04-12-2017, 09:53 PM
*** 13-Apr-17 World View -- Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defies Supreme Leader and runs for president
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defies Supreme Leader and runs for president
****
![[Image: g170412b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170412b.jpg)
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gives a 'V for Victory' sign after registering on Wednesday to run for president
Iran's colorful former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who had already
served two consecutive terms, from 2005-2013, on Wednesday astonished
people both inside and outside of Iran by filling out and submitting
registration forms for the May 19 presidential election.
Ahmadinejad reversed an earlier decision not to run. In September of
last year, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said he would
not find it advisable for Ahmadinejad to seek a comeback to politics
"both for his own and the country’s good." At the time, Ahmadinejad
said that he would not run, but now he's changed his mind.
After filling out the registration forms on Wednesday, he made a "V
for Victory" sign and said, "The Leader advised me not to participate
in the elections, and I accepted. His advice, however, shouldn’t be
taken to mean that I’m banned."
There are three major categories of Iranian politicians, with
Ahmadinejad among the most hardline extreme, the "principlists," who
insist on adhering to the extreme "principles" of the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution. They are mostly in the old geezer generation of
survivors of the Revolution. They impose strict social laws, such as
requiring headscarves, forbidding unrelated male-female couples in
public, no street music in public, and so forth.
Iran's current president, Hassan Rouhani, is in the middle category
called the "moderates" or "pragmatists," who are often as hardline as
the principlists, but who are in favor of gradual reforms. (The
"reformists" are in the younger generations, and favor immediate
reforms.)
So it would seem that the major campaign battle will be the
principlist Ahmadinejad and the moderate Rouhani. But the Supreme
Leader, who is the principlist-in-chief, does not like Ahmadinejad,
and has put forth his own principlist candidate, Ebrahim Raisi. And
since Khamenei controls the Guardian Council, which has the final say
on who's allowed to run, it's expected that Khamenei will see to it
that Ahmadinejad is disqualified.
But wait! This is actually even more bizarre than it seems so far.
Ahmadinejad has made a statement that he is not really planning to run
for president, and has implied that the only reason that he's
registering to run is to support his former vice president Hamid
Baghaei.
In fact, Ahmadinejad put on a spectacular show on Wednesday.
Ahmadinejad walked Baghaei through the registration process,
ostensibly with no other purpose. But as soon as Baghaei registered,
Ahmadinejad started to leave, but then suddenly turned around, and
pulled out his own registration documents in front of a melee of
shouting journalists and stunned officials.
So how does this help Ahmadinejad's deputy Baghaei run for office? Because
Khamenei would find an excuse to disqualify Baghaei, in order to get
his own candidate Raisi to win. But with Ahmadinejad running,
Khamenei would have to disqualify both Ahmadinejad and Baghaei, and
that would apparently be too politically difficult.
And to top it off, another of Ahmadinejad's close allies, Esfandiar
Rahim-Mashaei, also registered to vote. So Khamenei would have to
disqualify Ahmadinejad and two of Ahmadinejad's allies.
When Ahmadinejad was first elected in 2005, he and Khamenei got along
well. But even principlists have policy differences, and by the time
of Ahmadinejad's reelection in 2009, Khamenei refused to give Ahmadinejad
the perfunctory kiss on the cheek. During Ahmadinejad's second term,
Khamenei repeatedly humiliated Ahmadinejad, and Ahmadinejad adopted
policies with the partial objective of infuriating Khamenei. There's
little doubt that what Ahmadinejad did on Wednesday will be
particularly infuriating to Khamenei. Tehran Times and AP
Related Articles
****
**** Ahmadinejad waits for the appearance of the Mahdi
****
As mentioned above, a top aide and close of friend of Ahmadinejad,
Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, also registered to run for president.
In 2009 Khamenei accused Mashaei and other Ahmadinejad aides of being
sorcerers, of using "supernatural powers," and of being "magicians"
and invoking djinns (spirits).
The charges of sorcery are related to the devout belief, held by
Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, in the Mahdaviat -- the Shia Muslim belief
that the Mahdi (or "the 12'th Imam" or "the Hidden Imam") is coming to
save mankind. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian
belief in the second coming of Christ, or the Buddhist belief in the
Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve
complete enlightenment. Ahmadinejad disobeyed Supreme Leader Khamenei
in several matters, which is considered to be equivalent to disobeying
God. But Ahmadinejad was just paving the way for the return of the
Hidden Imam, and was using his claim that the Hidden Imam's return is
imminent as a justification for disobeying Khamenei. Thus, the
charges of sorcery.
It's possible that the belief in the Mahdi is related to some of
Ahmadinejad's conspiracy theories.
Probably the most famous of his conspiracy theories is that the
Holocaust never occurred, but was put forth by a conspiracy of
Zionists.
