04-13-2017, 09:54 PM
*** 14-Apr-17 World View -- North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday
****
![[Image: g170413b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170413b.jpg)
People in Seoul, South Korea, watch a TV news program showing a file image of the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier on Wednesday (AP)
In North Korea, Saturday April 15 is called "The Day of the Sun."
It's the 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder, Kim
Il-Sung, whose name means "Sun of the Nation."
Kim Il-Sung was the grandfather of the current child dictator,
Kim Jong-un. Kim likes to do provocative things on a regular basis,
and particular likes to do something spectacular on April 15.
Japan's fifth nuclear test was conducted on Sept. 9, 2016. According
to a new report from the North Korea monitoring group 38North, North
Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site is "primed and ready," based on
satellite imagery captured two days ago. This suggests that North
Korea's sixth nuclear test may occur on Saturday, or in the near
future. Other possible dates in the near future are April 25, the
85th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army, or May
9, the date of South Korea's presidential election.
But a lot of analysts will be very surprised if North Korea doesn't
perform a new nuclear test, possibly along with some new ballistic
missile tests, some time in the next month.
If Kim Jong-un does do something provocative and spectacular, many
people are wondering how the United States will respond, particularly
since President Donald Trump ordered the missile strike in Syria,
after Syria's government killed hundreds of people with a Sarin gas
attack two ago, and after Trump ordered the Carl Vinson aircraft
carrier strike group to the Korean Peninsula.
On Thursday, Trump wrote a tweet that he believes China will be able
to rein in the North. "I have great confidence that China will
properly deal with North Korea. If they are unable to do so, the
U.S., with its allies, will! U.S.A." 38 North and Pravda (Moscow) and Washington Post
Related Articles
****
**** Japan's Shinzo Abe: N. Korea may be able to attack Japan with Sarin gas missile
****
Japan, which is the only country in the world to have been hit by a
nuclear weapon, is particularly concerned about being attacked by a
North Korean nuclear weapon. Tensions have been particularly raised
by North Korea's repeated tests of ballistic missiles launched in the
direction of Japan. None of the tests has struck Japanese soil, but
some have reached the Sea of Japan.
Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party
has been advocating a proposal to develop the capability to directly
attack North Korean military bases. Japan is still bound by a post
World War II pacifist constitution that permits military action only
for defensive purposes, and so Abe emphasized that Japan has no plan
to acquire such powerful weapons and would never launch a pre-emptive
strike against any country.
However, Abe pointed out that North Korea could attack Japan with
Sarin gas:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"There is a possibility that North Korea has the
> ability to hit (Japan) with a ballistic missile carrying sarin in
> its warhead."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Abe pointed to the Syria's sarin gas attack last week, where "nearly
100 innocent people, including children and babies, were victimized."
Just as Japan was the target of a nuclear weapon, Japan has also been
the object of a sarin gas attack. Members of a Japanese doomsday cult
killed 12 people and made thousands ill in 1995 in simultaneous
attacks with sarin nerve gas on five Tokyo rush-hour subway trains.
Concerns have been growing about North Korea’s chemical weapons
capabilities since Kim Jong-un's estranged half brother, Kim Jong-nam,
was killed with VX nerve agent in Malaysia in February.
According to Yoshihide Suga, Abe’s top aide, "North Korea is thought
to maintain multiple facilities that are capable of producing chemical
weapons and already hold a sizable amount of chemical weapons."
The South Korean Defense Ministry has estimated that Pyongyang, which
reportedly started producing chemical weapons in the 1980s, now owns
2,500 to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, including the lethal nerve
agents sarin and VX. Japan Times and Reuters
Related Articles
****
**** China's tripwires for invading North Korea
****
In 1961, China and North Korea sign a mutual defense treaty that
specifies that if one of the parties comes under armed attack, the
other should render immediate assistance, including military support.
