generational Awakening era climax occurred on April
10-12, 1919, with the Jalianvala Bagh Massacre (Amritsar Massacre),
when British troops opened fire on 10,000 Sikhs holding a protest
meeting, killing hundreds. That event convinced both the British and
the Indians that Britain should completely give up control of India.
By 1946, there was a debate centered on two choices: Should there be a
single Indian state, with separate regions under the control of
Muslims and Hindus, or should there be a two-state solution, a Muslim
state living side-by-side in peace with a Hindu state? The argument
that won the day was that Muslims can't stand pigs and Hindus can't
eat cows, and so they can't live together. Finally, British, Muslim
and Hindu officials all agreed that there had to be two separate
states, India and Pakistan. In particular, the 1857 rebellion was
still in everyone's mind, and it was hoped that the two-state solution
would lead to peace.
There's an old saying that "History doesn't repeat itself, but it
rhymes." In 1947, the Indian subcontinent was partitioned into two
countries, India and Pakistan, and no sooner did that happen then
there was a massive new generational crisis war. But with the British
colonists gone, this war pitted the Hindus against Muslims, in one of
the bloodiest wars of the 20th century.
Once again, there was relative peace following the war, but once
again, younger generations have been rising, and have no fear of a new
war. The accusation that Pakistan-based groups are using social media
to incite violence is undoubtedly true, but India media are no better.
Here's an excerpt from an opinion piece from right-of-center Indian
media:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is good that the Army Chief has made good his
> promise that those aiding terrorists will be dealt with like
> terrorists themselves, but there are discordant notes being struck
> by politicians who still think talks can sort out the
> situation. ...
>
> It is silly to expect that talks with Pakistan or Kashmiri
> separatists will somehow bring peace to the Valley. It won’t. The
> only way peace will come is when the security forces wear down the
> jihadis and Pakistan-backed terrorists over years, and the local
> population realizes that they have no alternative but to be a part
> of secular India. There is not going to be any instant nirvana in
> this deadly game."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The person who wrote has absolutely no clue what he's talking about
when he writes, "The only way peace will come is when the security
forces wear down the jihadis and Pakistan-backed terrorists." That is
not what happens in a generational Crisis era. The security forces
will only enrage the separatist youth, and tit-for-tat escalations
will soon lead to a full-scale war that will spread and engulf both
Pakistan and India. That's the way that the world works.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast,
Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. Swarajya Magazine (India
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Budgam, Tauseef Ahmad Wagay,
Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, Rajnath Singh, Pakistan,
Whatsapp, Facebook, Amir Wagay, 1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition War,
Mahatma Gandhi, Jalianvala Bagh Massacre, Amritsar Massacre
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Violence in India-controlled Kashmir takes a new turn after winter lull
- Indian police arrest top separatist militant commander in Kashmir
- Uprising in Kashmir growing into major regional war between India and Pakistan
****
**** Violence in India-controlled Kashmir takes a new turn after winter lull
****
A group of youth pelt stones at Indian security forces in Budgam on Tuesday (PTI)
On Wednesday, in the district of Budgam in India-controlled Kashmir,
Indian security forces raided the home of an anti-government militant
Tauseef Ahmad Wagay who had allegedly been responsible for inciting
violence against police. According to India media reports, villagers
began obstructing the police and pelting them with stones, in order to
allow the militants in the home to escape. In the end, three stone
pelters were killed by police gunfire, along with the militant.
Dozens of police personnel were injured.
On Friday, after Friday prayers, clashes erupted between government
forces and stone-throwing villagers in several towns across Kashmir,
to protest the shooting deaths on Wednesday.
Stone-throwing incidents have occurred occasionally in the past, but
became frequent after July 8 of last year, when Burhan Wani, the
leader of the Kashmir separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed
by Indian police fire. Massive riots in Kashmir began the next day.
Indian police responded with rubber bullets, leaving many protesters
wounded or killed or blinded by the pellets, and that kind of violence
has been an almost daily occurrence since then. After hundreds of
people had been blinded by the pellets, the police were convinced to
stop using them. By this time winter was approaching, and the
protests died down.
But now that the weather is getting warmer again, the protests are
growing again, and they may become massive by the end of the summer.
At any rate, there's certainly no reason to expect them to die off.
India's Home Minister Rajnath Singh gave a delusional speech on
Friday, saying that the increasing protests are occurring because
they're being encouraged by Pakistan-based sources, using social media
applications like Whatsapp and Facebook:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I want to inform the House, and we should be proud of
> it Deputy Chairman, that the way the terrorists should be
> responded to, our soldiers are giving them reply in the same way,
> in the same language.
>
> A new trend has started in the last few months. Deputy speaker,
> the trend is this that whenever our soldiers start an operation,
> some youth from the villages come and start pelting stones on the
> security forces. But I believe, that our Kashmiri youth, who do
> stone pelting, are being misled by some Pak-sponsored sources.
>
> I want to appeal to the youth of Kashmir to please don’t get
> misled by Pakistan, they are regularly trying to destabilise
> India. I also want to inform the House that this crowd (of stone
> pelters) are assembled by some Pakistan-based groups with the help
> of social media applications like Whatsapp and Facebook. All of
> these are used. I want to say it again that the groups, which use
> social media for this, are based in Pakistan only.
>
> I also want to say, as far as terrorism is concerned, the way
> terrorism should be responded to, our soldiers are dealing with
> them in the same way and they will keep doing that in future
> also. And I want to say that will definitely become
> successful."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
There are a couple of things to note about the above statement.
First, there's a note of revenge in the speech with such phrases as,
"our soldiers are giving them reply in the same way, in the same
language." The desire for revenge is quite understandable under the
circumstances, but it's not going to end the violence and, in fact, it
will only invite tit-for-tat increases in violence.