On other occasions, he said that Osama bin Laden and George W. Bush
were friends, and that the West had engineered HIV aids.
That was far-fetched enough, but even more far-fetched was his claim
in 2012 that Western technology was preventing the rain from falling
in Iran:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Today our country is moving towards drought, which is
> partly unintentional due to industry and partly intentional, as a
> result of the enemy destroying the clouds moving towards our
> country and this is a war that Iran is going to overcome.
>
> I feel that the world arrogance and colonization, by using their
> technologies, are affecting the environmental situation in
> Iran."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
In 2007, Ahmadinejad gave a speech at Columbia University in New York,
and made this claim: "In Iran we don't have homosexuals like in your
country. In Iran we do not have this phenomenon. I do not know who
has told you we have it." He drew hysterical laughter.
As I've been writing for many years, Iran is basically a schizophrenic
nation. Its principlist top leadership, starting with the supreme
leader, are survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, an
extremely bloody civil war. Like generational crisis war survivors in
any country, these leaders imposed austere rules and institutions
designed to prevent another bloody civil war, and this has led them to
adopt a harsh anti-Western attitude. But the generations born after
the crisis war have no such motivation, and Iran's younger generations
are, in fact, reformists and generally pro-Western and have no
particular desire to see Israel pushed into the sea.
In the late 1990s, college students in these younger generations
started holding pro-Western and pro-American protests, during Iran's
generational Awakening era. Khamenei and the Iran hardliners brutally
suppressed those protests, but doing so didn't change minds. Today,
those students are in their 30s, and have risen to positions of power,
ready to take over when the current hardline leadership dies off.
They are generally pro-Western and pro-American, and consider Saudi
Arabia to be an existential threat. This is one of several reasons
why I've been saying for years that, in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, Iran will be an ally of the United States,
along with Russia and India, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni
Muslim countries. Newsweek and Al Monitor (15-Mar)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei,
Hassan Rouhani, Ebrahim Raisi, Hamid Baghaei,
Mahdaviat, Mahdi, 12'th Imam, Hidden Imam, Maitreya
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defies Supreme Leader and runs for president
- Ahmadinejad waits for the appearance of the Mahdi
****
**** Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defies Supreme Leader and runs for president
****
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gives a 'V for Victory' sign after registering on Wednesday to run for president
Iran's colorful former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who had already
served two consecutive terms, from 2005-2013, on Wednesday astonished
people both inside and outside of Iran by filling out and submitting
registration forms for the May 19 presidential election.
Ahmadinejad reversed an earlier decision not to run. In September of
last year, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said he would
not find it advisable for Ahmadinejad to seek a comeback to politics
"both for his own and the country’s good." At the time, Ahmadinejad
said that he would not run, but now he's changed his mind.
After filling out the registration forms on Wednesday, he made a "V
for Victory" sign and said, "The Leader advised me not to participate
in the elections, and I accepted. His advice, however, shouldn’t be
taken to mean that I’m banned."
There are three major categories of Iranian politicians, with
Ahmadinejad among the most hardline extreme, the "principlists," who
insist on adhering to the extreme "principles" of the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution. They are mostly in the old geezer generation of
survivors of the Revolution. They impose strict social laws, such as
requiring headscarves, forbidding unrelated male-female couples in
public, no street music in public, and so forth.
Iran's current president, Hassan Rouhani, is in the middle category
called the "moderates" or "pragmatists," who are often as hardline as
the principlists, but who are in favor of gradual reforms. (The
"reformists" are in the younger generations, and favor immediate
reforms.)
So it would seem that the major campaign battle will be the
principlist Ahmadinejad and the moderate Rouhani. But the Supreme
Leader, who is the principlist-in-chief, does not like Ahmadinejad,
and has put forth his own principlist candidate, Ebrahim Raisi. And
since Khamenei controls the Guardian Council, which has the final say
on who's allowed to run, it's expected that Khamenei will see to it
that Ahmadinejad is disqualified.
But wait! This is actually even more bizarre than it seems so far.
Ahmadinejad has made a statement that he is not really planning to run
for president, and has implied that the only reason that he's
registering to run is to support his former vice president Hamid
Baghaei.
In fact, Ahmadinejad put on a spectacular show on Wednesday.
Ahmadinejad walked Baghaei through the registration process,
ostensibly with no other purpose. But as soon as Baghaei registered,
Ahmadinejad started to leave, but then suddenly turned around, and
pulled out his own registration documents in front of a melee of
shouting journalists and stunned officials.
So how does this help Ahmadinejad's deputy Baghaei run for office? Because
Khamenei would find an excuse to disqualify Baghaei, in order to get
his own candidate Raisi to win. But with Ahmadinejad running,
Khamenei would have to disqualify both Ahmadinejad and Baghaei, and
that would apparently be too politically difficult.