It's this umbrella of protection that has allowed North Korea to make
increasingly provocative acts, knowing that China is required by
treaty to protect it. In 2010, North Korea launched a missile attack
on the South Korean warship Cheonan, killing 46 people, and then North
Korea shelled South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, killing four South
Koreans. These were both clearly acts of war, but China staunchly
defended North Korea, and South Korea was unable to retaliate.
However, it's been clear that China has been running out of patience
with North Korea's renegade leader Kim Jong-un, who has been
conducting nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests that violations
of international law and are strongly opposed by China. So analysts
are wondering under what circumstances China would invade North Korea,
either to defend it against South Korea and the US, or to take control
of North Korea for its own purposes.
An analysis by the Hong Kong based South China Morning Post
suggests that China is no longer obliged to defend North Korea
from military attack under the 1961 treaty, since North
Korea has repeatedly violated the treaty.
The treaty requires both nations to safeguard peace and security, and
for China, North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons in violation
of the United Nations treaty on non-proliferation could amount to a
breach of their pact, leaving Beijing with no obligation to lend a
hand.
According to Li Jie, a retired Chinese naval colonel:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It’s hard to say how China would assist North Korea
> militarily in case of war, since North Korea is developing nuclear
> weapons, an act that might have already breached the treaty
> between the two nations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
A different analysis in Chinese state sponsored Global Times
acknowledges that North Korea's development of nuclear weapons
is intolerable to the United States, and notes that Trump
has warned that if China doesn't take care of North Korea's
nuclear weapons, then the US will.
According to the analysis, China would be willing to impose even
harsher sanctions on North Korea, including the devastating sanction
of ending oil imports, if China continues its illegal testing:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"If Pyongyang conducts its sixth nuclear test in the
> near future, the possibility of US military action against it will
> be higher than ever. Not only is Washington brimming with
> confidence and arrogance following the missile attacks on Syria,
> but Trump is also willing to be regarded as a man who honors his
> promises.
>
> Now the Trump team seems to have decided to solve the North Korean
> nuclear crisis. As the discussion runs deeper, a situation of
> no-solution will not be accepted.
>
> A new nuclear test or an intercontinental ballistic missile test,
> if conducted by Pyongyang at this time, will be a slap in the face
> of the US government and will intensify the confrontation between
> North Korea and the US.
>
> Presumably Beijing will react strongly to Pyongyang's new nuclear
> actions. China will not remain indifferent to Pyongyang's
> aggravating violation of the UN Security Council (UNSC)
> resolution.
>
> More and more Chinese support the view that the government should
> enhance sanctions over Pyongyang's nuclear activities. If the
> North makes another provocative move this month, the Chinese
> society will be willing to see the UNSC adopt severe restrictive
> measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil
> imports to the North. Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program is
> intended for securing the regime, however, it is reaching a
> tipping point. Pyongyang hopes its gamble will work, but all signs
> point to the opposite direction.
>
> The US is making up its mind to stop the North from conducting
> further nuclear tests. It doesn't plan to co-exist with a
> nuclear-armed Pyongyang."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
A third analysis was performed by KGS Nightwatch by examining some
Chinese government and military newsletters that have addressed North
Korea's nuclear weapons development in recent days. This analysis
addresses a different question: Under what circumstances would
China intervene militarily in North Korea. There are four
tripwires listed in the analysis:
South Korea's media reported earlier this week that the Chinese army
has deployed about 150,000 troops in two groups to northeastern China
near the Yalu River, "to prepare for unforeseen circumstances," in
view of the arrival of the Carl Vinson strike force.
However, China has denied deploying these troops.
There's a surreal quality of fantasy about these reports of Chinese
military actions. China is planning this or that military action with
no fear of losses or of international retribution, as if the Chinese
were invincible. And whenever I read about China's military plans
about anything, I get the feeling of invincibility, as if they're
saying, "All we want is peace and stability, so just do as we command
you to do and there will always be peace and stability; and if you
don't, then we'll just kill you, and we'll get peace and stability
that way."