Second, Singh blames Pakistan-based groups using social media for
inciting the stone-throwers. It's quite possible that Pakistan-based
groups are using social media to incite stone-throwers, but in no way
does that explain the large protests. Al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups
have been trying to incite jihadist violence in the United States for
years, but outside of a few "lone wolf" attacks, we've had no large
similar protests, even where there are large Muslim communities in
Detroit and Minneapolis. Blaming social media for what's happening is
totally delusional.
Third, Singh says, "And I want to say that will definitely become
successful." Once again, this is totally delusional.
What seems most likely to happen is that violence will increase on
both sides this summer, and may spiral into something slightly bigger
or much bigger. First Post (India) and Financial Express (India)
Related Articles
- India-Pakistan tensions rise as India celebrates 1971 victory over Pakistan (16-Dec-2016)
- India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
- India, Pakistan celebrate independence day with vitriolic accusations about Kashmir (15-Aug-2016)
****
**** Indian police arrest top separatist militant commander in Kashmir
****
Separately on Friday, Amir Wagay, the current top commander of Hizbul
Mujahideen, was arrested on Friday, along with some arms and
ammunition, according to police reports. He was involved in numerous
attacks on security forces, and was high on the "wanted" list.
Burhan Wani, who was shot by police on July 8 of last year, triggering
months of violent protests, was the commander of Hizbul Mujahideen at
that time. Hindustan Times
Related Articles
****
**** Uprising in Kashmir growing into major regional war between India and Pakistan
****
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the growing violence
in Kashmir is following a fairly standard historical template that
always ends in a major war. I've written in the past to distinguish
between "organic" genocides that come from the people, such as the
1994 Rwanda genocide, versus "government-led" genocides, such as
occurring today in Syria and South Sudan.
Although there's little doubt that Pakistan-based groups are inciting
violence in Kashmir, that isn't enough to start a generational war
unless the mood of the population is that such a war is necessary. As
I mentioned above, there are jihadists groups inciting Muslims in
America to violence, but they're having almost no success. But what
we're seeing in Kashmir is an "organic" war that's leading unstoppably
to a generational crisis war.
As I described last year,
India's
last two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, and the
1947 Partition war.
The 1857 rebellion is also called India's First War of Independence
from the British colonial power. What started out as protests related
to the Hindu veneration of cows grew into an extremely bloody
generational crisis war, resulting in the deaths of over 100,000
Indian civilians.
India remained a British colony, and there was little or no violence
for decades, as always happens after a generational crisis war, since
the traumatized survivors do not wish anything so horrible to happen
again. However, as younger generations with no personal memory of the
war rise to power, conflicts begin again.
In the 1910s, Mahatma Gandhi, the Indian peace activist, launched a
"non-cooperation movement" against the British, involving civil
disobedience. The generational Awakening era climax occurred on April
10-12, 1919, with the Jalianvala Bagh Massacre (Amritsar Massacre),
when British troops opened fire on 10,000 Sikhs holding a protest
meeting, killing hundreds. That event convinced both the British and
the Indians that Britain should completely give up control of India.
By 1946, there was a debate centered on two choices: Should there be a
single Indian state, with separate regions under the control of
Muslims and Hindus, or should there be a two-state solution, a Muslim
state living side-by-side in peace with a Hindu state? The argument
that won the day was that Muslims can't stand pigs and Hindus can't
eat cows, and so they can't live together. Finally, British, Muslim
and Hindu officials all agreed that there had to be two separate
states, India and Pakistan. In particular, the 1857 rebellion was
still in everyone's mind, and it was hoped that the two-state solution
would lead to peace.
There's an old saying that "History doesn't repeat itself, but it
rhymes." In 1947, the Indian subcontinent was partitioned into two
countries, India and Pakistan, and no sooner did that happen then
there was a massive new generational crisis war. But with the British
colonists gone, this war pitted the Hindus against Muslims, in one of
the bloodiest wars of the 20th century.
Once again, there was relative peace following the war, but once
again, younger generations have been rising, and have no fear of a new
war. The accusation that Pakistan-based groups are using social media
to incite violence is undoubtedly true, but India media are no better.
Here's an excerpt from an opinion piece from right-of-center Indian
media:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is good that the Army Chief has made good his
> promise that those aiding terrorists will be dealt with like
> terrorists themselves, but there are discordant notes being struck
> by politicians who still think talks can sort out the
> situation. ...
>
> It is silly to expect that talks with Pakistan or Kashmiri
> separatists will somehow bring peace to the Valley. It won’t. The
> only way peace will come is when the security forces wear down the
> jihadis and Pakistan-backed terrorists over years, and the local
> population realizes that they have no alternative but to be a part
> of secular India. There is not going to be any instant nirvana in
> this deadly game."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The person who wrote has absolutely no clue what he's talking about
when he writes, "The only way peace will come is when the security
forces wear down the jihadis and Pakistan-backed terrorists." That is
not what happens in a generational Crisis era. The security forces
will only enrage the separatist youth, and tit-for-tat escalations
will soon lead to a full-scale war that will spread and engulf both
Pakistan and India. That's the way that the world works.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast,
Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. Swarajya Magazine (India
Related Articles
- Generational history of cow protection in India and Hinduism (07-Aug-2016)
- A century of genocides (21-Mar-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Budgam, Tauseef Ahmad Wagay,
Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, Rajnath Singh, Pakistan,
Whatsapp, Facebook, Amir Wagay, 1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition War,
Mahatma Gandhi, Jalianvala Bagh Massacre, Amritsar Massacre
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
