04-17-2017, 09:06 AM
(04-17-2017, 01:40 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > John X , how do you explain the fact that the Iraqi forces
> collapsed like a house of cards in both 1991 and in 2003? How do
> you explain the defeat of Noriega's forces in 1989? There is also
> the fact that the most difficult period of the Iraq war from (2004
> to 2007) occurred precisely because the US did not have sufficient
> forces on the ground and also the fact that the Sunnis had been
> excluded from the government. Things improved rapidly after 2007
> when more troops were added and the Sunnis were allowed into the
> government although the true fanatics among the insurgents fled
> into the desert and joined what eventually became ISIS.
Iraq's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the
1980s, climaxing in Saddam's 1988 chemical weapons attack.
So in 1991 and 2003, Iraq was still in a first turning Recovery
era, which explains why his army collapsed so quickly.
After 2004, Iraq entered a generational Awakening era. I wrote
about this many, many times, most recently last year:
** 2-May-16 World View -- Iraq government faces climatic Awakening era political crisis
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e160502
My seminal article on the Iraq war was this one from April 2007:
** Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...070401.htm
As that article explains, the "surge" was important, but the reason
that things turned around is because the Sunni Iraqis themselves
turned against al-Qaeda.
There's some interesting stuff in that article that's fascinating from
the point of view of generational theory.
The Iraq war after 2004 was not being fought by Iraqis. Iraqis were
refusing to fight, much to the enormous frustration of Jordanian
terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who had to keep important fighters
from Saudi Arabia, which was in a Crisis era.
Another major frustration for al-Zarqawi is that Iraqi parents refused
to allow their children to become suicide bombers, so once again he
had to import suicide bombers from other countries.
What's REALLY fascinating about this is that the Taliban in
Afghanistan had exactly the same problem. There were Afghan suicide
bombers, but they were described as the "world's worst suicide
bombers," because they would only blow themselves up, and not others.
I think that the use of suicide bombers is the key to understanding a
lot of generational behavior during the various turnings. During the
first turning, young people shun becoming suicide bombers. During the
fifth turning, young people seek out the opportunity to become suicide
bombers.
I wrote a lot about this subject after the 7/7/2005 London subway
bombings, which were perpetrated by young people from fifth turning
countries.
** Belgians shocked that suicide bomber is Belgian woman (2-Dec-2005)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e051202
** Robert Pape's 'Dying to Win' sheds light on suicide bombers (18-July-2005)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...18pape.htm
(04-17-2017, 02:11 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Saddam no longer had WMDs by 2003. The fact that 200,000 Americans
> were charging straight at him and he was facing death if defeated
> and even then not a single WMD or anything that smacks of a WMD
> was used is the biggest proof one can see of the lack of an Iraqi
> WMD arsenal.
Anyone who thinks that the Iraq war was a mistake should be held
accountable for his willingness at that time to allow Saddam Hussein
to kill tens of thousands of people with weapons of mass destruction.
People who say that the Iraq war should not have occurred suffer from
a mental deficit. The only reason we know today that Saddam Hussein
wasn't developing WMDs is because of the war. So if the war hadn't
occurred, then Saddam could have freely developed WMDs, and we
presumably wouldn't know to this day whether he was doing so -- which
he almost certainly would be doing.
** 29-Oct-15 World View -- Iran's government splits over implementation of nuclear deal
** Khamenei's nuclear fatwa and the Iraq war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151029
Oh geez, I'm so sick of arguing about the Iraq war, though I guess it
was good to pull all this stuff together. Hopefully it will all be
useful in some upcoming article.