So let's make it clear. Any of the military actions discussed in this
article, even a "small" military action, will spiral into something
bigger in this generational Crisis era, and will spiral further into a
world war within weeks or at most a few months. Nobody is invicible
here, and China would be worse off than many, because it would be
fighting both a civil war and an external war. I've estimated that a
world war will kill 3-4 billion people from nuclear weapons, ground
war, disease and starvation, leaving 3-4 billion traumatized people
behind to hold peace conferences and rebuild the world. South China Monring Post (Hong Kong) and Global Times (Beijing) and KGS Nightwatch and Chosun (South Korea) (Trans) and Global Times (Beijing)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Day of the Sun, Kim Il-Sung,
Kim Jong-un, 38 North, Punggye-ri, Carl Vinson carrier strike group,
Syria, Sarin gas, VX nerve agent, Japan, Shinzo Abe, Kim Jong-nam,
South Korea, China, Cheonan, Yeonpyeong Island
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday
- Japan's Shinzo Abe: N. Korea may be able to attack Japan with Sarin gas missile
- China's tripwires for invading North Korea
****
**** North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday
****
People in Seoul, South Korea, watch a TV news program showing a file image of the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier on Wednesday (AP)
In North Korea, Saturday April 15 is called "The Day of the Sun."
It's the 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder, Kim
Il-Sung, whose name means "Sun of the Nation."
Kim Il-Sung was the grandfather of the current child dictator,
Kim Jong-un. Kim likes to do provocative things on a regular basis,
and particular likes to do something spectacular on April 15.
Japan's fifth nuclear test was conducted on Sept. 9, 2016. According
to a new report from the North Korea monitoring group 38North, North
Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site is "primed and ready," based on
satellite imagery captured two days ago. This suggests that North
Korea's sixth nuclear test may occur on Saturday, or in the near
future. Other possible dates in the near future are April 25, the
85th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army, or May
9, the date of South Korea's presidential election.
But a lot of analysts will be very surprised if North Korea doesn't
perform a new nuclear test, possibly along with some new ballistic
missile tests, some time in the next month.
If Kim Jong-un does do something provocative and spectacular, many
people are wondering how the United States will respond, particularly
since President Donald Trump ordered the missile strike in Syria,
after Syria's government killed hundreds of people with a Sarin gas
attack two ago, and after Trump ordered the Carl Vinson aircraft
carrier strike group to the Korean Peninsula.
On Thursday, Trump wrote a tweet that he believes China will be able
to rein in the North. "I have great confidence that China will
properly deal with North Korea. If they are unable to do so, the
U.S., with its allies, will! U.S.A." 38 North and Pravda (Moscow) and Washington Post
Related Articles
- South Korea announces 'Massive Punishment and Retaliation' and decapitation for N. Korea (12-Sep-2016)
- Why is a US carrier group strike force going to the Korean peninsula? (11-Apr-2017)
- North Korea threatens new artillery strikes on Yeonpyeong Island (18-Dec-2010)
- North Korea denies sinking South Korean warship Cheonan (18-Apr-2010)
****
**** Japan's Shinzo Abe: N. Korea may be able to attack Japan with Sarin gas missile
****
Japan, which is the only country in the world to have been hit by a
nuclear weapon, is particularly concerned about being attacked by a
North Korean nuclear weapon. Tensions have been particularly raised
by North Korea's repeated tests of ballistic missiles launched in the
direction of Japan. None of the tests has struck Japanese soil, but
some have reached the Sea of Japan.
Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party
has been advocating a proposal to develop the capability to directly
attack North Korean military bases. Japan is still bound by a post
World War II pacifist constitution that permits military action only
for defensive purposes, and so Abe emphasized that Japan has no plan
to acquire such powerful weapons and would never launch a pre-emptive
strike against any country.
However, Abe pointed out that North Korea could attack Japan with
Sarin gas:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"There is a possibility that North Korea has the
> ability to hit (Japan) with a ballistic missile carrying sarin in
> its warhead."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Abe pointed to the Syria's sarin gas attack last week, where "nearly
100 innocent people, including children and babies, were victimized."