And to top it off, another of Ahmadinejad's close allies, Esfandiar
Rahim-Mashaei, also registered to vote. So Khamenei would have to
disqualify Ahmadinejad and two of Ahmadinejad's allies.
When Ahmadinejad was first elected in 2005, he and Khamenei got along
well. But even principlists have policy differences, and by the time
of Ahmadinejad's reelection in 2009, Khamenei refused to give Ahmadinejad
the perfunctory kiss on the cheek. During Ahmadinejad's second term,
Khamenei repeatedly humiliated Ahmadinejad, and Ahmadinejad adopted
policies with the partial objective of infuriating Khamenei. There's
little doubt that what Ahmadinejad did on Wednesday will be
particularly infuriating to Khamenei. Tehran Times and AP
Related Articles
- Split between Ahmadinejad and Iran's hardliners widens (13-Sep-2010)
- As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious (06-Feb-2016)
- Iran's elections won by 'moderate' Hassan Rouhani (16-Jun-2013)
****
**** Ahmadinejad waits for the appearance of the Mahdi
****
As mentioned above, a top aide and close of friend of Ahmadinejad,
Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, also registered to run for president.
In 2009 Khamenei accused Mashaei and other Ahmadinejad aides of being
sorcerers, of using "supernatural powers," and of being "magicians"
and invoking djinns (spirits).
The charges of sorcery are related to the devout belief, held by
Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, in the Mahdaviat -- the Shia Muslim belief
that the Mahdi (or "the 12'th Imam" or "the Hidden Imam") is coming to
save mankind. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian
belief in the second coming of Christ, or the Buddhist belief in the
Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve
complete enlightenment. Ahmadinejad disobeyed Supreme Leader Khamenei
in several matters, which is considered to be equivalent to disobeying
God. But Ahmadinejad was just paving the way for the return of the
Hidden Imam, and was using his claim that the Hidden Imam's return is
imminent as a justification for disobeying Khamenei. Thus, the
charges of sorcery.
It's possible that the belief in the Mahdi is related to some of
Ahmadinejad's conspiracy theories.
Probably the most famous of his conspiracy theories is that the
Holocaust never occurred, but was put forth by a conspiracy of
Zionists.
On other occasions, he said that Osama bin Laden and George W. Bush
were friends, and that the West had engineered HIV aids.
That was far-fetched enough, but even more far-fetched was his claim
in 2012 that Western technology was preventing the rain from falling
in Iran:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Today our country is moving towards drought, which is
> partly unintentional due to industry and partly intentional, as a
> result of the enemy destroying the clouds moving towards our
> country and this is a war that Iran is going to overcome.
>
> I feel that the world arrogance and colonization, by using their
> technologies, are affecting the environmental situation in
> Iran."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
In 2007, Ahmadinejad gave a speech at Columbia University in New York,
and made this claim: "In Iran we don't have homosexuals like in your
country. In Iran we do not have this phenomenon. I do not know who
has told you we have it." He drew hysterical laughter.
As I've been writing for many years, Iran is basically a schizophrenic
nation. Its principlist top leadership, starting with the supreme
leader, are survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, an
extremely bloody civil war. Like generational crisis war survivors in
any country, these leaders imposed austere rules and institutions
designed to prevent another bloody civil war, and this has led them to
adopt a harsh anti-Western attitude. But the generations born after
the crisis war have no such motivation, and Iran's younger generations
are, in fact, reformists and generally pro-Western and have no
particular desire to see Israel pushed into the sea.
In the late 1990s, college students in these younger generations
started holding pro-Western and pro-American protests, during Iran's
generational Awakening era. Khamenei and the Iran hardliners brutally
suppressed those protests, but doing so didn't change minds. Today,
those students are in their 30s, and have risen to positions of power,
ready to take over when the current hardline leadership dies off.
They are generally pro-Western and pro-American, and consider Saudi
Arabia to be an existential threat. This is one of several reasons
why I've been saying for years that, in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, Iran will be an ally of the United States,
along with Russia and India, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni
Muslim countries. Newsweek and Al Monitor (15-Mar)
Related Articles
- Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent (07-May-2011)
- Iran's Supreme Leader tries to defeat the younger generation (23-May-2013)
- Generation gap splits Iran's government (30-Aug-2010)
- Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue (09-Nov-2009)
- A generational explanation of Iran's political crisis (23-Jun-2009)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei,
Hassan Rouhani, Ebrahim Raisi, Hamid Baghaei,
Mahdaviat, Mahdi, 12'th Imam, Hidden Imam, Maitreya
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