Just as Japan was the target of a nuclear weapon, Japan has also been
the object of a sarin gas attack. Members of a Japanese doomsday cult
killed 12 people and made thousands ill in 1995 in simultaneous
attacks with sarin nerve gas on five Tokyo rush-hour subway trains.
Concerns have been growing about North Korea’s chemical weapons
capabilities since Kim Jong-un's estranged half brother, Kim Jong-nam,
was killed with VX nerve agent in Malaysia in February.
According to Yoshihide Suga, Abe’s top aide, "North Korea is thought
to maintain multiple facilities that are capable of producing chemical
weapons and already hold a sizable amount of chemical weapons."
The South Korean Defense Ministry has estimated that Pyongyang, which
reportedly started producing chemical weapons in the 1980s, now owns
2,500 to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, including the lethal nerve
agents sarin and VX. Japan Times and Reuters
Related Articles
- Japan's largest warship will train with US Navy in the South China Sea (14-Mar-2017)
- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan (05-May-2014)
- China reacts harshly to Japan's plans for 'collective self-defense' (18-Jul-2015)
****
**** China's tripwires for invading North Korea
****
In 1961, China and North Korea sign a mutual defense treaty that
specifies that if one of the parties comes under armed attack, the
other should render immediate assistance, including military support.
It's this umbrella of protection that has allowed North Korea to make
increasingly provocative acts, knowing that China is required by
treaty to protect it. In 2010, North Korea launched a missile attack
on the South Korean warship Cheonan, killing 46 people, and then North
Korea shelled South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, killing four South
Koreans. These were both clearly acts of war, but China staunchly
defended North Korea, and South Korea was unable to retaliate.
However, it's been clear that China has been running out of patience
with North Korea's renegade leader Kim Jong-un, who has been
conducting nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests that violations
of international law and are strongly opposed by China. So analysts
are wondering under what circumstances China would invade North Korea,
either to defend it against South Korea and the US, or to take control
of North Korea for its own purposes.
An analysis by the Hong Kong based South China Morning Post
suggests that China is no longer obliged to defend North Korea
from military attack under the 1961 treaty, since North
Korea has repeatedly violated the treaty.
The treaty requires both nations to safeguard peace and security, and
for China, North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons in violation
of the United Nations treaty on non-proliferation could amount to a
breach of their pact, leaving Beijing with no obligation to lend a
hand.
According to Li Jie, a retired Chinese naval colonel:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It’s hard to say how China would assist North Korea
> militarily in case of war, since North Korea is developing nuclear
> weapons, an act that might have already breached the treaty
> between the two nations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
A different analysis in Chinese state sponsored Global Times
acknowledges that North Korea's development of nuclear weapons
is intolerable to the United States, and notes that Trump
has warned that if China doesn't take care of North Korea's
nuclear weapons, then the US will.
According to the analysis, China would be willing to impose even
harsher sanctions on North Korea, including the devastating sanction
of ending oil imports, if China continues its illegal testing:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"If Pyongyang conducts its sixth nuclear test in the
> near future, the possibility of US military action against it will
> be higher than ever. Not only is Washington brimming with
> confidence and arrogance following the missile attacks on Syria,
> but Trump is also willing to be regarded as a man who honors his
> promises.
>
> Now the Trump team seems to have decided to solve the North Korean
> nuclear crisis. As the discussion runs deeper, a situation of
> no-solution will not be accepted.
>
> A new nuclear test or an intercontinental ballistic missile test,
> if conducted by Pyongyang at this time, will be a slap in the face
> of the US government and will intensify the confrontation between
> North Korea and the US.
>
> Presumably Beijing will react strongly to Pyongyang's new nuclear
> actions. China will not remain indifferent to Pyongyang's
> aggravating violation of the UN Security Council (UNSC)
> resolution.
>
> More and more Chinese support the view that the government should
> enhance sanctions over Pyongyang's nuclear activities. If the
> North makes another provocative move this month, the Chinese
> society will be willing to see the UNSC adopt severe restrictive
> measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil
> imports to the North. Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program is
> intended for securing the regime, however, it is reaching a
> tipping point. Pyongyang hopes its gamble will work, but all signs
> point to the opposite direction.
>
> The US is making up its mind to stop the North from conducting
> further nuclear tests. It doesn't plan to co-exist with a
> nuclear-armed Pyongyang."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
A third analysis was performed by KGS Nightwatch by examining some
Chinese government and military newsletters that have addressed North
Korea's nuclear weapons development in recent days. This analysis
addresses a different question: Under what circumstances would
China intervene militarily in North Korea. There are four
tripwires listed in the analysis:
- Nuclear pollution. China will tolerate no pollution in
northeastern China from North Korean nuclear activity. China has
enormous investments to develop northeastern China, and any nuclear
pollution for a North Korean nuclear test would be cause for military
action. In the worst case scenario, there may be something similar to
Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster or the Soviet Union's Chernobyl
nuclear disaster, both of which cause massive nuclear pollution.
- North Korean refugees. China will not allow North Korean
refugees to enter China in the event of internal turmoil in North
Korea. The Chinese have repeatedly indicated that they will not
support a North Korean refugee population on Chinese soil. In a
crisis, the People's Liberation Army would prevent border crossings
and would supervise large safe zones inside North Korea.
- Government. China will not tolerate a government in
Pyongyang that is hostile to China, in a situation where the Kim
administration has collapsed, been murdered or abdicated.
- US military. The US must not push its forces to the Yalu
River, which forms the border between China and North Korea. This
presumes that American-led forces would move into North Korea to
prevent the spread of chaos, disease and refugees from a North Korean
collapse or defeat in a war. This seems to suggest that China might
not oppose US soldiers as far north as the capital city Pyongyang to
help stabilize North Korea. China might also permit South Korean
soldiers on the Yalu River.
South Korea's media reported earlier this week that the Chinese army
has deployed about 150,000 troops in two groups to northeastern China
near the Yalu River, "to prepare for unforeseen circumstances," in
view of the arrival of the Carl Vinson strike force.
However, China has denied deploying these troops.
There's a surreal quality of fantasy about these reports of Chinese
military actions. China is planning this or that military action with
no fear of losses or of international retribution, as if the Chinese
were invincible. And whenever I read about China's military plans
about anything, I get the feeling of invincibility, as if they're
saying, "All we want is peace and stability, so just do as we command
you to do and there will always be peace and stability; and if you
don't, then we'll just kill you, and we'll get peace and stability
that way."
So let's make it clear. Any of the military actions discussed in this
article, even a "small" military action, will spiral into something
bigger in this generational Crisis era, and will spiral further into a
world war within weeks or at most a few months. Nobody is invicible
here, and China would be worse off than many, because it would be
fighting both a civil war and an external war. I've estimated that a
world war will kill 3-4 billion people from nuclear weapons, ground
war, disease and starvation, leaving 3-4 billion traumatized people
behind to hold peace conferences and rebuild the world. South China Monring Post (Hong Kong) and Global Times (Beijing) and KGS Nightwatch and Chosun (South Korea) (Trans) and Global Times (Beijing)
Related Articles
- China's South China Sea policy related to food security in times of war (06-Mar-2017)
- Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role (09-Apr-2017)
- US aircraft carrier strike force heads for Korean peninsula (10-Apr-2017)
- New book, 'Unhappy China,' stokes Chinese nationalism and anti-Americanism. (12-Apr-2009)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Day of the Sun, Kim Il-Sung,
Kim Jong-un, 38 North, Punggye-ri, Carl Vinson carrier strike group,
Syria, Sarin gas, VX nerve agent, Japan, Shinzo Abe, Kim Jong-nam,
South Korea, China, Cheonan, Yeonpyeong Island
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
